Good for you. Hopefully you have a plan for when it starts evaporating. They don't print money for Joe six-packs. Only huge banks get bail outs.

There's no guarantees in life.  Plan for the worst and hope for the best.

If you know the rules, then learn to play the game.  Once you figure out there's nothing special about you -- that billions of people before you have come and gone just as you are doing now -- you'll be a whole lot less stressed about what other people are doing and focus more on your own situation.  Blaming others, tearing them down verbally and wishing for their demise doesn't help your position in life one bit.

Yes, I have a plan.  I have almost $500K in equity between this house in Hawaii and my rental property in Hampton, VA.  If the bottom falls out, I can finish paying off the house in VA and have a place to stay.  I only owe $60K on it.  If I make the scheduled payments, it'll be paid off in 8 years, whether it's rented or I'm living there.

Yeah, I think I have things covered.  I'm a long range planner. 

I was not addressing the reasons for your stance on the market, as it makes total sense.  I was referring to the part where you consciously made the effort to state to the group-thinkers in this thread that your following post is not in any agreement with the similar points of view of Hvybarrels and myself.  Did you feel compelled to qualify your post to them before sharing your views?

I stated that I am not defending the group thinkers because I didn't want my statements to be felt that I was taking either side. Not just their side or the popular side. That is what I meant by that comment. If we are going to speak about the economy, we should speak about the good and the bad. Not just one side or the other.

BTW, as I write this the DJI average is up almost 1%.

You missed his point. We aren't the group thinkers, you guys are with a healthy dose of normalcy bias. The fact that you had to apologise before making a statement outside the realm of what passes for political correctness on this site is very telling.

The market is bonkers and only makes sense if you look at it as an inflationary bubble. It might bounce around and zip higher before crashing again, but when they tell you not to panic it's usually a ploy to get everyone else to hold on while the big players run for the fire exit.

I don't invest in the stock market for the same reason I don't bet on sports. It's all rigged.

That was not an apology. See my comments to Kulueana above.

When you say "crashing again", which crash are you referring to? I don't look at the market as an inflationary bubble unless I feel the market is over bought. And currently some stocks are and some stocks are not. But even when the market is over sold there are stocks like that. I don't have the conspiracy theory mentality that you do. I don't believe that anyone is not saying not to panic. Every expert I listen to says exactly what I said. It is too early to tell if this is just a dip, or is going to be a correction or is going to be a crash. That is why I asked if you guys were being a bit premature.

BTW, I don't disagree with your analogy about the big players moving their money from stocks to bonds. Or pulling out altogether. The difference between you and I is that I believe everyone has the same opportunities as the big players. We can pull out and/or move money to bonds anytime we want to. And I stated this before and will state it again. All brokers have a tool that allows you to sell your stock automatically when it hits your predetermined price. It is called a stop loss order, good until executed. It means you don't have to predict the highs and lows in the market. And it will minimize or eliminate loss of equity. No one has to hold on to watch their stocks lose value. Even 401K's have safe havens in their mix. Only the naive hold on during a crash.

I ran out of time this morning so I am just going to add this bit:
In my opinion, everything you say about the big players moving the markets in any direction may be true to some extent. But to think they all get together is a board room somewhere and decide what to do, how to do it and when to do it seems a little too much on the paranoia side to me. Every little guy in the market has the same power and ability to get in and out of the market at will. It just depends on whether the little guys understand how and when to do this. Everyone who hung on to their holdings during the last market downturn have generally come all the way back and are way ahead. Again, generally speaking. And everyone who sold at a loss, lost. Everyone who sold before they were at a loss locked in their gains. Everyone who plays the market has that ability. Maybe just not the mentality. In which case they shouldn't be in the market. But that is another discussion. Let's face it, the market has never moved so fast that no one has not had a chance to get out with either minimal loss or no loss at all. The biggest loss yesterday was what, 5%-6%? The people who locked in their profits around 6% sold automatically and kept from losing their profits using the stop loss order. The people who just recently got in and locked in their profits below 6% lost 6% if the stop loss was placed at this point. Not a 50% loss. Those who locked in their profits above 6% and sold automatically made a profit. And those who hung on may make up for the one day loss or may may continue to ride the market down a bit. Whatever the case and however those people decide to invest is doing so at their own level of comfort. I have no feelings for those who held on during the last crash and then whined and complained about how much they lost. They didn't have to do that. By law, every 401K and IRA and stock market account has to have a safe harbor. If an investor chooses not to use it, that is no ones fault but their own. JMHO

The market has been quite volatile all day so far. Right now it is up about 3/4 of a point. But it has been down by quite a bit earlier and numerous times. What does it mean? Who knows until the dust settles... TBC

stop listening to Linkin Park and The Cure. Grow out of the emo phase and into reality. The world won't end tomorrow.

Good for you. Hopefully you have a plan for when it starts evaporating. They don't print money for Joe six-packs. Only huge banks get bail outs.

There is a very simple and easy plan. Every 401K has to have a safe harbor such as a money market fund. All he has to do is move all his money into the safe harbor until he feels comfortable to jump back in. Or never jump back in again. It is a very simple and easy process. I am not saying that is his plan, but I can say it is an option he has. Everyone with a 401K has that option by law. If the market starts to drop another 5%-6% he can stop his losses (and maybe earn some profits) by moving his money to the safe harbor. Or if he has time before retirement he may elect to ride it down and then back up like he did last time. It is his choice. No one needs to get a buy out. Investing in the market can be a simple process if you take the time to understand all the tools you have at your disposal.

But if it gets to the same point in 2008 where the largest institutions are collapsing, only this time the qe cannon fizzles out then there is no harbor.

Everyone you know must be an idiot.  The vast majority of people in the market are not day traders who sit in front of a computer making trades every time the Fed farts.

People with money in IRAs  and 401Ks let their money sit often for decades without the "gambling" bug driving them.  They are regular people putting a little something away until they retire.

My 401K hit over $500K after it was stagnant under Obama for 8 years.  I rode the drop in 2007 and then the ride up to even after 4 years.  I think I made enough to pay brokerage fees the next 4 years.  Once Trump was elected, my retirement account has been on an upward tear.

But, that's just me.  You probably know why I could have made $2 million by now.....

If you only made enough to cover fees over that time frame, you seriously need a new financial advisor. From 2012 to 2016 the S&P was up about 80%. Even if you start in 2013, you're looking at about a 59% increase. Actually forget whoever you're using, an index fund has nearly no fees and you would have been way ahead.

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If you only made enough to cover fees over that time frame, you seriously need a new financial advisor. From 2012 to 2016 the S&P was up about 80%. Even if you start in 2013, you're looking at about a 59% increase. Actually forget whoever you're using, an index fund has nearly no fees and you would have been way ahead.

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You really don't know what  you're talking about.

You really don't know what  you're talking about.

Are you saying I'm lying? It's a pretty easily verifiable fact.



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Are you saying I'm lying? It's a pretty easily verifiable fact.



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Look at that data and get back to me.

The market plunged from 2007 - 2009 from over 14K to about 6,5K.  It took until 2013 for it to reach 14K again.  That's the break even point.  From 2013 to 2016, it gained to 18K, which is a 22% increase after ZERO increase over SIX YEARS.  If I had the funds to invest more, sure, I would have made money, but I didn't.  You put 2 girls trough college on your own dime at that time, and see how much cash you have to gamble on an economy that was taking forever to recover.

I know math is hard.  Go look it up.

If you spread that monster 22% gain out over 8 years (Obama-geddon), you get a whopping 2.75% annual increase.  Or, as I said, barely covered my fees.

Woo hoo!  Obama's market was so fantastic!  How could I not see that?

But if it gets to the same point in 2008 where the largest institutions are collapsing, only this time the qe cannon fizzles out then there is no harbor.

Safe harbors are traditionally FDIC insured. That is why they are called safe harbors. The only way you won't be able to get your money if a few banks collapse is if the Federal Government collapses. In which case getting/having money in the bank is going to be the least of your worries.

The QE Cannon (as you put it) is one of the worst things the Fed could have done to us citizens. I was all in favor of letting GM and the banks collapse instead of trying to keep them afloat. If we had let them collapse I doubt we would have needed to shoot off the QE Cannon. JMHO

BTW, the Dow closed up 2.33% or $567.03 today. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Safe harbors are traditionally FDIC insured. That is why they are called safe harbors. The only way you won't be able to get your money if a few banks collapse is if the Federal Government collapses. In which case getting/having money in the bank is going to be the least of your worries.

The QE Cannon (as you put it) is one of the worst things the Fed could have done to us citizens. I was all in favor of letting GM and the banks collapse instead of trying to keep them afloat. If we had let them collapse I doubt we would have needed to shoot off the QE Cannon. JMHO

The problem with the safe harbors is:

1. on some plans, investment options can be retired.  If you sell those shares, you can't buy back in.
2. Some investments have a "cooling" period where if you sell, you have to wait up to a month to buy into it again.
3. Transactions can take 3 days to settle.  In a short dip/recovery, it could take you 6 days to buy back into stocks/indices, but the market already recovered  to the point above where you sold.  You might miss the recovery and now have to see increases above your selling point to be whole again.

When you lose 20% of a stock's value, the price has to then increase more than that for you to break even.  If it was 100 and dropped to 80, that's 20% down.  To go from 80 to 100, you money has to earn 31% on the remaining 80.  Not as easy going up as going down, because you have less money invested when it bottoms.

If you lose 50% of your portfolio's value, your remaining investments then have to earn 100% to get back to even.

Timing is everything.

The problem with the safe harbors is:

1. on some plans, investment options can be retired.  If you sell those shares, you can't buy back in.
2. Some investments have a "cooling" period where if you sell, you have to wait up to a month to buy into it again.
3. Transactions can take 3 days to settle.  In a short dip/recovery, it could take you 6 days to buy back into stocks/indices, but the market already recovered  to the point above where you sold.  You might miss the recovery and now have to see increases above your selling point to be whole again.

When you lose 20% of a stock's value, the price has to then increase 31% for you to break even.  If it was 100 and dropped to 80, that's 20% down.  To go from 80 to 100, you money has to earn 31% on the remaining 80.  Not as easy going up as going down, because you have less money invested when it bottoms.

All this is true. This is why people shouldn't panic when there is a dip and/or some volatility in the market. But you still have options. Rolling over part of your 401K into your own self directed IRA is a great way to diffuse most of those issues. For instance, mutual funds are the investments you mentioned. Why not roll over into your own IRA and invest in a comparable ETF? This is especially popular if you don't get a match in your 401K like myself. So I direct funds into my IRA and Roth IRA every year. Most 401K plans' mutual funds allow you to make one sell and one buy in a months time. You don't want to try and buy/sell in your 401K in short periods like you would buying stocks in your IRA.

If you are truly that active in your 401K you would do better to roll over a good amount into your IRA and buy/sell in there.

Look at that data and get back to me.

The market plunged from 2007 - 2009 from over 14K to about 6,5K.  It took until 2013 for it to reach 14K again.  That's the break even point.  From 2013 to 2016, it gained to 18K, which is a 22% increase after ZERO increase over SIX YEARS.  If I had the funds to invest more, sure, I would have made money, but I didn't.  You put 2 girls trough college on your own dime at that time, and see how much cash you have to gamble on an economy that was taking forever to recover.

I know math is hard.  Go look it up.

If you spread that monster 22% gain out over 8 years (Obama-geddon), you get a whopping 2.75% annual increase.  Or, as I said, barely covered my fees.

Woo hoo!  Obama's market was so fantastic!  How could I not see that?

YOU said it took you four years to get back to even. That's 2013. I already told you how the S&P performed AFTER that time period. Even if you didn't put in any additional money, the S&P returned 59% from the four year span of 2013 to 2016. Look it up.

If you were even in 2013 how the hell did you not make money? The only way is you pulled out of the market, which is not anyone else's fault.

And who pays 2.75% in fees? Again, use index funds they outperform actively managed funds anyway.

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All this is true. This is why people shouldn't panic when there is a dip and/or some volatility in the market. But you still have options. Rolling over part of your 401K into your own self directed IRA is a great way to diffuse most of those issues. For instance, mutual funds are the investments you mentioned. Why not roll over into your own IRA and invest in a comparable ETF? This is especially popular if you don't get a match in your 401K like myself. So I direct funds into my IRA and Roth IRA every year. Most 401K plans' mutual funds allow you to make one sell and one buy in a months time. You don't want to try and buy/sell in your 401K in short periods like you would buying stocks in your IRA.

If you are truly that active in your 401K you would do better to roll over a good amount into your IRA and buy/sell in there.

If you're in a 401K, you can't do a distribution to roll-over into another fund/plan unless you are in a position to avoid the 10% penalty -- assuming you want to avoid that.

If you leave your employer, are old enough, go through a divorce, or any of the other Qualified Distribution categories, then you can choose where that money goes.  Also, unless you are exceeding your annual limit for tax deferred retirement savings, you have to contribute to your work 401K to get the tax deferral on that income.  You should do that anyway, since employers match your savings, which is basically free money for saving for retirement.

YOU said it took you four years to get back to even. That's 2013. I already told you how the S&P performed AFTER that time period. Even if you didn't put in any additional money, the S&P returned 59% from the four year span of 2013 to 2016. Look it up.

If you were even in 2013 how the hell did you not make money? The only way is you pulled out of the market, which is not anyone else's fault.

And who pays 2.75% in fees? Again, use index funds they outperform actively managed funds anyway.

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Have you ever had a job?  You can't pick and choose which plan your money is in.  Your contributions stay in that plan until you have a qualified distribution event.  Otherwise you get his with a 10% penalty AND have to pay the gov't any deferred taxes on that money.

I could send you my statements for how crappy the index funds performed, but then you'd just find another armchair quarterback / Monday-morning quarterback / tell-everybody-else-what-to-do reason why I was wrong.

 

If you're in a 401K, you can't do a distribution to roll-over into another fund/plan unless you are in a position to avoid the 10% penalty -- assuming you want to avoid that.

If you leave your employer, are old enough, go through a divorce, or any of the other Qualified Distribution categories, then you can choose where that money goes.  Also, unless you are exceeding your annual limit for tax deferred retirement savings, you have to contribute to your work 401K to get the tax deferral on that income.  You should do that anyway, since employers match your savings, which is basically free money for saving for retirement.

Sorry, I didn't realize you are not 55 yet. Most 401K plans will allow you to rollover to a qualified IRA without penalty if you are 55 and older.