IMF sends in Tom Cruise to stop the communist's plot to destroy global economy ! 8)...
As of 04/17/2020
Hawaii Unemployment Rate: 37%* (https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/04/17/breaking-news/37-of-hawaiis-labor-force-files-unemployment-claims/)
* This figure does not take into consideration the many thousands in Hawaii who have been working for cash, who have since lost their source of income due to Covid-19. If that group is included, the real unemployment rate could be as high as 50%.
My contacts in the state have shared that the unemployment insurance fund is rapidly loosing funds and might go dry way before the beginning of the third quarter of this year. With Governor Ige already proposing 20% pay cuts for state worker for the next 2 years, the fact that federal small business loans have already run out from the latest stimulus bill passed roughly two weeks ago, and the fact that Hawaii will not generate much tourist revenue this coming Summer and the rest of the year for that matter, an economic depression is starting to look like a reality as soon as this coming third quarter.
Stay tuned.
“The sky is falling, the sky is falling” :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:This is exactly how I feel when I see this sort of post. In some ways I consider this type of post trolling. But that is my opinion only. At the very least when only one side is presented and it is the sensationalism side of nothing but doom and gloom it smacks of trying to get someone’s emotions riled. In my opinion if Kuleana wanted to truly discuss this topic in its entirety he would have researched this subject a lot more and presented facts from both sides, not just one side, and not present projections. But the post is what it is.
This is exactly how I feel when I see this sort of post. In some ways I consider this type of post trolling. But that is my opinion only. At the very least when only one side is presented and it is the sensationalism side of nothing but doom and gloom it smacks of trying to get someone’s emotions riled. In my opinion if Kuleana wanted to truly discuss this topic in its entirety he would have researched this subject a lot more and presented facts from both sides, not just one side, and not present projections. But the post is what it is.Inspector, you and I think a lot alike perhaps because of age, we grew up in the same area,
First I want to go on record as saying unlike some, I cannot and will not try and project what the future is going to be. They don’t know and neither do I. I also want to state that in order for the world to be in a global depression, then the US with the worlds largest economy has to also be in a depression. And at this point, we are far from a depression. We are not officially in a recession yet tho it is a forgone conclusion when the quarter ends we will be. The definition of a recession precludes us from officially saying so until we have 2 quarters (or 6 months) in a row if my memory serves me correctly. I also want to go on record as saying that it could very well happen that we go into a depression. There is just not enough facts and statistics yet for the period of time required to be able to state we are even close to a depression yet. I think it serves little purpose to try and sensationalize what is happening in other economies when our economy is not close, yet.
With all this said, we actually did learn from the Great Depression. We put in place numerous monetary and fiscal policies to try and prevent a depression from happening again here in the US. We have numerous Stabilization policies that will keep us stable even if we do enter a depression. The FED is in place to help stabilize interest rates. Our banks are much better prepared with cash and liquidity in case there are a lot of mortgage defaults. Even more so than the real estate bust of 2008. We have UI for those who lose their jobs to help them pay their mortgages for up to a year. We have FDIC insured bank accounts so people don’t lose their funds if a bank goes under. There is a lot more, one can Google it if they care to.
The bottom line is there is all sorts of sensational headlines regarding this topic. Most of them are there to sell content. If you read them closely, most “Project” or predict what could be. And try to spread doom and gloom. I’m not saying they can’t come true sometime in the future. Just that 2 months ago our future was bright and upbeat. So take everything you read here with a grain of salt until we have more data over a considerable time period.
This thread was not started to create panic, but to share all available economic and financial related information for people to make their own decisions on how to prepare with regards to the economic and financial fallout from Covid-19.
If one wishes to simply believe in what the government says or what it has in-place to protect them, that is their business. This thread is for those who want to share and learn, if there is anything outside of that they should know.
FYI. USA Today has just reported that Hawaii's unemployment rate is the highest in the US and the figure they were using was already outdated, since the Star Advertiser's report I posted yesterday.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/04/18/hawaii-news/hawaii-has-the-highest-unemployment-rate-in-the-nation-usa-today-reports/?HSA=ebacc6aa049946455017017ee772b4a900c45fe3
as per usual, everyone who doesn't believe what you say is blindly obedient to the government, and what you know is outside of what everyone else knows...The UI “loosing” funds? Maybe they should tighten things up?
This is exactly how I feel when I see this sort of post. In some ways I consider this type of post trolling. But that is my opinion only. At the very least when only one side is presented and it is the sensationalism side of nothing but doom and gloom it smacks of trying to get someone’s emotions riled. In my opinion if Kuleana wanted to truly discuss this topic in its entirety he would have researched this subject a lot more and presented facts from both sides, not just one side, and not present projections. But the post is what it is.Is the current situation good? Uh, no. Is the current situation have potential to be very bad? Of course. But you hit on a couple of key things. Sensationalism and emotional riling. The sort of irrational reaction to this situation that IMO is and will be very damaging, more than the virus itself.
First I want to go on record as saying unlike some, I cannot and will not try and project what the future is going to be. They don’t know and neither do I. I also want to state that in order for the world to be in a global depression, then the US with the worlds largest economy has to also be in a depression. And at this point, we are far from a depression. We are not officially in a recession yet tho it is a forgone conclusion when the quarter ends we will be. The definition of a recession precludes us from officially saying so until we have 2 quarters (or 6 months) in a row if my memory serves me correctly. I also want to go on record as saying that it could very well happen that we go into a depression. There is just not enough facts and statistics yet for the period of time required to be able to state we are even close to a depression yet. I think it serves little purpose to try and sensationalize what is happening in other economies when our economy is not close, yet.
With all this said, we actually did learn from the Great Depression. We put in place numerous monetary and fiscal policies to try and prevent a depression from happening again here in the US. We have numerous Stabilization policies that will keep us stable even if we do enter a depression. The FED is in place to help stabilize interest rates. Our banks are much better prepared with cash and liquidity in case there are a lot of mortgage defaults. Even more so than the real estate bust of 2008. We have UI for those who lose their jobs to help them pay their mortgages for up to a year. We have FDIC insured bank accounts so people don’t lose their funds if a bank goes under. There is a lot more, one can Google it if they care to.
The bottom line is there is all sorts of sensational headlines regarding this topic. Most of them are there to sell content. If you read them closely, most “Project” or predict what could be. And try to spread doom and gloom. I’m not saying they can’t come true sometime in the future. Just that 2 months ago our future was bright and upbeat. So take everything you read here with a grain of salt until we have more data over a considerable time period.
The UI “loosing” funds? Maybe they should tighten things up?Looks like your time in Seattle didn't turn you to the dark side
But seriously, it’s not like that is even remotely a surprise. I’m by no means an economist, but don’t need “intel” for any of that.
Is the current situation good? Uh, no. Is the current situation have potential to be very bad? Of course. But you hit on a couple of key things. Sensationalism and emotional riling. The sort of irrational reaction to this situation that IMO is and will be very damaging, more than the virus itself.
as per usual, everyone who doesn't believe what you say is blindly obedient to the government, and what you know is outside of what everyone else knows...
Look on the bright side. COVID 19 has caused crime, traffic and accidents to drop dramatically. Gas prices are down, my friend in MN sent me a picture reg gas $0.91 and his smiling face. LA and China have clear skies now. Ins co giving drivers 15% discount. The Fed giving us money and allowing us to pay our taxes 90 days later. Us old guys get to shop before the rest of the crowd and best of all, this may bring down the Democratic party in Hawaii.
Do not compare my re-posting of the DOH update on Corona virus in Hawaii to your post. :wtf:
In my post I neither plagiarize nor insert my personal opinion, hearsay information from "my contacts" , predict the future or question government action.
Inspector, you and I think a lot alike perhaps because of age, we grew up in the same area,You and I have spoken at great length about our backgrounds and our opinions. Yeah, I think we drank the same koolaid! :rofl:
but I blame it all on the similar water we drank.
In all probability there will not be a Depression in sense of the world Depression of the 1930's
as you say there have been many changes to our money system to prevent that.
However, something new has developed. I have warned about this for years.
Simply put, people are a pain in the ass. A pain to employ, work with, and in many cases
to be with in public places.
So for employment there has been an unstoppable move to automate. This will continue.
People like me have done this work and it will only grow, improve, and will become as normal as
breathing. Problem is what do you do with all the people that no longer have jobs?
Most people are clever, but intellectually dumb as posts. Re-train them all to Code? NOT!
I'm fluent in about 20 or so computer languages. I know how to design computer languages.
I can design electronic circuits.
I'm close to being obsolete as AI matures.
Luckily I'm retired.
Next is debt, a promise to repay something loaned. My Social Security and Medicare
are all promises to repay us for money we spent our working lives loaning to the government.
Fewer workers paying taxes is a problem in paying that debt owed to me and you.
The general public has not considered that. It rather looks like a "Logans run" solution is in the works.
I welcome a depression of prices, as most wealth is artificial "paper" and isn't real in a tangible sense.
Why has my home quadrupled in value? Occam's razor answer is, just so the government can tax me
more for it.
The FED has been artificially been causing inflation for nearly a century now. It isn't real,
A reset will be welcome.
Expect a corresponding reset in wages. It is ridiculous for a Longshoreman to earn more than a doctor,
for a lawyer to earn more than a nurse, for a senator to become a multimillionaire.
I prepare for disasters, I'm hoping I did good, but If I didn't, oh well.
I worry about my daughter and her family. My grandson will bear the brunt
of all this, a Democrat run economy.
People like you and I are sliding down the slippery side of the mountain
we spent our lives climbing. Grand kids are are still climbing.
People that support people like Hillary are throwing rocks at our Grand kids.
At our ages it will be difficult to stop it.
This thread was not started to create panic, but to share all available economic and financial related information for people to make their own decisions on how to prepare with regards to the economic and financial fallout from Covid-19.Kuleana, I really think you should go back and reread what I wrote. My statements were very clear and should not be interpreted any other way than I intended. In a nutshell I stated that you only presented one side of this and if you really wanted to prepare people and discuss this you should have presented both sides. Not just the one doom and gloom side. I was very clear about this. If you simply would like to believe what the government says then you would believe only the side you are taking. You see, the projections and data you provided ultimately were provided by a government source or made up. Seems like you are believing a government source of some government that may or may not be reliable. Yet you accuse anyone who doesn’t believe in your side of doing the same. Hypocritical in my opinion. Don’t call people out for their beliefs when you are just as guilty.
If one wishes to simply believe in what the government says or what it has in-place to protect them, that is their business. This thread is for those who want to share and learn, if there is anything outside of that they should know.
FYI. USA Today has just reported that Hawaii's unemployment rate is the highest in the US and the figure they were using was already outdated, since the Star Advertiser's report I posted yesterday.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/04/18/hawaii-news/hawaii-has-the-highest-unemployment-rate-in-the-nation-usa-today-reports/?HSA=ebacc6aa049946455017017ee772b4a900c45fe3
Do not compare my re-posting of the DOH update on Corona virus in Hawaii to your post. :wtf:Exactly. You are providing facts and he provided conjecture. Huge difference.
In my post I neither plagiarize nor insert my personal opinion, hearsay information from "my contacts" , predict the future or question government action.
don't count on thatThat might not be able to be stopped, but every other district can offset such a mistake, if cards are played right.
everyone thinks that Dr Josh "i'm a doctor" green is such a great guy
he's a total socialist...
Kuleana, I really think you should go back and reread what I wrote. My statements were very clear and should not be interpreted any other way than I intended. In a nutshell I stated that you only presented one side of this and if you really wanted to prepare people and discuss this you should have presented both sides. Not just the one doom and gloom side. I was very clear about this. If you simply would like to believe what the government says then you would believe only the side you are taking. You see, the projections and data you provided ultimately were provided by a government source or made up. Seems like you are believing a government source of some government that may or may not be reliable. Yet you accuse anyone who doesn’t believe in your side of doing the same. Hypocritical in my opinion. Don’t call people out for their beliefs when you are just as guilty.
Now, you just presented a factual statement about Hawaii’s unemployment rate. Great! Let’s discuss that. But don’t forget that number was provided by the government and you seem to criticize the side that doesn’t agree with you by believing a government source. Let’s not make presumptions and accuse here. If you really want to discuss this subject like you claim then quit making statements like that. JMHO
HSTA supported ige.Ige is thinking how can I get all the stimulus money the state workers just got from Uncle Sam. I know, cut their pay by 20% and they can use the $1200 for cover the pay cut. If a state worker makes $40k a year, $1200 will cover a 20% pay cut for almost 8 weeks. Just enough time to get over this crisis.
Takes some of the worry out of it. :geekdanc:
Not if I don’t have a paycheck.
(And FlappDarmokMauidogMoosed you can take that Flapp dance and shove it up your ass. Acting like this is a light laughable situation for a lot of people is f’d up. Crossed the line in my opinion. And I couldn’t care less about your opinion on my opinion.)
To all the prior posts:
Two sides to the story? What’s the positive side.
I need to know to take some of the worry out of it.
20% unemployment in Hawaii. Over 200,000 unemployed. No definitive end in sight. Just got extended 2 weeks.
I’m assuming not many of the unemployed claiming benefits are getting retirement Social Security checks.
PPP funds exhausted in the first 3 weeks.
Don’t tell me not to knee jerk and spread propaganda because I haven’t done any of that.
What’s the positive side of the economy and how will it recover in a reasonable time?
I guess we could just keep printing money that’s worth nothing.
End of rant.
Neil Diamond posts a fireside rendition of “Sweet Caroline” with its familiar lyrics tweaked to say,
“Hands … washing hands.” A news anchor asks when social distancing will end because “my
husband keeps trying to get into the house.” And a sign outside a neighborhood church reads:
“Had not planned on giving up quite this much for Lent.”
Are we allowed to chuckle yet? We’d better, psychologists and humorists say. Laughter can be
the best medicine, they argue, so long as it’s within the bounds of good taste. And in a crisis, it
can be a powerful coping mechanism.
“It’s more than just medicine. It’s survival,” said Erica Rhodes, a Los Angeles comedian.
“Even during the Holocaust, people told jokes,” Rhodes said in a telephone interview with The
Associated Press. “Laughter is a symbol of hope, and it becomes one of our greatest needs of
life, right up there with toilet paper. It’s a physical need people have. You can’t underestimate
how it heals people and gives them hope.”
I was hoping you still had me blocked and wouldn’t respond with drivel.
Watched Norm 3 weeks ago. He’s awesome.
As for you, Same old same old.
Divert and attack.
Can’t answer direct question.
Expected.
Hoping some other members can answer.
Two sides to story. What’s the positive side?
No Depression ? Quick rebound ?
Not if I don’t have a paycheck.
(And FlappDarmokMauidogMoosed you can take that Flapp dance and shove it up your ass. Acting like this is a light laughable situation for a lot of people is f’d up. Crossed the line in my opinion. And I couldn’t care less about your opinion on my opinion.)
Like I said.
Divert and attack.
Thanks for proving the point. :geekdanc:
Like I said.
Divert and attack.
Thanks for proving the point. :geekdanc:
"I couldn’t care less about your opinion on my opinion."We just gonna do this round and round?
So, you don't want me to give an opinion, then you cry like a baby because I don't.
You must have gotten into your SHTF stash of booze.
Go sleep it off. :sleeping:
Like I said.
Divert and attack.
Can’t answer direct question.
Thanks for proving the point. :geekdanc:
Hound,
To all the prior posts:
Two sides to the story? What’s the positive side.
I need to know to take some of the worry out of it.
20% unemployment in Hawaii. Over 200,000 unemployed. No definitive end in sight. Just got extended 2 weeks.
I’m assuming not many of the unemployed claiming benefits are getting retirement Social Security checks.
PPP funds exhausted in the first 3 weeks.
Don’t tell me not to knee jerk and spread propaganda because I haven’t done any of that.
What’s the positive side of the economy and how will it recover in a reasonable time?
I guess we could just keep printing money that’s worth nothing.
End of rant.
Not if I don’t have a paycheck.
(And FlappDarmokMauidogMoosed you can take that Flapp dance and shove it up your ass. Acting like this is a light laughable situation for a lot of people is f’d up. Crossed the line in my opinion. And I couldn’t care less about your opinion on my opinion.)
To all the prior posts:
Two sides to the story? What’s the positive side.
I need to know to take some of the worry out of it.
20% unemployment in Hawaii. Over 200,000 unemployed. No definitive end in sight. Just got extended 2 weeks.
I’m assuming not many of the unemployed claiming benefits are getting retirement Social Security checks.
PPP funds exhausted in the first 3 weeks.
Don’t tell me not to knee jerk and spread propaganda because I haven’t done any of that.
What’s the positive side of the economy and how will it recover in a reasonable time?
I guess we could just keep printing money that’s worth nothing.
End of rant.
You and I have spoken at great length about our backgrounds and our opinions. Yeah, I think we drank the same koolaid! :rofl:Prescott Valley? I think my mothers first cousin lives there.
You said one thing that I am not sure about. Because so far we have been able to create and keep employed all the people who should have been replaced by automation. The exceptionally low unemployment and underemployed rates I think bear that out. Anyone who wanted to work was working. Certain jobs cannot be completely replaced. And those jobs are the ones that will remain in high demand and correspondingly high pay. You had one of those jobs. While the languages you know might become obsolete, there will be new and better languages created and so the cycle continues. As we build more automation the people designing and building and maintaining will be needed. Like I said, I am not sure about this as I don’t see a lot of evidence yet that there are not enough jobs for people when just a couple of months ago we had 7M more jobs than we had eligible people to fill them. We needed to import qualified people to fill those jobs. So I am not sure it will ever happen, but if it does it probably won’t be in our lifetime.
The baby boomers are almost all retired now. The boomers end in 1964. I just retired as early as I could and I was born in 1958. So in 6-7 years the retiring boomers are going to drop down in numbers. And as we die off faster than we begin SS our burden on the system will dwindle. They have been talking about how the boomers are going to ruin SS for the next generation. It won’t be long before the trend starts to reverse. I think there is an immediate problem that needs to be addressed and soon, but I don’t think in 15-20 years it will be that big of a problem as we boomers continue to die off. BTW, one big reason I decided to retire now is so whatever our government decides to do to fix and save SS in the near term should not effect me as they usually don’t touch those who are already collecting and should be grandfathered in.
Hound,Most the time you and I disagree mainly on Military stuff.
You have read my posts, honest comments and accusations made against them, and my subsequent responses. I did not start a thread of panic or try to create drama; I started a thread to talk and discuss whatever facts available, analysis, and commentary from our forum community, with the hopes the resulting discussions will bring insights, not only in one's physical preparations, but also mindset going forward in the near future. The main reason I have and chosen not to spend too much time on positive aspects in the news is because those who are really suffering (i.e., people who have lost employment) have most likely already heard it and are intuitive enough to know that such information is more towards to calm people's fears, rather than offer specific answers on how it improves the living situation of the average joe on the street.
Having said that, as a practicing economist, I began posting economic publicly reported data, along with insight and analysis from my discussions with people who work in the government and colleagues from other countries. I stand-by everything I said and further share my view that things will not get back to normal anytime soon. In the short-term, the only semblance of recovery my colleagues and I are HOPING to see is during the upcoming Summer months, where it is HOPED that the rate of transmission between people will dramatically fall due to the high volume of UV rays that will bombard the planet at that time. IF the expectations are accurate, those unemployed should milk it for all its worth, reduce their debt, and financially prepare for even harder times. Once the Summer is gone, flu season returns and with no vaccines available at that time, you can bet Covid-19 will come back with a global vengeance. Coupled with the fact it will be highly doubtful that everyone in Hawaii who lost their job now will get it back in the third quarter of this year at the same rate of pay, the average joe should begin rethinking their living arrangements and living budgets now.
Now, the rebuttal of the scenario I shared above, will focus on the government stimulus actions to date that I will not go over, as it was accurately shared by Inspector and I AGREE with the theoretical outcome IF everything goes according to plan. However, the flaw I see in that view that is shared by many who have been unemployed are multifold. First, we know already that unemployment insurance will not have the funds to cover people for the next six months. Second, the money earmarked for small business in the latest stimulus package with the hopes of retaining workers has capped off. Third, with the prospects of a SAFE and RELIABLE vaccine realistically not being available in near term, there is no reason to believe the economic effects of Covid-19 will go away for the rest of this year. Fourth, we need to remember that the US economy is tied to the global economy and even if the US is open for business, the REST of the World may be not; hence customers and suppliers to the US might not be ready to conduct business yet. What this means is that there IS reason to have cautious hope, but the average joe will be better served still preparing for the worst.
It is at the beginning of the third quarter where will we truly see whether a global depression will be a reality. The third quarter of this year will signal the beginning of flu season and Covid-19. It is here my eyes and I suggest everyone else's eyes should be on the macroeconomic indicators. IF everything goes as planned, as recounted by Inspector, we should start seeing local, national, and global GDP rising. IF so, we can all laugh, eat chicken at Popeyes, and look forward to getting employment back on track to pre Covid-19 levels. IF there is any significant indication of GDP decline, this will be the sign that deflation will soon be upon us because there will be things to buy, but no one around with enough discretionary income to buy them. Moreover, with the trillions of US dollars printed up to that point, hyperinflation will rear its head to everyone's detriment sometime, thereafter.
As it stands, the truth of the matter for all those unemployed is that everyone affected will get their $1,200 plus $500 per child bailout that does not need to be reported in income taxes. Despite most of the money going to prop up Wall Street, the government has also made available, through already depleted, crumbs for small business to retain its workers. In the short-term, be ready to cash-in for some reopening of the economy during the Summer. However, save that money to prepare for any future contingencies in daily living expenditures. Finally, keep your eyes on the macroeconomic indicators come third quarter, as that will be the make or break economic moment for the year.
I look forward to getting all kinds of information and discourse to what I just shared because I hope I am totally wrong. However, I still feel we need to be constantly reminded of what could go wrong, as that is what has happened and what everyone has been responding to till this point.
Be safe, healthy, and prepare as best you can Hound. :shaka:
Hoping some other members can answer.
Two sides to story. What’s the positive side?
No Depression ? Quick rebound ?
Prescott Valley? I think my mothers first cousin lives there.Thanks for the well wishes my friend.
I have one of his books( it is not very good).
The glass is half empty.
There were lots of new jobs created and unfilled.
but the wages were shit.
and they were service jobs.
Us "old farts" will die off in the next twenty years or so,
that is true. We got ours, now they can try to get theirs.
I fear we cannot accommodate the kids as well
as we were helped in our youth.
Y'all know most people aren't cut out
to be "self actualizing".
Sorry, result of going to Liberal Seattle universities.
Be well.
Aloha.
This is coming from someone still relatively young, with 3 small children who is currently furloughed.
We’ve been homeschooling the kids from the beginning (charter school), so this is business as usual. More parents will have to engage in home schooling and hopefully realize the liberal indoctrination that’s going on. That, and realize they can teach them themselves. This brings more parent child interaction, which will hopefully foster a better relationship and bring more parent involvement. I believe this applies to rip off colleges too.
There is no sports (modern day colosseum) to distract the masses so people are hopefully being more productive with their time, learning a new instrument via lesson online, studying history, paying more attention to people in office, fixing their homes, tending to the piles that haven’t been tended to, etc.
Times like these makes people take a step back and realize what is really important. It’s easy to lose sight of that in today’s go go go world.
I don’t know what the future will hold, but there is always opportunity in crisis. There are industries that are thriving right now. Groceries, video chat apps, etc.
This is coming from someone who worries quite a bit as well.
Hound,
You have read my posts, honest comments and accusations made against them, and my subsequent responses. I did not start a thread of panic or try to create drama; I started a thread to talk and discuss whatever facts available, analysis, and commentary from our forum community, with the hopes the resulting discussions will bring insights, not only in one's physical preparations, but also mindset going forward in the near future. The main reason I have and chosen not to spend too much time on positive aspects in the news is because those who are really suffering (i.e., people who have lost employment) have most likely already heard it and are intuitive enough to know that such information is more towards to calm people's fears, rather than offer specific answers on how it improves the living situation of the average joe on the street.
Having said that, as a practicing economist, I began posting economic publicly reported data, along with insight and analysis from my discussions with people who work in the government and colleagues from other countries. I stand-by everything I said and further share my view that things will not get back to normal anytime soon. In the short-term, the only semblance of recovery my colleagues and I are HOPING to see is during the upcoming Summer months, where it is HOPED that the rate of transmission between people will dramatically fall due to the high volume of UV rays that will bombard the planet at that time. IF the expectations are accurate, those unemployed should milk it for all its worth, reduce their debt, and financially prepare for even harder times. Once the Summer is gone, flu season returns and with no vaccines available at that time, you can bet Covid-19 will come back with a global vengeance. Coupled with the fact it will be highly doubtful that everyone in Hawaii who lost their job now will get it back in the third quarter of this year at the same rate of pay, the average joe should begin rethinking their living arrangements and living budgets now.
Now, the rebuttal of the scenario I shared above, will focus on the government stimulus actions to date that I will not go over, as it was accurately shared by Inspector and I AGREE with the theoretical outcome IF everything goes according to plan. However, the flaw I see in that view that is shared by many who have been unemployed are multifold. First, we know already that unemployment insurance will not have the funds to cover people for the next six months. Second, the money earmarked for small business in the latest stimulus package with the hopes of retaining workers has capped off. Third, with the prospects of a SAFE and RELIABLE vaccine realistically not being available in near term, there is no reason to believe the economic effects of Covid-19 will go away for the rest of this year. Fourth, we need to remember that the US economy is tied to the global economy and even if the US is open for business, the REST of the World may be not; hence customers and suppliers to the US might not be ready to conduct business yet. What this means is that there IS reason to have cautious hope, but the average joe will be better served still preparing for the worst.
It is at the beginning of the third quarter where will we truly see whether a global depression will be a reality. The third quarter of this year will signal the beginning of flu season and Covid-19. It is here my eyes and I suggest everyone else's eyes should be on the macroeconomic indicators. IF everything goes as planned, as recounted by Inspector, we should start seeing local, national, and global GDP rising. IF so, we can all laugh, eat chicken at Popeyes, and look forward to getting employment back on track to pre Covid-19 levels. IF there is any significant indication of GDP decline, this will be the sign that deflation will soon be upon us because there will be things to buy, but no one around with enough discretionary income to buy them. Moreover, with the trillions of US dollars printed up to that point, hyperinflation will rear its head to everyone's detriment sometime, thereafter.
As it stands, the truth of the matter for all those unemployed is that everyone affected will get their $1,200 plus $500 per child bailout that does not need to be reported in income taxes. Despite most of the money going to prop up Wall Street, the government has also made available, through already depleted, crumbs for small business to retain its workers. In the short-term, be ready to cash-in for some reopening of the economy during the Summer. However, save that money to prepare for any future contingencies in daily living expenditures. Finally, keep your eyes on the macroeconomic indicators come third quarter, as that will be the make or break economic moment for the year.
I look forward to getting all kinds of information and discourse to what I just shared because I hope I am totally wrong. However, I still feel we need to be constantly reminded of what could go wrong, as that is what has happened and what everyone has been responding to till this point.
Be safe, healthy, and prepare as best you can Hound. :shaka:
I saw an emergency patient yesterday, and he told me, "hopefully, people will start to be nicer and more considerate to each other"
by far, your best post ever on this forum...
:shaka:
I hope and pray people never forget the sacrifices you and the rest of your health professionals brethren have taken during this crisis. :thumbsup:
Most the time you and I disagree mainly on Military stuff.
But your comment here is within reason.
I'm much more pessimistic than you are.
I know most people are idiots,
you believe they are not.
Hawaii is in for a bad time, if you are not debt free,
can grow your food, have guns and ammo to protect yourself,
and obtain water, you won't survive.
Fear is powerful. How you deal with it
will determine if you survive or not.
Aloha.
the only sacrifice I am making is closing my office to increase social distancing and preserve ppe
my main goal is to keep my mom healthy and safe, along with my staff, patients and the general public
others have sacrificed more and placed themselves in far riskier situations than I have, and they deserve the credit
Hound,Don’t know how I missed your post here. It is very long and very thoughtful. Thank you for it.
You have read my posts, honest comments and accusations made against them, and my subsequent responses. I did not start a thread of panic or try to create drama; I started a thread to talk and discuss whatever facts available, analysis, and commentary from our forum community, with the hopes the resulting discussions will bring insights, not only in one's physical preparations, but also mindset going forward in the near future. The main reason I have and chosen not to spend too much time on positive aspects in the news is because those who are really suffering (i.e., people who have lost employment) have most likely already heard it and are intuitive enough to know that such information is more towards to calm people's fears, rather than offer specific answers on how it improves the living situation of the average joe on the street.
Having said that, as a practicing economist, I began posting economic publicly reported data, along with insight and analysis from my discussions with people who work in the government and colleagues from other countries. I stand-by everything I said and further share my view that things will not get back to normal anytime soon. In the short-term, the only semblance of recovery my colleagues and I are HOPING to see is during the upcoming Summer months, where it is HOPED that the rate of transmission between people will dramatically fall due to the high volume of UV rays that will bombard the planet at that time. IF the expectations are accurate, those unemployed should milk it for all its worth, reduce their debt, and financially prepare for even harder times. Once the Summer is gone, flu season returns and with no vaccines available at that time, you can bet Covid-19 will come back with a global vengeance. Coupled with the fact it will be highly doubtful that everyone in Hawaii who lost their job now will get it back in the third quarter of this year at the same rate of pay, the average joe should begin rethinking their living arrangements and living budgets now.
Now, the rebuttal of the scenario I shared above, will focus on the government stimulus actions to date that I will not go over, as it was accurately shared by Inspector and I AGREE with the theoretical outcome IF everything goes according to plan. However, the flaw I see in that view that is shared by many who have been unemployed are multifold. First, we know already that unemployment insurance will not have the funds to cover people for the next six months. Second, the money earmarked for small business in the latest stimulus package with the hopes of retaining workers has capped off. Third, with the prospects of a SAFE and RELIABLE vaccine realistically not being available in near term, there is no reason to believe the economic effects of Covid-19 will go away for the rest of this year. Fourth, we need to remember that the US economy is tied to the global economy and even if the US is open for business, the REST of the World may be not; hence customers and suppliers to the US might not be ready to conduct business yet. What this means is that there IS reason to have cautious hope, but the average joe will be better served still preparing for the worst.
It is at the beginning of the third quarter where will we truly see whether a global depression will be a reality. The third quarter of this year will signal the beginning of flu season and Covid-19. It is here my eyes and I suggest everyone else's eyes should be on the macroeconomic indicators. IF everything goes as planned, as recounted by Inspector, we should start seeing local, national, and global GDP rising. IF so, we can all laugh, eat chicken at Popeyes, and look forward to getting employment back on track to pre Covid-19 levels. IF there is any significant indication of GDP decline, this will be the sign that deflation will soon be upon us because there will be things to buy, but no one around with enough discretionary income to buy them. Moreover, with the trillions of US dollars printed up to that point, hyperinflation will rear its head to everyone's detriment sometime, thereafter.
As it stands, the truth of the matter for all those unemployed is that everyone affected will get their $1,200 plus $500 per child bailout that does not need to be reported in income taxes. Despite most of the money going to prop up Wall Street, the government has also made available, through already depleted, crumbs for small business to retain its workers. In the short-term, be ready to cash-in for some reopening of the economy during the Summer. However, save that money to prepare for any future contingencies in daily living expenditures. Finally, keep your eyes on the macroeconomic indicators come third quarter, as that will be the make or break economic moment for the year.
I look forward to getting all kinds of information and discourse to what I just shared because I hope I am totally wrong. However, I still feel we need to be constantly reminded of what could go wrong, as that is what has happened and what everyone has been responding to till this point.
Be safe, healthy, and prepare as best you can Hound. :shaka:
[quote author=Inspector link=topic=36423.msg325403#msg325403 date=1587391615As far as the Hawaii market is concerned, the market is soft right now and the prices are dropping. Unfortunately, it happened right in the middle of my selling my home so I had to accept a little lower price than what I was expecting. There is a new mandatory form that both sides have to sign that allows either side to cancel a contract if Covid-19 affects you one way or another. It is a good time for buyers wishing to find a seller that is hard up to sell or just get a home at a decent price. As decent as Hawaii prices are. So the Hawaii market is unique in that a lot of the homes are being bought/sold by military. Meaning they have to sell because they are deploying or being moved. Buyers are not affected by the Covid-19 because they are not going to get laid off. People who need to sell for whatever reason are selling. But those sellers who are uncertain are holding off. Buyers are usually those with essential jobs and are not affected. But those who are not essential but still have jobs are uncertain so they are waiting to buy. So most of what you are seeing is a significant drop in sales and listings. Most RE offices are recommending zero contact with clients unless absolutely necessary. So they are trying to push virtual tours and doing a lot of Internet work. My guess is if you can buy near the end of the year wait and see where the market is going. It will either be dropping or breaking even. If it is still dropping then you might want to consider buying as soon as the government starts to reopen the state for business. This is only a recommendation and not a tip of any type. You need to do your own due diligence.
The real estate market including mortgage providers are seeing a significant slowdown. People are not selling their houses in this time of uncertainty. New home listings are down 27%. And buyers are putting off their purchases as well.
I was just about to ask you how the real estate market was doing.
I've heard interest rates were low right now, but never realized there might be less available on the market.
Hoping I can buy in the next 3 years
As far as the Hawaii market is concerned, the market is soft right now and the prices are dropping. Unfortunately, it happened right in the middle of my selling my home so I had to accept a little lower price than what I was expecting. There is a new mandatory form that both sides have to sign that allows either side to cancel a contract if Covid-19 affects you one way or another. It is a good time for buyers wishing to find a seller that is hard up to sell or just get a home at a decent price. As decent as Hawaii prices are. So the Hawaii market is unique in that a lot of the homes are being bought/sold by military. Meaning they have to sell because they are deploying or being moved. Buyers are not affected by the Covid-19 because they are not going to get laid off. People who need to sell for whatever reason are selling. But those sellers who are uncertain are holding off. Buyers are usually those with essential jobs and are not affected. But those who are not essential but still have jobs are uncertain so they are waiting to buy. So most of what you are seeing is a significant drop in sales and listings. Most RE offices are recommending zero contact with clients unless absolutely necessary. So they are trying to push virtual tours and doing a lot of Internet work. My guess is if you can buy near the end of the year wait and see where the market is going. It will either be dropping or breaking even. If it is still dropping then you might want to consider buying as soon as the government starts to reopen the state for business. This is only a recommendation and not a tip of any type. You need to do your own due diligence.
I can’t say what the market will be like in 3 years.
Thanks for the reply.Thanks for the kind words. As you probably already know I think RE is a good investment. It is where I have invested most of my money. This is my opinion only. Hawaii RE can be a good investment if you are buying a house for yourself and your family. Buy when you have the down payment and you are ready. Take a couple pieces of advice. DO not sign a buyers agreement with your agent. If you end up not liking them and want to fire them you might still have to pay their commission if you sign the agreement. Any agent that tries to get you to sign one doesn’t have a lot of confidence in themselves. Don’t be afraid to fire your agent and find another if you don’t like them. And last but not least, don’t fall in love with a house/home. If you are emotionally involved you will be more inclined to make bad financial decisions before, during and after the sale.
I love reading your posts, replies and all your knowledge.
I wish I was in a better spot to buy now, but that's just what it is
So today the oil market crashed. It is currently below $12/barrel and it touched the $10 range at one point. It needs to be in the $35-$40 per barrel price for our oil companies to make money. There are reports that somewhere in the US that gas is being sold for less than a dollar a gallon. This is a bad sign as it means we may lose our energy independence and dominance. It will take a while before that happens but it could. The real question is how long can Russia and Saudi Arabia sell oil at these prices before they are forced to cut back production so the price goes back up to more normal levels? The markets are down today on the oil market crash. This oil market crash puts this market into depression category. And by the way, this market can crash and go negative. Yes it could get to the point that countries selling oil may have to pay their buyers to have their oil removed out of the ground. Deflation in the oil market is possible. Could it be that we can get paid to pump gas into our cars? Tesla could take a big hit during this time of cheap gas."Boeing just reopened their plants and are going to start building planes again."
Gold and silver are higher today as well as the 10 year govt bond rate going down. This is to be expected in a down market day as investors flee to safety.
The industries related to tourism are taking the biggest hits so far. The cruise lines are getting hit the worst. While airlines are getting hit pretty hard. Boeing just reopened their plants and are going to start building planes again.
The real estate market including mortgage providers are seeing a significant slowdown. People are not selling their houses in this time of uncertainty. New home listings are down 27%. And buyers are putting off their purchases as well.
Some food industries like Campbells are up today and doing quite well in this time. The alcohol industries are also booming right now. Marijuana stocks and stores not doing so well. I expected them to go the same way as alcohol.
There have been some reports that some of the SBA money that is supposed to go to small businesses has gone to some publicly traded companies. This has to be fixed as it is taking money away from small businesses.
On a positive note some large cities and non profits are reporting that in this time of people out of work, Americans are volunteering and there is no shortage of labor being volunteered.
My personal opinion on what is happening in the US and to a lesser extent, the world is that the end of the year will be the telling point whether things are going to turn around or if we are going to move towards a depression. I think it is going to take longer than the projections to get our economy back humming again. I think the key is to open restaurants and small businesses. I think this will go a long way to not only re-energize the economy but it will go a long way towards helping people’s attitudes towards turning positive.
"Boeing just reopened their plants and are going to start building planes again."I wish your brother well. I think it is going to be bumpy for Boeing until at least the end of the year.
My Brother was ordered back to work starting tomorrow.
He builds 737 MAX parts at the Auburn plant.
I don't know what they are going to do with them.
Nobody is flying. I don't
expect that to change much in the next few years.
Flying was already a pain in the ass, now people are
going to be worried about being in a crowd.
Facts and data are always co-opted by perceptions.
in the public eye.
If you can drive there that may become the choice.
20+ years at Boeing and retired engineer.
I know a little bit about airplanes and
the FAA.
Since this is "Off Topic"
I have two aunts that were very successful in real estate,
so I never had to deal with shady real estate types and
I had top notch advice, in all my home purchases and sales.
Your advice to the young man is very sound.
Crude, I believe, traded at below $0 today. This is very concerning to me. Supply exceedingly overwhelming demand. And could very well cause shortages as refiners ramp down production, then will not be able to keep up with spikes in demand. As well as raw crude producers may go belly up, not being able to pay their bills. Causing fuel shortages. This in conjunction with the same fluctuations in food supply and demand spikes and fluctuations is going to cause major problems in food delivery and supply. As well as every other fuel based delivery. In Hawaii this very well could be a huge issue.I was going to write about this yesterday afternoon but I took a nap instead. :rofl:
I'm keeping my eyes open on this.