2aHawaii
General Topics => Preparedness and Survival => Topic started by: hvybarrels on December 29, 2011, 09:25:05 PM
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So according to this article in huffypost (yeah I know liberal rag but it's survival oriented) the USA has no plans for severe oil shortage, such as the one that would be caused if the Iranians shut off the Strait of Hormuz as they are threatening to do right now. To make things even more interesting both Russia and China have made it clear of the the past few weeks that if we mess with Iran, we mess with them. Not a good situation to begin with, but the total lack of preparation on the part of our government would make the scenes here in the us catastrophic. According to the article of course. Who knows maybe it's all just fine and dandy.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/edwin-black/usa-has-no-plan-oil-interruption_b_1173702.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/edwin-black/usa-has-no-plan-oil-interruption_b_1173702.html)
The crude realities: America uses approximately 19 to 20 million barrels of oil per day, almost 70 percent of which is imported. If we lose just 1 million barrels per day, or suffer the type of damage sustained from Hurricane Katrina, the government will open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which offers a mere 6 to 8 week supply of unrefined crude oil. If we lose 1.5 million barrels per day, or approximately 7.5 percent, we will ask our allies in the 28-member International Energy Agency to open their SPRs and otherwise assist. If we lose 2 million barrels per day, or ten percent for a protracted period of time, government crisis monitors say the chaos will be so catastrophic they cannot even model it. One government oil crisis source told me hours ago, "We cannot put a price tag on it. If it happens, just cash in your 401k."
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I wish Iran good luck on that one... Their Navy is completely craptastic, I've seen their rust buckets first hand.
Straits of Hormuz is international water. It doesn't belong to Iran. We aren't the only nation that uses the straits.
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Agreed voodu... before we suffer, you can bet Iran will.
And no one will assist them...just like Iraq, and Afghanistan.
China still needs us to pile in our SUVs and buy their crap from, well, anywhere and everywhere.
I don't know what Russia needs, maybe a drink. They got their own problems, and it doesn't include us.
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Ditto the last two responses. They are incapable of blockading the strait. The best they could do would be trying to mine it, out maybe harass shipping with their submarines. Neither of those ideas would get off the ground with the US Fifth on hot standby to push their s*** in. They're so pathetic that they have a "class" of warship that is literally two dudes on a black jet ski. Front guy drives, back guy mans the RPG. Real first-class hardware, I tell you what. :thumbsup:
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Not sure if you guys have seen it before but one of the best whistleblower on this subject is Lindsey Williams. You can find his 3-hour dvd video on middle east oil (and other interviews) and about preparing on YouTube. What he says is interesting if you've never watched it before.
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You do know they have been running ops. Here on the base for awhile for something just like this. Apparently, the channel between Kauai and Niihau is very similar to the strait. The navy has been doing ops. There for awhile to prepare for something like this.
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Interesting. It is a valuable card for Iran to threaten playing, but it would be a world of trouble for them to actually play it.
It would be easy for them to block the international shipping lanes, true. Until everyone came down on them for doing so. Wouldn't take NATO more than 2 heartbeats to sanction that action even if the UN action is blocked by China and Russia. Which it wouldn't be since clearing Iran's Navy from international space wouldn't be a direct attack on Iran. And we already have Navy presence there to prevent just such a thing.
Risking open conflict over US interests, indeed shared worldwide interest, is a foolish thing for them to try. It would probably cost them the support of China, as well, since some of that oil goes to China and cratering the world economy is sure to hit China quite hard.
If they do try to pull that stunt the trick will be refusing to widen the conflict to include targets and objectives that will make China and Russia upset.
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My understanding is that the world gets 35%-40% coming through the strait. Not sure how much of that is heading to the US? But again my understanding is that a small percentage of our imports does come though the strait. It would be easy for Iran to to sink a tanker in the strait and I understand we already know how to clear that in a week or less. I believe this whole thing is saber rattling in order to raise oil prices. Iran itself cannot benefit from raising its own prices but it is not in great financial shape due to our sanctions. We threaten to sanction their main banking system and they threaten the oil supply and benefit from rising prices. They will certainly benefit if they block the strait even for a week.
My opinion is we need to shut them up and scare the piss out of them. I'll let you figure out the best way to do that. Maybe the same way we did to Libya in the 80's and Iraq in the 90's?
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So I got a way to shut them up. I mean the environmentalist might like it but it's the best solution............ Wait, wait, here it comes...... START DRILLING AND BIULD THE FRIKIN KEYSTONE PIPELINE HERE, and this is the best one yet...... KEEP OUR MONEY HERE IN AMERICA. You want to se how fast those fuckers would shut up. Cause not only would Iran be fùcked (money wise), the oil cartel OPEC would come down on them like a ton of bricks because they would also be fùcked. But that's just crazy talk and wishful thinking. Right? I mean now why did America buy Alaska from the Russians? Oh yeah, for it's natural resources.... Damn ECO natzis! (alot of sarcasm on the last part)
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I don't see Iran seriously trying to take military action to close the Straights. Countries are just looking for a way to get into the country and assure that Iran does not have/maintain the capability to refine nuclear materials.
With what happened to Iraq and Afghanistan it means there will be guys on the ground in Iran and I don't believe China/Russia will risk WWIII in this case either.
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My understanding is that the world gets 35%-40% coming through the strait. Not sure how much of that is heading to the US? But again my understanding is that a small percentage of our imports does come though the strait. It would be easy for Iran to to sink a tanker in the strait and I understand we already know how to clear that in a week or less. I believe this whole thing is saber rattling in order to raise oil prices. Iran itself cannot benefit from raising its own prices but it is not in great financial shape due to our sanctions. We threaten to sanction their main banking system and they threaten the oil supply and benefit from rising prices. They will certainly benefit if they block the strait even for a week.
My opinion is we need to shut them up and scare the piss out of them. I'll let you figure out the best way to do that. Maybe the same way we did to Libya in the 80's and Iraq in the 90's?
One could sink a super tanker (or two) and not block the straits. This isn't a river or a canal. I think the skinniest stretch is around 34nm. Oil isn't the only thing moving there. Lots of supplies come in that way.
I agree with the pipeline comment. The whole thing is political.
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The environmental risks of the pipeline are quite real, make no mistake. However, the huge necessity of oil to lubricate every aspect of our economy and security is also quite real. Scary real. :shrug:
Given that oil prices are only going to keep going up and we aren't moving away from our dependence on it in any meaningful way that pipeline is going to get built eventually. When gas is $15 a gallon and food is 4 times as expensive due to shipping costs even some of the environmentalists well be calling for the pipeline. Of course, even such a pipeline won't prevent $15 gas, just delay it for a time.
Oil is a dead end road (fact) but we're still on it for the foreseeable future (also fact.). Can you imagine how much world military and political concerns will shift when we move on to some other energy source? Conflict over oil is going to get worse, probably much worse, before we figure out how to exist at viable energy consumption levels without it. But those who profit from oil are going to get fat, fat, fat off the huge profit margins as demand goes up and supply starts to taper off. Since energy (i.e. oil) is the most important single factor to modern society - thus a powerful lobbying force - I don't expect alternative energies to get much infrastructural support until the current energy suppliers are ready to control that, too. Having purchased and shelved most viable alternative energy systems already, the oil companies are poised to become energy companies - after they have squeezed every last drop of profitability out of existing oil supplies. All other consequences and considerations be damned.
It is amusing and sad that Iran, with its jet skill navy, actually poses a very real threat to American economic and security interests. We may have a huge and capable military but it depends on the oil pipe staying open. I'm sure the military has a contingency plan for oil shortages even if the civilian US doesn't - but it might not be pretty. John Q. Public will be walking to work before the military goes hungry for fuel.
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Id love to read a headline to the tune of "US Navy sinks 30 Iranian bassboats"...
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Id love to read a headline to the tune of "US Navy sinks 30 Iranian bassboats"...
Our press? It would more than likely read "US Navy keeping Iran from feeding itself, citizens starving to death! in exchange for oil" LOL!!! Our press feels the need to lie in order to sell advertisement.
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US:
US rescues Iranian boat from pirates:
http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/breaking/US_Navy_rescues_Iranian_fishing_boat_from_pirates_.html?id=136835988 (http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/breaking/US_Navy_rescues_Iranian_fishing_boat_from_pirates_.html?id=136835988)
Iran:
US Illegally boards ships and brings pirates. :crazy:
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Iran:
US Illegally boards ships and brings pirates. :crazy:
Now that IS funny!
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...... START DRILLING AND BIULD THE FRIKIN KEYSTONE PIPELINE HERE, and this is the best one yet...... KEEP OUR MONEY HERE IN AMERICA.
Just heard on the radio last night that there already IS a pipeline carrying shale oil to refineries in the midwest. Apparently the keystone pipeline is to get the oil down to the gulf where it can then be refined and exported. Reasoning: oil demand in the US is flagging so to keep domestic supply down (and thus domestic prices high) we are exporting more refined petroleum fuels than ever before. Refined fueled products is now the #1 U.S. export, according to the program. We are the #1 importer of oil internationally and now refined oil is our #1 export, too. I'm not sure that makes sense. If that's true, then its not at all about keeping our money in America - or at least not our fuel.
In my quick searches between work today I haven't been able to turn up many reasonably unbiased (i.e. non-political) reports - which always bothers me. Hard to do, anyway, when something gets so heavily politicized. :grrr: But such as I did find (first link ~seems~ like a decent unbiased summary):
http://www.stillwaterassociates.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=140:keystone-xl-canadian-crude-and-the-long-trip-south&catid=40:white-papers&Itemid=155 (http://www.stillwaterassociates.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=140:keystone-xl-canadian-crude-and-the-long-trip-south&catid=40:white-papers&Itemid=155)
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/story/2011-12-31/united-states-export/52298812/1 (http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/story/2011-12-31/united-states-export/52298812/1)
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/story/2011-12-16/us-oil-boom/52053236/1 (http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/story/2011-12-16/us-oil-boom/52053236/1)
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/energy-problem-u-oil-exports-rise-174452881.html (http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/energy-problem-u-oil-exports-rise-174452881.html)
And a discussion of it somewhere out on the interwebs...
http://www.selectsmart.com/DISCUSS/read.php?16,874547 (http://www.selectsmart.com/DISCUSS/read.php?16,874547)
The only thing that I can think of that makes sense of it is that the fuel going to our military in Afghanistan and, until recently, Iraq is being included in the export figures. If it were about easing pressure on domestic supply and prices then the refineries in the midwest would suffice. The Canadian fields are incapable of filling the pipeline that already exists so its not about getting more oil into the the US, just getting it to a different place. And since some oil is already shipped around from where the pipeline stops, its really just about getting it to a different place in a different way.
Can't help but suspect that its more D.C. infighting were Senators from the Gulf State refineries are trying to steal the bacon from the Midwestern States so they can bring it home to their voters.
edit: Apologies if this is old news, which it easily could be. I haven't paid much attention to the issue figuring it was the usual political bullshit. Hearing that the pipeline wasn't about getting more oil to the US ~for~ the US shifted it from political BS to corporate BS. If it isn't about increased energy security or bringing prices down in the US... why do it?
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...... START DRILLING AND BIULD THE FRIKIN KEYSTONE PIPELINE HERE, and this is the best one yet...... KEEP OUR MONEY HERE IN AMERICA.
Just heard on the radio last night that there already IS a pipeline carrying shale oil to refineries in the midwest. Apparently the keystone pipeline is to get the oil down to the gulf where it can then be refined and exported. Reasoning: oil demand in the US is flagging so to keep domestic supply down (and thus domestic prices high) we are exporting more refined petroleum fuels than ever before. Refined fueled products is now the #1 U.S. export, according to the program. We are the #1 importer of oil internationally and now refined oil is our #1 export, too. I'm not sure that makes sense. If that's true, then its not at all about keeping our money in America - or at least not our fuel.
In my quick searches between work today I haven't been able to turn up many reasonably unbiased (i.e. non-political) reports - which always bothers me. Hard to do, anyway, when something gets so heavily politicized. :grrr: But such as I did find (first link ~seems~ like a decent unbiased summary):
http://www.stillwaterassociates.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=140:keystone-xl-canadian-crude-and-the-long-trip-south&catid=40:white-papers&Itemid=155 (http://www.stillwaterassociates.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=140:keystone-xl-canadian-crude-and-the-long-trip-south&catid=40:white-papers&Itemid=155)
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/story/2011-12-31/united-states-export/52298812/1 (http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/story/2011-12-31/united-states-export/52298812/1)
http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/story/2011-12-16/us-oil-boom/52053236/1 (http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/story/2011-12-16/us-oil-boom/52053236/1)
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/energy-problem-u-oil-exports-rise-174452881.html (http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/energy-problem-u-oil-exports-rise-174452881.html)
And a discussion of it somewhere out on the interwebs...
http://www.selectsmart.com/DISCUSS/read.php?16,874547 (http://www.selectsmart.com/DISCUSS/read.php?16,874547)
The only thing that I can think of that makes sense of it is that the fuel going to our military in Afghanistan and, until recently, Iraq is being included in the export figures. If it were about easing pressure on domestic supply and prices then the refineries in the midwest would suffice. The Canadian fields are incapable of filling the pipeline that already exists so its not about getting more oil into the the US, just getting it to a different place. And since some oil is already shipped around from where the pipeline stops, its really just about getting it to a different place in a different way.
Can't help but suspect that its more D.C. infighting were Senators from the Gulf State refineries are trying to steal the bacon from the Midwestern States so they can bring it home to their voters.
edit: Apologies if this is old news, which it easily could be. I haven't paid much attention to the issue figuring it was the usual political bullshit. Hearing that the pipeline wasn't about getting more oil to the US ~for~ the US shifted it from political BS to corporate BS. If it isn't about increased energy security or bringing prices down in the US... why do it?
ouch that was long. Lol :) J/K
The pipeline would produce a lot of jobs to biuld it, and then to maintain it. Yes the ECO disaster is probable, but I ask this question. How much times did the Alaska pipeline break? I don't think it ever did.
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Long? Yeah, sorry. :oops: I type fast and probably think too much... :crazy:
Leaks are common, though, according to all 4 people I know who live in Alaska. And some leaks in the more remote areas aren't really gotten to in any hurry unless they are severe. I haven't heard of any catastrophic failures, though. Just part of doing business in oil is how they see it.
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Iran:
US Illegally boards ships and brings pirates. :crazy:
Now that IS funny!
Iran hasn't officially replied yet. We'll see how they address this issue. :rofl:
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Long? Yeah, sorry. :oops: I type fast and probably think too much... :crazy:
Leaks are common, though, according to all 4 people I know who live in Alaska. And some leaks in the more remote areas aren't really gotten to in any hurry unless they are severe. I haven't heard of any catastrophic failures, though. Just part of doing business in oil is how they see it.
the way I look at it oil has been seeping out of the ground for years upon years only we figured out how to contain it. Now there saying fraking. Is causing earthquake. But I wouldn't know, I'm not one of them dere geo ologist perstins. :)
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Watch more Fox... ;D
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http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/01/us-military-again-rescues-iranian-mariners-in-distress/1 (http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/01/us-military-again-rescues-iranian-mariners-in-distress/1)
............and in a follow up, the Coasties rescue a bunch of Iranians this week. 8)
For the second time in a week, the U.S. military has come to the rescue of Iranian sailors in the North Arabian Gulf, according to the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command.
This time a U.S. Coast Guard ship helped an Iranian cargo dhow, Ya-Hussayn, with six mariners aboard, that was flooding and deemed unseaworthy.
The Navy says the USCGC Monomoy, a patrol board, responded at 3 a.m. to distress signals -- flares and flashlights -- from the Ya-Hussayn.
The incident occurred about 50 miles southeast of the Iraqi port of Umm Qasr, according to the Pentagon.
A small boat from the Monomoy rescued two people from the Ya-Hussayn itself and four from a life raft tied off its stern.
The Navy quoted Hakim Hamid-Awi, owner of the Ya-Hassayn, as telling the Monomoy crew: "Without your help, we were dead. Thank you for all that you did for us."
The six Iranians were transferred by inflatable boats to an Iranian Coast Guard vessel, the statement says.
Last Thursday, the U.S. Navy rescued 13 Iranian fishermen who had been held captive by pirates in the northern Arabian Sea, just outside the Persian Gulf, for more than 40 days, the Associated Press reports.
That happened just days after Tehran warned the United States to keep its warships out of the Gulf.
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The Iranians are testing our response time :D
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45955042/ns/world_news-south_and_central_asia/#.Tw3FYYGYuSo (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45955042/ns/world_news-south_and_central_asia/#.Tw3FYYGYuSo)
Wonder if this is the Israelis.