2aHawaii
General Topics => Political Discussion => Topic started by: zippz on December 02, 2018, 11:32:40 PM
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Do you guys think we'll lose the US Senate and Presidency in the 2020 elections and what will it mean for gun control? In 2020 the Republicans are defending 22 seats to the Democrats 12 and Trump will face a tough election depending on who runs against him. He'd most likely lose to moderates like Biden who is liked by many. This in turn could also result in a change to the supreme courts makeup just about when Young v Hawaii goes up for a SCOTUS hearing.
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Too early to say. Still have 20 months to go and that's plenty of time for some Black Swan action. In case you noticed the markets are not looking too healthy lately, international diplomacy is abysmal, and our partners are weighing options. I'm pretty sure they won't get around to building that wall either.
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All I know is if Trump isn't re-elected, prepare for a HUGE market crash. So short what ever you got. Then buy again later.
I bet Mueller is holding off on the Russia thing until after the election is over. He probably knew in 2017 that there is no collusion.
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I expect that the Dems will nominate a far left candidate thanks to Pelosi. Trump will squeeze out another close win. After two years of House hearings on Trump's indiscretions, the Reps will lose the Senate. By 2022, we'll have the 46th President. That's my prognostication.
Hopefully, all of this will distract the public from gun control unless more assholes decide to shoot up innocent people. For whatever reason, there appears to be an epidemic of mass shootings. I'm confident that eventually, everyone will calm the eff down. I don't believe that gun control will be effective in eliminating the epidemic, kinda like cutting off the arms off anyone who might potentially get infected. Eventually the disease will run its course and now you have a bunch of people running around with no arms. IMHO, outlawing guns will do little to reduce the rate of mass shootings in the US.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1b/Total_US_deaths_by_year_in_spree_shootings_1982%E2%80%932018_%28ongoing%29.svg/2000px-Total_US_deaths_by_year_in_spree_shootings_1982%E2%80%932018_%28ongoing%29.svg.png)
All I know is if Trump isn't re-elected, prepare for a HUGE market crash. So short what ever you got. Then buy again later.
I bet Mueller is holding off on the Russia thing until after the election is over. He probably knew in 2017 that there is no collusion.
The market crash is inevitable, happens at the beginning of most decades. The outlier is the 2008 housing crisis for which we've been in a gradual recovery since.
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I expect that the Dems will nominate a far left candidate thanks to Pelosi. Trump will squeeze out another close win. After two years of House hearings on Trump's indiscretions, the Reps will lose the Senate. By 2022, we'll have the 46th President. That's my prognostication.
Wait, you predict that Trump will get re-elected in 2020 but two years later we will have a new president? I’m curious what do you predict is going to happen to Trump? Assasination? Heart attack? Turns out Stormy Daniels gave Trump HIV/STD? Will Melania kill him for having an affair with Hill Dog? (EWWW) Crotch rot? What? I’m really curious to hear what you predict.....
Or are you saying that the House will impeach and the senate will remove?
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I don’t like to predict things as I am a terrible guesser.
I will present something I thought was interesting to me. If you’ll recall Ann Coulter predicted Trump would become president. She was laughed at on May 4, 2016 for her prediction. Long before he won the nomination.
https://youtu.be/XbygriZT1Xw
Now Ann Coulter is predicting that Trump will be our last Republican president.
https://www.cnsnews.com/blog/michael-w-chapman/ann-coulter-trump-will-be-last-republican-president
I’m not an Ann Coulter fan but I always felt she has some insight and a different angle and ways that she looks at things.
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Wait, you predict that Trump will get re-elected in 2020 but two years later we will have a new president? I’m curious what do you predict is going to happen to Trump? Assasination? Heart attack? Turns out Stormy Daniels gave Trump HIV/STD? Will Melania kill him for having an affair with Hill Dog? (EWWW) Crotch rot? What? I’m really curious to hear what you predict.....
Or are you saying that the House will impeach and the senate will remove?
:rofl:
This ought to be interesting...
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(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1b/Total_US_deaths_by_year_in_spree_shootings_1982%E2%80%932018_%28ongoing%29.svg/2000px-Total_US_deaths_by_year_in_spree_shootings_1982%E2%80%932018_%28ongoing%29.svg.png)
Source? That graph is nowhere even close to using the FBI definition. More likely Bloombergian dictionary. What is the definition ("mass shooting") used in the chart?
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Do you guys think we'll lose the US Senate and Presidency in the 2020 elections and what will it mean for gun control? In 2020 the Republicans are defending 22 seats to the Democrats 12 and Trump will face a tough election depending on who runs against him. He'd most likely lose to moderates like Biden who is liked by many. This in turn could also result in a change to the supreme courts makeup just about when Young v Hawaii goes up for a SCOTUS hearing.
I think that the GOP needs to put someone else to run instead of Trump otherwise I think we will lose the presidency. Trump lost the popular vote and I think he has lost some of his support since becoming president making it even harder to win in 2020 unless the democrats field a really bad candidate.
I have often said I was disappointed with the GOP and that it needs to be torn down and rebuilt but I think Trump is doing that in the wrong direction. Maybe we will see a better GOP get rebuilt but I suspect that would take a large number of democrat presidents first.
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I think that the GOP needs to put someone else to run instead of Trump otherwise I think we will lose the presidency. Trump lost the popular vote and I think he has lost some of his support since becoming president making it even harder to win in 2020 unless the democrats field a really bad candidate.
I have often said I was disappointed with the GOP and that it needs to be torn down and rebuilt but I think Trump is doing that in the wrong direction. Maybe we will see a better GOP get rebuilt but I suspect that would take a large number of democrat presidents first.
Trump has lost support? On what evidence do you base that conclusion/opinion/myth?
Trump reelection campaign has $100 million head start over Democrats
$106 million - an enormous sum that exceeds what any of his predecessors amassed so early in their presidencies.
More than half of the money the committees raised in the most recent fundraising quarter came from individual supporters, who are
giving in amounts of $200 or less. These supporters also are turning up at Trump-headlined rallies, where their information is being
pulled into the Republican National Committee's expanding voter database.
The party is connecting with 1 million voters per day and forging an army of volunteers - with a test run of this machine underway in
the form of the November midterm election.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/politics/ct-trump-reelection-campaign-money-20181016-story.html
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Wait, you predict that Trump will get re-elected in 2020 but two years later we will have a new president? I’m curious what do you predict is going to happen to Trump? Assasination? Heart attack? Turns out Stormy Daniels gave Trump HIV/STD? Will Melania kill him for having an affair with Hill Dog? (EWWW) Crotch rot? What? I’m really curious to hear what you predict.....
Or are you saying that the House will impeach and the senate will remove?
History doesn't repeat itself but it certainly rhymes with Watergate. Or he could have a heart attack from all of the cheeseburgers he eats before bed...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTt2HgNI_xg
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All of this happened this week.
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All of this happened this week.
Irrelevant. Irrelevant. Irrelevant.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R48KMbOOR-A
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History doesn't repeat itself but it certainly rhymes with Watergate. Or he could have a heart attack from all of the cheeseburgers he eats before bed...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTt2HgNI_xg
You are being so obtuse I don’t understand. I thought you wanted to have a real conversation. I don’t understand why you are acting this way so I give up. :wacko:
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Trump has lost support? On what evidence do you base that conclusion/opinion/myth?
Because of the amount of people who initially supported him and have become turned off by some of his failed promises/rhetoric/increasing evidence of corruption or criminal activity.
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Because of the amount of people who initially supported him and have become turned off by some of his failed promises/rhetoric/increasing evidence of corruption or criminal activity.
That's not evidence. That's your opinion.
Show studies, stats, and reports that back up your opinion, or admit you are making that "factoid" up.
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You are being so obtuse I don’t understand. I thought you wanted to have a real conversation. I don’t understand why you are acting this way so I give up. :wacko:
Trump is screwed whether he wins or loses the Presidency. The Constitution doesn't allow a sitting President to be indicted, but he can afterwards. I doubt a sitting President can pardon himself otherwise Nixon woulda tried it. If Trump losses the election, the Democrat President will not pardon him. His only hope is to wait until the end of his second term and hope the GOP candidate wins. The easy way out is to quit and make a deal with the VP to give a pardon like Ford did. Alternatively, Mueller could finally admit that the Russian investigation is a giant conspiracy involving the Judicial department and half of his transition team. :wacko:
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Trump is screwed whether he wins or loses the Presidency. The Constitution doesn't allow a sitting President to be indicted, but he can afterwards. I doubt a sitting President can pardon himself otherwise Nixon woulda tried it. If Trump losses the election, the Democrat President will not pardon him. His only hope is to wait until the end of his second term and hope the GOP candidate wins. The easy way out is to quit and make a deal with the VP to give a pardon like Ford did. Alternatively, Mueller could finally admit that the Russian investigation is a giant conspiracy involving the Judicial department and half of his transition team. :wacko:
An impeached president can't pardon himself, but his successor can. Ford did exactly that, which quashed all rumblings of charging Nixon criminally after his resignation.
If Trump resigns, do you not think Pence wouldn't do the same? If Trump loses, there would be executive privilege that could be invoked for his time in office, even after leaving office.
I don't see more than a nothing burger anyway. Mueller would have filed his report already if there was anything to go after Trump for.
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Trump gets impeached and Pence takes over.
Pence then assigns Trump as VP
Pence steps down and Trump is no POTUS again
Trump assigns Pence as VP.
Would be a trip if Muellers report takes down the Clintons and others like (actually working for Trump). Whistleblower for the Clintons Foundation got raided a few days ago by the FBI. Is this a start?
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That's not evidence. That's your opinion.
Show studies, stats, and reports that back up your opinion, or admit you are making that "factoid" up.
Some of those things EEF said may not be real, but could be perceived. Either way it gets the same result for the other side.
Democrats exceeded expectations in the house and senate in the last election. It only gets worse moving forward for the 2020 elections. Democrats will stall Congress so Trump will be seen as not getting things done. There will still be controversy even if Trump gets off clean in the Mueller probe. If the US enters a recession without a Trump tarriff win, then he's in big trouble.
Trump will have to execute perfectly to win reelection. Peace with N Korea, winning the trade battle with China and other countries, expanding the economy and manufacturing, getting Russia to back off, etc.
Or the Democrats nominating an idiot like Kamala Harris works too but unlikely.
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MAGA 2
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Trump will have to execute perfectly to win reelection. Peace with N Korea, winning the trade battle with China and other countries, expanding the economy and manufacturing, getting Russia to back off, etc.
Or the Democrats nominating an idiot like Kamala Harris works too but unlikely.
The Dems are already touting idiots like Harris and Swalwell. The successful nominee will probably show his hat at the last moment like B Clinton did in 92. No serious candidate will show their hand this early in the game.
I’m starting to root for old Trump for the same reason people watch NASCAR. :popcorn:
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I'm not claiming a causal connection. Could just be a total coincidence. (Note that the data below is based on 2010 census... and has likely greatly increased since then.) But given the latest election results, Florida and Texas are rapidly approaching Democratic majorities... in which case Ann Coulter's prediction that Trump will be the last Republican president EVER... increases in likelihood (given that the other two highest electoral college delegate states are the deep blue states of New York and California).
http://gunwatch.blogspot.com/2018/12/foreign-born-population-of-united.html
Foreign-Born Population of the United States, Percent by State, as of 2010
(https://i.imgur.com/FRNUyAE.jpg)
The foreign born population of the United States is at near record levels of over 14 percent, as of 2018. The last time this happened, the U.S. shut down immigration for 40 years and assimilated the immigrants.
It is less clear that will happen this time.
The big wave of immigration ending about 1920, was part of how Progressivism took over as the dominant ideology in the United States.
The current wave of immigration, began in 1965, is part of how Progressivism is pushing out the remnants of Constitutional ideology today.
President Donald Trump is part of a desperate attempt to stop the slide to unlimited government in the United States. It will not be successful unless the United States severely limits immigration and starts teaching Constitutionalism and limited government in its schools.
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Some of those things EEF said may not be real, but could be perceived. Either way it gets the same result for the other side.
Democrats exceeded expectations in the house and senate in the last election. It only gets worse moving forward for the 2020 elections. Democrats will stall Congress so Trump will be seen as not getting things done. There will still be controversy even if Trump gets off clean in the Mueller probe. If the US enters a recession without a Trump tarriff win, then he's in big trouble.
Trump will have to execute perfectly to win reelection. Peace with N Korea, winning the trade battle with China and other countries, expanding the economy and manufacturing, getting Russia to back off, etc.
Or the Democrats nominating an idiot like Kamala Harris works too but unlikely.
I thought the Dems actually didn't meet expectations in the Senate races. That while they gained seats in the House, it wasn't to the levels many experts predicted, and that that tide change was expected. That overall, Dems performed below the expectations of the big blue wave. Was that not the case?
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No one seriously expected the Dems to win the Senate. The betting odds were 1:5. With the Reps only holding 53 (Heller!!!) and the number of Rep seats up for election in 2020, the GOP Senate is heading into rough water. Regarding the House:
Cox's victory combined with other election results means that Democrats have picked up a net gain of 40 seats.
As has oft been repeated, this is the largest Democratic House gain since 1974. It's a larger gain than Democrats had in the wave elections of both 1982 and 2006.
We can go back even further and see how unusual it is that Democrats picked up this many seats. If you go back all the way to first election of the post-World War II era (1946), there have only been three elections in which Democrats net gained more seats than they did in 2018. Put another way, this was the fourth best performance for Democrats in the 37 general House elections since President Donald Trump was born.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/06/politics/latest-house-vote-blue-wave/index.html
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That's not evidence. That's your opinion.
Show studies, stats, and reports that back up your opinion, or admit you are making that "factoid" up.
Wrong, it's not my opinion, it's my observation. You seem to confuse the two.
But here are some facts to support my observation
Facts:
1 in 8 Trump voters changed their minds
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/20/do-over-1-in-8-people-who-voted-for-trump-want-to-change-their-vote-reutersipsos-poll.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-poll/one-in-eight-people-who-voted-for-trump-having-second-thoughts-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1A5127
7% of Trump voters would pick another candidate in 2016 if they could.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/359550-poll-82-percent-of-trump-voters-say-theyd-do-it-again
Poll: Just 36% of Americans indicate they would vote for Trump in 2020
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-just-36-americans-indicate-they-would-vote-trump-2020-n831266
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Trump gets impeached and Pence takes over.
Pence then assigns Trump as VP
Pence steps down and Trump is no POTUS again
Trump assigns Pence as VP.
Would be a trip if Muellers report takes down the Clintons and others like (actually working for Trump). Whistleblower for the Clintons Foundation got raided a few days ago by the FBI. Is this a start?
Interesting theory but I don't see any motive for Pence to step down if made president.
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Wrong, it's not my opinion, it's my observation. You seem to confuse the two.
But here are some facts to support my observation
Facts:
1 in 8 Trump voters changed their minds
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/20/do-over-1-in-8-people-who-voted-for-trump-want-to-change-their-vote-reutersipsos-poll.html
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-poll/one-in-eight-people-who-voted-for-trump-having-second-thoughts-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1A5127
7% of Trump voters would pick another candidate in 2016 if they could.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/359550-poll-82-percent-of-trump-voters-say-theyd-do-it-again
Poll: Just 36% of Americans indicate they would vote for Trump in 2020
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-just-36-americans-indicate-they-would-vote-trump-2020-n831266
Will Donald Trump win re-election in 2020? More Americans now say yes: CNN poll
https://www.oregonlive.com/expo/news/erry-2018/10/555efff04f8649/will-donald-trump-win-reelecti.html
His approval rating among Black voters is over 36%. That's compared to the projected 8% of Black voters supporting him in the 2016 election.
A few regret their vote for Trump. Most do not.
https://www.minnpost.com/eric-black-ink/2018/05/view-trump-voters-18-months/
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Will Donald Trump win re-election in 2020? More Americans now say yes: CNN poll
https://www.oregonlive.com/expo/news/erry-2018/10/555efff04f8649/will-donald-trump-win-reelecti.html
His approval rating among Black voters is over 36%. That's compared to the projected 8% of Black voters supporting him in the 2016 election.
A few regret their vote for Trump. Most do not.
https://www.minnpost.com/eric-black-ink/2018/05/view-trump-voters-18-months/
If he can maintain or increase that approval rating with black voters then he might be able to make up for the other supporters he lost. Time will tell.
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He is upsetting a lot of people with his support of gun laws...
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He is upsetting a lot of people with his support of gun laws...
We may want to consider how we are going to deal with gun confiscation.
Since all your guns are registered, they know right where to find YOU!
Cops will be happy to kill you, if they perceive the least little threat,
while enforcing the law.
I've made my decision, Molon Labe.
I suspect many on this site will feebly go along to get along.
This is a public forum, I do not violate any constitutional Federal, State,
or local laws.
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We may want to consider how we are going to deal with gun confiscation.
Since all your guns are registered, they know right where to find YOU!
Cops will be happy to kill you, if they perceive the least little threat,
while enforcing the law.
I've made my decision, Molon Labe.
I suspect many on this site will feebly go along to get along.
This is a public forum, I do not violate any constitutional Federal, State,
or local laws.
Some people have moved since applying for the last gun they bought. But now with google-fu, I'm sure they can still find you. At least some cities police chief has the balls to say they will not enforce unconstitutional laws.
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I've made my decision, Molon Labe.
Made sure my wife was clear on my feelings about confiscation and what might happen.
May have to move just myself to a free state, but she knows that.
She prefers that to me going guerilla, so to speak, at my age a bit ridiculous to be running about in the woods.