2aHawaii
General Topics => Political Discussion => Topic started by: Inspector on January 01, 2020, 04:00:38 PM
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This is a Wall Street Journal article. If you don’t have an account with them you won’t be able to read it. So I cut and pasted it here. Also, I edited out the data for 2019.
There is a couple of notable things in this article. The first is that due to the 2020 census data, both NY and CA will probably lose a seat in the House. And most of the states that are losing a seat are blue states. Also, most of the states that are gaining the seats are Red and purple states.
BUT (This part is NOT in the article), the best news is that one of the most vulnerable seats in NY is the one that AOC represents! About 25% of her constituents are not citizens. This makes her district particularly vulnerable to being the one seat that NY will have to give up. It’s not for sure yet, so we will have to wait and see.
WASHINGTON—New state census totals show population continuing to shift from the North and Midwest to the South and Southwest in ways that could help states that have voted Republican in recent years.
The Census Bureau released on Monday state population estimates for the year ended July 1. Congressional seats and electoral votes are allocated to states based on a census conducted every 10 years.
Changes based on next year’s census will not affect the 2020 presidential election.
Based on Monday’s figures, Texas is poised to gain two congressional seats, while Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon are each expected to gain one.
Eight states are likely to lose one seat: Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia and California. It would be California’s first such loss since it became a state in 1850.
Kimball Brace, president of the bipartisan political consulting firm Election Data Services, said he expects the changes will benefit the Republican Party. “The big states that are very much Democratic are in a loss situation,” he said, citing California, Illinois and New York, while traditionally Republican states like Texas and Arizona are poised to gain power.
Democrats have said in Texas and Arizona, the growth of the Latino populations and new residents from other states could eventually turn them blue. Democrats noted how population movements in recent years have moved the partisan makeup of some states in their favor, including Virginia and Colorado.
The results of the 2020 census will determine the new distribution of House seats and Electoral College votes by December 2020. The first elections likely to be affected by the seat changes will be in 2021. Most states will redraw congressional and legislative districts in time for 2022 votes.
The final 2020 state population totals will be shaped by how accurate the census is, and additional population totals from overseas workers.
The exact shift of political power also will depend on who wins control of state legislatures in 2020 elections, since those officials will help redraw districts and legislative maps.
The new figures also show the total U.S. population grew 0.5% for the year ended July. 1. That was the slowest pace in a century, according to William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution.
The latest data reflect sweeping changes across the U.S. since the start of the decade. Americans are getting older and having fewer babies. Immigration is slowing, and the rate at which people move between states is at its lowest level in decades. Those who do uproot are often leaving the Northeast and Midwest for warmer places in the Sunbelt and pockets of the West because of their favorable weather, strong job growth, cheaper housing and, in some cases, lower taxes.
Mr. Brace used the new census figures to project how much each state could grow or shrink between July and April, when most Americans are expected to answer the 2020 census. Based on those calculations, he expects the map would further change to give Texas and Florida three and two more seats, respectively, while Alabama and Ohio would each lose one.
According to Monday’s census data, 10 states lost population during the year ended July 1: Alaska, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Vermont and West Virginia. Michigan and Pennsylvania were effectively flat.
Declining immigration helped slow U.S. population growth. Net international migration (which includes immigrants and U.S. residents moving in and out) totaled 595,000 for the year ended July 1, compared with 702,000 the previous year and an average of 929,000 across the previous five years.
California is an exception to the Western state growth trend. This month the state said its population grew 0.35% in the year ended July 1, the slowest pace on record since 1900. The new census estimates show that more residents left the state than moved in for the third consecutive year.
The 2010 Census marked the first time California didn’t gain a congressional seat since it became a state. Its high cost of living, tight supply of housing, threat of natural disaster and restrictions on foreign workers have all helped slow the state’s population growth, said Jeanne Gobalet, a vice president at Lapkoff & Gobalet Demographic Research who is based in Saratoga, Calif.
“California’s less appealing as a destination,” she said. The lifelong Golden State resident has noticed that people she meets outside the state “talk about California as a place they might like to visit in their lifetimes, and they don’t really want to live there.”
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I read the article.
I permanetly escaped CA in 1979.
I have a concern that the people leaving now will take their bad
voting habits with them. But in hind sight it is probably the guys that
are fed up with Democrat party BS that leave. I'm a Regan voter,
I went to WA state and then here to HI, you can't get much bluer than
the two states. It is a waste of my time to vote in either place.
I do still vote, write, and call but I know it is just urinating into the wind.
Some time back I looked into leaving Hawaii, but found that my options
weren't much better on the mainland. I even priced it down to
the price of going to the dump. I decided to stay because
Honolulu government is so incompetent that we can generally ignore it
on the outer islands. Honolulu doesn't have enough money to enforce all
the laws they pass. They pour all the money into aunties and uncles
unions and choo choo's.
Hawaii can't afford enough cops to catch all the drunks, much less chase down
people with legal guns.
I wonder how HPD will react to to people that stop cooperating?