so why quarantine? (Read 4577 times)

ren

so why quarantine?
« on: August 04, 2020, 10:48:06 AM »
Deeds Not Words

eyeeatingfish

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #1 on: August 04, 2020, 10:15:29 PM »
Why quarantine? To keep it from getting worse.

Flapp_Jackson

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #2 on: August 04, 2020, 10:17:19 PM »
Why quarantine? To keep it from getting worse.

Forever?

Silly rabbit.
"How can you diagnose someone with an obsessive-compulsive disorder
and then act as though I had some choice about barging in?"
-- Melvin Udall

eyeeatingfish

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #3 on: August 04, 2020, 10:31:00 PM »
Forever?

Silly rabbit.

Of course not forever.
Are you not familiar with the concept of flattening the curve? The Spanish Flu lasted for a whole year, we might expect to see something that long with this one too.

Flapp_Jackson

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #4 on: August 04, 2020, 11:37:21 PM »
Of course not forever.
Are you not familiar with the concept of flattening the curve? The Spanish Flu lasted for a whole year, we might expect to see something that long with this one too.

Apparently you aren't.

The curve is almost a pancake now.  No overwhelming of hospitals and healthcare services.  That's the ONLY reason for the flattening: to avoid having more sick at once than we can care for.

New York had the largest infected population and highest infection rate.  We provided so many ventilators, beds and facilities (temporary hospital and a giant medical ship), but neither the extra hospital or ship was used.

So, if there's no curve, nothing needs flattening.  What's the criteria again for stopping these restrictions -- now that your first try was wrong?

Try again.

https://www.newsweek.com/new-york-governor-andrew-cuomo-praises-donald-trump-responding-very-quickly-coronavirus-outbreak-1492570
« Last Edit: August 04, 2020, 11:43:06 PM by Flapp_Jackson »
"How can you diagnose someone with an obsessive-compulsive disorder
and then act as though I had some choice about barging in?"
-- Melvin Udall

Rocky

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2020, 08:31:35 AM »

   As for quarantining, it's a joke here.
Really tired of hearing "it's the tourist's"
I've seen nothing but groups of 15-100 locals at the beach, parks and homes.
No face masks, plenty of hugs and aloha.
 :shaka:

  And when I checked Monday, HI had 240 flu deaths.
Flu we have a vaccine for !
 :wacko:
“I ask you to judge me by the enemies I have made.”
                                                           Franklin D. Roosevelt

stangzilla

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2020, 09:08:45 AM »
quarantine theory is slow down the patients in the hospital so they are not overwhelmed

but I don't see any enforcement of quarantining, or very little
if people know they can get away with it, they will ignore the quarantine.  i'm sure almost everyone that needs to be, does not obey the 14 day quarantine

ren

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2020, 09:31:22 AM »
The curve is almost a pancake now.  No overwhelming of hospitals and healthcare services.  That's the ONLY reason for the flattening: to avoid having more sick at once than we can care for.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/hawaii
Deeds Not Words

drck1000

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2020, 09:35:22 AM »
   As for quarantining, it's a joke here.
Really tired of hearing "it's the tourist's"
I've seen nothing but groups of 15-100 locals at the beach, parks and homes.
No face masks, plenty of hugs and aloha.
 :shaka:

  And when I checked Monday, HI had 240 flu deaths.
Flu we have a vaccine for !
 :wacko:
Had this discussion about tourists or returning residents the other day with some friends.  That those returning from trips are just as bad risk if not worse.  Because returning residents will likely have more contacts with residents as well as not as aware of higher risks of exposure.  Since Memorial day, seems like folks are back to usual summer activities.  Large beach camping groups, gatherings, etc.  I mean I'm no where near going all Karen and reporting and stuff, but I do notice. 

quarantine theory is slow down the patients in the hospital so they are not overwhelmed

but I don't see any enforcement of quarantining, or very little
if people know they can get away with it, they will ignore the quarantine.  i'm sure almost everyone that needs to be, does not obey the 14 day quarantine
I agree with you there.  No proof or evidence to support my believe, just my opinion.  Then there are those being overly safe on the other end of the spectrum.  Initially, I thought or hoped that that balance would overall bring infection numbers, percentages, etc down, which it seemed to do so back in Mar-Apr timeframe. 

I was pretty cautious and generally stayed home back in Mar-Apr.  I would go for walks in the neighborhood just to get outside and get some fresh air.  I found it funny that there were people who gave me a wide berth when I was coming the other way.  Sheesh, I take a bath daily. . .

 :rofl:

Inspector

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2020, 11:37:06 AM »
Poll Shows ‘Sobering’ Decline In Americans’ Trust In News Media…Before COVID & Floyd Death

https://thegreggjarrett.com/poll-shows-sobering-decline-in-americans-trust-in-news-media-before-covid-floyd-death/
SCIENCE THAT CAN’T BE QUESTIONED IS PROPAGANDA!!!

hvybarrels

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2020, 11:38:30 AM »
The curve has been flattened, and as a response the goalposts have been moved.

The only reason to continue the quarantine is to make sure the hospitals do not get overloaded with severe cases and to protect the elderly and those with pre existing conditions.
“Wars happen when the government tells you who the enemy is. Revolutions happen when you figure it out for yourselves.”

mrgaf

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2020, 03:56:54 PM »
The curve has been flattened, and as a response the goalposts have been moved.

The only reason to continue the quarantine is to make sure the hospitals do not get overloaded with severe cases and to protect the elderly and those with pre existing conditions.

And make babies!  :geekdanc:
To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead.  Thomas Paine.

No man can get rich in politics unless he is a crook.  It cannot be done. Harry Truman

Only good liberal is one taking a dirt nap.

tillamook

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #12 on: August 05, 2020, 04:13:08 PM »
My local Big island hospital has 35 beds.  We currently send most critical patients to Honolulu.  Heart attacks, strokes, certain types of surgery. etc.   Most of our high level of care is done in Honolulu. 

Queens has a 5 level disaster plan which is for something like Covid.  If they reach level 4 they will not take any transfers from the Big Island (or anywhere else).  So if Honolulu covid starts to overwhelm capacity then Big Island patients will not be transfers and we dont have the level or care to manage them with these serious conditions. 

We are a much different state than New York.  We cant simply put people in ambulances and drive them to the next biggest hospital somewhere else in the state or the next state over.   We do have plans to open a mobile military hospital in Kona but they wont have a cath lab or other high level services that Honolulu has.   I suppose they could drive the hospital ship over here.   

So we prefer to not have covid overwhelm Honolulu hospitals because you cant ship us a few cath labs with a team of cardiologists here on the Big Island to deal with all the problems that get sent to honolulu.   You also cant lifeflight a heart attack to the mainland because after 6 hours the damage is already done.   

Funny, we could have been New Zealand with no cases in the spring time if we actually has a capable government and people staying put for 2 weeks.  But we all know they were busy passing gun commission bills instead and beach parties are definitely cool

ren

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #13 on: August 05, 2020, 07:13:36 PM »
Aren't empty beds an opportunity cost for hospitals?
Deeds Not Words

Flapp_Jackson

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #14 on: August 05, 2020, 07:34:44 PM »
Aren't empty beds an opportunity cost for hospitals?


Quote
This article investigates the cost incurred when hospitals have different levels of beds to treat a given number of patients.

The cost of hospital care is affected by both the forecasted level of admissions and the actual number of admissions. When
the relationship between forecasted and actual admissions is held constant, it is found that an empty hospital bed at a typical
hospital in Michigan has a relatively low cost, about 13 percent or less of the cost of an occupied bed. However, empty beds
in large hospitals do add significantly to cost.

If hospital beds are closed, whether by closing beds at hospitals which remain
in business or by closing entire hospitals, cost savings are estimated to be small.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1068961/
"How can you diagnose someone with an obsessive-compulsive disorder
and then act as though I had some choice about barging in?"
-- Melvin Udall

TastesLikeMetal

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #15 on: August 05, 2020, 09:01:21 PM »
No overwhelming of hospitals and healthcare services.

Maybe someone here who works for Queens can vet this but by coworkers mom who works there heard that 50 Micronesian's were admitted over the past 3 days from the same family/friend network.   She also said they're afraid of running out of facilities for much more if this trend keeps going.

eyeeatingfish

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #16 on: August 05, 2020, 09:07:26 PM »
Apparently you aren't.

The curve is almost a pancake now.  No overwhelming of hospitals and healthcare services.  That's the ONLY reason for the flattening: to avoid having more sick at once than we can care for.

New York had the largest infected population and highest infection rate.  We provided so many ventilators, beds and facilities (temporary hospital and a giant medical ship), but neither the extra hospital or ship was used.

So, if there's no curve, nothing needs flattening.  What's the criteria again for stopping these restrictions -- now that your first try was wrong?

Try again.

https://www.newsweek.com/new-york-governor-andrew-cuomo-praises-donald-trump-responding-very-quickly-coronavirus-outbreak-1492570

IIRC the infection numbers for the past week have been setting new records so not sure how the curve is a pancake.

Flapp_Jackson

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #17 on: August 05, 2020, 10:01:58 PM »
IIRC the infection numbers for the past week have been setting new records so not sure how the curve is a pancake.

You have to look at the rate of hospitalizations, not just the raw number of positive test results.   More positive patients does NOT necessarily equate to the number of hospitalizations.  You're picking a higher number of "CASES", but ignoring how many of that number were hospitalized.

We are testing more and more people every day.  That by its very nature will find more people with the disease that otherwise may not have been identified without testing.

Don't just look at a graph over time, and don't be lured into the false premise that deaths are all that matters.  The proportion of positive patients being hospitalized vs those who are not is also important.  Deaths will always go up over time, as the number of deaths is cumulative.  I've not heard of any of the dead coming back to life -- at least not recently.  Look for week-by-week or month by month death numbers if you're interested.  Compare last week with the AVERAGE of the previous 4 weeks to see if there's a trend.  I bet it's flat.

If the number of cases is rising, but the number being hospitalized and dying is staying level or going down, it's likely due to younger people plus those without preexisting health issues being tested.
Stats are funny animals.  Presentation is everything.

In a nutshell, if hospitalization rates are FLAT, that's the curve that matters.  The number of positive test results is mostly irrelevant in the context of flattening the curve.
"How can you diagnose someone with an obsessive-compulsive disorder
and then act as though I had some choice about barging in?"
-- Melvin Udall

Kuleana

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #18 on: August 05, 2020, 10:04:09 PM »
Presentation is everything.

Corrected it for you.

Prevention is everything.

Flapp_Jackson

Re: so why quarantine?
« Reply #19 on: August 05, 2020, 10:10:07 PM »
Corrected it for you.

Prevention is everything.

Shows where your misguided thought process is taking you.

When prevention is (1) unattainable without a vaccine, (2) never going to be 100%, and (3) worse than the disease, then you have to rethink your analysis.

The bad economy is already increasing the death toll as a side-effect of "prevention".  People are afraid to seek medical help out of fear they will be preventing someone with COVID-19 from getting help, or because they are terrified of getting the virus -- so they stay home.

Mental health is also declining.  Suicides are up.  Crime, including violent crime, is up.  People who can't pay their bills, rent, mortgage, car payments are under stress.  Stress kills.

Things are not as simple as you seem to want to believe.
"How can you diagnose someone with an obsessive-compulsive disorder
and then act as though I had some choice about barging in?"
-- Melvin Udall