so why quarantine? (Read 4538 times)

drck1000

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #20 on: August 06, 2020, 12:58:02 AM »
:facepalm:

ren

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #21 on: August 06, 2020, 07:43:32 AM »
IIRC the infection numbers for the past week have been setting new records so not sure how the curve is a pancake.

the "curve" looks at balancing cases against current medical resources but there is a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding about this "curve" people are generally referring to.
It is not about getting to ZERO infections which is not realistic.
To understand the potential trajectory of the viral infection one will look at the Rt rate and epi curves.
Deeds Not Words

Kuleana

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #22 on: August 06, 2020, 07:57:33 AM »
When prevention is (1) unattainable without a vaccine, (2) never going to be 100%, and (3) worse than the disease, then you have to rethink your analysis.
100% prevention is not attainable, but universal use of PPE goes along way to manage Covid-19, until a safe and reliable vaccine can be found and given to the public.



The bad economy is already increasing the death toll as a side-effect of "prevention".  People are afraid to seek medical help out of fear they will be preventing someone with COVID-19 from getting help, or because they are terrified of getting the virus -- so they stay home.
Did you get that information from the CDC or WHO?  I don't recall anyone doing a large scale study on those issues.  Last time I checked, most of the medical establishments' research activities are devoted in studying the biological effects of Covid-19 itself.



Mental health is also declining.  Suicides are up.  Crime, including violent crime, is up.  People who can't pay their bills, rent, mortgage, car payments are under stress.  Stress kills.
Are you putting the blame of all those items at the doorstep of Covid-19.

If you are, you are no different than the corrupt doctors in the hospitals, who are guilty of tagging any death they come across to Covid-19 for profit.



Things are not as simple as you seem to want to believe.
I think that is something you should consider.     :thumbsup:

tillamook

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #23 on: August 06, 2020, 07:58:29 AM »

The bad economy is already increasing the death toll as a side-effect of "prevention".  People are afraid to seek medical help out of fear they will be preventing someone with COVID-19 from getting help, or because they are terrified of getting the virus -- so they stay home.


Not true in my area.  I am overwhelmed with patients in my clinic.   I am still doing telemed for about 25% of the patients but the rest want to come in.   This was true early on that people did not get care because of fear of covid or not wanting to take a hospital bed from someone with covid but now they are overwhelming us. 

Other factors are at play.  remember that the state fired 2 of the 3 state psychiatrists for the Big Island due to lack of funding the same week the legislature passed the bill funding the gun commission. 
The Big Island lost 32 physicians since January, my area is down 8 physicians, they are all leaving.   This state is a terrible place for a doctor to work and if we are losing physicians who are going back to the mainland during a pandemic where we have low covid numbers then there is a major problem with healthcare already in this state. 

Yes the economy is terrible.   But the answer isnt pretend covid does not exist and open everything up.   The US is losing 4 times as many Americans a day as we did in WWII.  You cant possible be someone who would look at the shift in the war economy in WWII and say "we really need to be stopping all this and open up the bars"

Hawaii does not have the healthcare system to handle covid even at the small numbers.  One Honolulu hospital is already down to having 2 free ICU beds.   At the current rate 2-3 weeks we will not have enough beds, and more importantly, not enough doctors to help people.    Hawaii loses 200 doctors a year that are not replaced.  This year is already looking worse for that number.   

If we open everything up and pretend nothing is wrong and overwhelm the severely limited healthcare systems in this state then everyone who may need a hospital for any reason will be in trouble. 

Quote
Things are not as simple as you seem to want to believe.

no they are not.   

groveler

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #24 on: August 06, 2020, 09:17:47 AM »
Not true in my area.  I am overwhelmed with patients in my clinic.   I am still doing telemed for about 25% of the patients but the rest want to come in.   This was true early on that people did not get care because of fear of covid or not wanting to take a hospital bed from someone with covid but now they are overwhelming us. 

Other factors are at play.  remember that the state fired 2 of the 3 state psychiatrists for the Big Island due to lack of funding the same week the legislature passed the bill funding the gun commission. 
The Big Island lost 32 physicians since January, my area is down 8 physicians, they are all leaving.   This state is a terrible place for a doctor to work and if we are losing physicians who are going back to the mainland during a pandemic where we have low covid numbers then there is a major problem with healthcare already in this state. 

Yes the economy is terrible.   But the answer isnt pretend covid does not exist and open everything up.   The US is losing 4 times as many Americans a day as we did in WWII.  You cant possible be someone who would look at the shift in the war economy in WWII and say "we really need to be stopping all this and open up the bars"

Hawaii does not have the healthcare system to handle covid even at the small numbers.  One Honolulu hospital is already down to having 2 free ICU beds.   At the current rate 2-3 weeks we will not have enough beds, and more importantly, not enough doctors to help people.    Hawaii loses 200 doctors a year that are not replaced.  This year is already looking worse for that number.   

If we open everything up and pretend nothing is wrong and overwhelm the severely limited healthcare systems in this state then everyone who may need a hospital for any reason will be in trouble. 

no they are not.   
From a medical point of view what you say makes a lot of sense.
I'm not a doctor, but I suspect the losses will continue because there
is not much of a Medical community here on the BI and they just don't
get paid comparably to doctors working on the mainland.
Full disclosure;  my uncle was a San Francisco area Plastic surgeon
and a past president of the local bay area AMA there.

On the Quarantine subject.  I recently had to accompany my wife to Honolulu
to get her cataracts fixed(She is covered by Kaiser).
I really got tired of filling out BS forms. This straight from the STASI Former
East German police.
It reminds me of the Ben Franklin quote
"Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary
safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."
I'll take my chances with liberty.
You are a doctor and know the chances of finding a vaccine for this cv19 is very
remote and you understand there is another virus in the very near
future, just as bad as this one, it too will have no vaccine.
However this state is full of Democrats that
don't have a concept of liberty, so I plan for more "quarantines" and lockdowns.
Thankfully the most of kind of businesses that will fail because of this "Temporary
safety" action are ones I don't use or need.
Doesn't help my neighbors much,
but they elected the government they want
and pay for the government they get.



Flapp_Jackson

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #25 on: August 06, 2020, 08:00:25 PM »
Fear of seeking treatment isn't going to keep everyone in every state from seeing a doctor for other ailments, and it isn't going to be as widespread in less densely populated locations, but it is happening ...


A new issue is making it harder for doctors to treat COVID-19 patients
in San Antonio: Patients who don't come in at all.


Health officials say fear of contracting the virus is keeping sick people away from hospitals until it's too late.

https://www.kens5.com/article/news/health/a-new-issue-is-making-it-harder-for-doctors-to-treat-covid-19-patients-in-san-antonio-patients-who-dont-come-in-at-all/273-75cc02da-6b3e-44e5-a350-918eaf03449a

COVID-19 fears possible reason for 'dramatic drop' in cardiac patients seeking care
-- doctors


https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/covid-19-fears-possible-reason-for-dramatic-drop-in-cardiac-patients-seeking-care-doctors-1.4897720

Quote
TORONTO -- There is mounting concern among doctors and health-care professionals that patients with serious heart problems
are putting off critical hospital visits or treatment because they’re afraid of contracting the coronavirus.
(^^^ And this is where gov't healthcare is provided!)

Coronavirus: In Jacksonville area, unfounded fear prompting public to delay treatment
of other medical conditions


https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2020/05/01/coronavirus-in-jacksonville-area-unfounded-fear-prompting-public-to-delay-treatment-of-other-medical-conditions/112278018/
"How can you diagnose someone with an obsessive-compulsive disorder
and then act as though I had some choice about barging in?"
-- Melvin Udall

Kuleana

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #26 on: August 07, 2020, 09:04:39 AM »
Fear of seeking treatment isn't going to keep everyone in every state from seeing a doctor for other ailments, and it isn't going to be as widespread in less densely populated locations, but it is happening ...


A new issue is making it harder for doctors to treat COVID-19 patients
in San Antonio: Patients who don't come in at all.


Health officials say fear of contracting the virus is keeping sick people away from hospitals until it's too late.

https://www.kens5.com/article/news/health/a-new-issue-is-making-it-harder-for-doctors-to-treat-covid-19-patients-in-san-antonio-patients-who-dont-come-in-at-all/273-75cc02da-6b3e-44e5-a350-918eaf03449a

COVID-19 fears possible reason for 'dramatic drop' in cardiac patients seeking care
-- doctors


https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/covid-19-fears-possible-reason-for-dramatic-drop-in-cardiac-patients-seeking-care-doctors-1.4897720
(^^^ And this is where gov't healthcare is provided!)

Coronavirus: In Jacksonville area, unfounded fear prompting public to delay treatment
of other medical conditions


https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2020/05/01/coronavirus-in-jacksonville-area-unfounded-fear-prompting-public-to-delay-treatment-of-other-medical-conditions/112278018/

It must have took you all day to find these articles.

Good work!  I am impressed!      :thumbsup:

However, three articles representing three places that report the anecdotal beliefs of some medical professionals is not enough valid research to make conclusions for the population, at-large.

Flapp_Jackson

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #27 on: August 07, 2020, 12:15:19 PM »
It must have took you all day to find these articles.

Good work!  I am impressed!      :thumbsup:

However, three articles representing three places that report the anecdotal beliefs of some medical professionals is not enough valid research to make conclusions for the population, at-large.

If by "must have taken you all day" you meant it would have taken YOU all day, I believe it.

Took all of one query on a search engine to return page after page of articles.

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=fear+of+covid+prevents+sick+from+seeking+treatment&atb=v231-7rk&ia=web&iai=r1-10&page=2&adx=prdsdc&sexp=%7B%22v7exp%22%3A%22a%22%2C%22sltexp%22%3A%22b%22%2C%22prodexp%22%3A%22b%22%2C%22prdsdexp%22%3A%22c%22%2C%22wiadrk%22%3A%22b%22%7D
"How can you diagnose someone with an obsessive-compulsive disorder
and then act as though I had some choice about barging in?"
-- Melvin Udall

Kuleana

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #28 on: August 08, 2020, 09:34:03 AM »
If by "must have taken you all day" you meant it would have taken YOU all day, I believe it.

Took all of one query on a search engine to return page after page of articles.

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=fear+of+covid+prevents+sick+from+seeking+treatment&atb=v231-7rk&ia=web&iai=r1-10&page=2&adx=prdsdc&sexp=%7B%22v7exp%22%3A%22a%22%2C%22sltexp%22%3A%22b%22%2C%22prodexp%22%3A%22b%22%2C%22prdsdexp%22%3A%22c%22%2C%22wiadrk%22%3A%22b%22%7D

I stand corrected; I should have known better than to question this forum's fastest Google Fu Master, as Hound correctly identified.      :worship:

eyeeatingfish

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #29 on: August 08, 2020, 09:55:41 AM »
the "curve" looks at balancing cases against current medical resources but there is a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding about this "curve" people are generally referring to.
It is not about getting to ZERO infections which is not realistic.
To understand the potential trajectory of the viral infection one will look at the Rt rate and epi curves.

A good point. Infection rate is only part of the complete picture. What I was referring to when I said curve was the overall infection rate and not compared to available medical resources.

Overall though even with our spike our numbers are quite good compared to much of the rest of the country although our spike is looking bad compared to other states in the short run.

Flapp_Jackson

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #30 on: August 08, 2020, 02:30:57 PM »
I stand corrected; I should have known better than to question this forum's fastest Google Fu Master, as Hound correctly identified.      :worship:

Even a blind dog accidentally finds a morsel on occasion!.
"How can you diagnose someone with an obsessive-compulsive disorder
and then act as though I had some choice about barging in?"
-- Melvin Udall