2aHawaii
General Topics => Political Discussion => Topic started by: ren on August 04, 2020, 10:48:06 AM
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if the virus is already in our community and spreading
https://www.kitv.com/story/42452605/another-death-due-to-covid19-144-new-cases-reported-tuesday (https://www.kitv.com/story/42452605/another-death-due-to-covid19-144-new-cases-reported-tuesday)
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Why quarantine? To keep it from getting worse.
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Why quarantine? To keep it from getting worse.
Forever?
Silly rabbit.
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Forever?
Silly rabbit.
Of course not forever.
Are you not familiar with the concept of flattening the curve? The Spanish Flu lasted for a whole year, we might expect to see something that long with this one too.
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Of course not forever.
Are you not familiar with the concept of flattening the curve? The Spanish Flu lasted for a whole year, we might expect to see something that long with this one too.
Apparently you aren't.
The curve is almost a pancake now. No overwhelming of hospitals and healthcare services. That's the ONLY reason for the flattening: to avoid having more sick at once than we can care for.
New York had the largest infected population and highest infection rate. We provided so many ventilators, beds and facilities (temporary hospital and a giant medical ship), but neither the extra hospital or ship was used.
So, if there's no curve, nothing needs flattening. What's the criteria again for stopping these restrictions -- now that your first try was wrong?
Try again.
https://www.newsweek.com/new-york-governor-andrew-cuomo-praises-donald-trump-responding-very-quickly-coronavirus-outbreak-1492570
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As for quarantining, it's a joke here.
Really tired of hearing "it's the tourist's"
I've seen nothing but groups of 15-100 locals at the beach, parks and homes.
No face masks, plenty of hugs and aloha.
:shaka:
And when I checked Monday, HI had 240 flu deaths.
Flu we have a vaccine for !
:wacko:
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quarantine theory is slow down the patients in the hospital so they are not overwhelmed
but I don't see any enforcement of quarantining, or very little
if people know they can get away with it, they will ignore the quarantine. i'm sure almost everyone that needs to be, does not obey the 14 day quarantine
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The curve is almost a pancake now. No overwhelming of hospitals and healthcare services. That's the ONLY reason for the flattening: to avoid having more sick at once than we can care for.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/hawaii (https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/hawaii)
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As for quarantining, it's a joke here.
Really tired of hearing "it's the tourist's"
I've seen nothing but groups of 15-100 locals at the beach, parks and homes.
No face masks, plenty of hugs and aloha.
:shaka:
And when I checked Monday, HI had 240 flu deaths.
Flu we have a vaccine for !
:wacko:
Had this discussion about tourists or returning residents the other day with some friends. That those returning from trips are just as bad risk if not worse. Because returning residents will likely have more contacts with residents as well as not as aware of higher risks of exposure. Since Memorial day, seems like folks are back to usual summer activities. Large beach camping groups, gatherings, etc. I mean I'm no where near going all Karen and reporting and stuff, but I do notice.
quarantine theory is slow down the patients in the hospital so they are not overwhelmed
but I don't see any enforcement of quarantining, or very little
if people know they can get away with it, they will ignore the quarantine. i'm sure almost everyone that needs to be, does not obey the 14 day quarantine
I agree with you there. No proof or evidence to support my believe, just my opinion. Then there are those being overly safe on the other end of the spectrum. Initially, I thought or hoped that that balance would overall bring infection numbers, percentages, etc down, which it seemed to do so back in Mar-Apr timeframe.
I was pretty cautious and generally stayed home back in Mar-Apr. I would go for walks in the neighborhood just to get outside and get some fresh air. I found it funny that there were people who gave me a wide berth when I was coming the other way. Sheesh, I take a bath daily. . .
:rofl:
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Poll Shows ‘Sobering’ Decline In Americans’ Trust In News Media…Before COVID & Floyd Death
https://thegreggjarrett.com/poll-shows-sobering-decline-in-americans-trust-in-news-media-before-covid-floyd-death/
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The curve has been flattened, and as a response the goalposts have been moved.
The only reason to continue the quarantine is to make sure the hospitals do not get overloaded with severe cases and to protect the elderly and those with pre existing conditions.
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The curve has been flattened, and as a response the goalposts have been moved.
The only reason to continue the quarantine is to make sure the hospitals do not get overloaded with severe cases and to protect the elderly and those with pre existing conditions.
And make babies! :geekdanc:
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My local Big island hospital has 35 beds. We currently send most critical patients to Honolulu. Heart attacks, strokes, certain types of surgery. etc. Most of our high level of care is done in Honolulu.
Queens has a 5 level disaster plan which is for something like Covid. If they reach level 4 they will not take any transfers from the Big Island (or anywhere else). So if Honolulu covid starts to overwhelm capacity then Big Island patients will not be transfers and we dont have the level or care to manage them with these serious conditions.
We are a much different state than New York. We cant simply put people in ambulances and drive them to the next biggest hospital somewhere else in the state or the next state over. We do have plans to open a mobile military hospital in Kona but they wont have a cath lab or other high level services that Honolulu has. I suppose they could drive the hospital ship over here.
So we prefer to not have covid overwhelm Honolulu hospitals because you cant ship us a few cath labs with a team of cardiologists here on the Big Island to deal with all the problems that get sent to honolulu. You also cant lifeflight a heart attack to the mainland because after 6 hours the damage is already done.
Funny, we could have been New Zealand with no cases in the spring time if we actually has a capable government and people staying put for 2 weeks. But we all know they were busy passing gun commission bills instead and beach parties are definitely cool
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Aren't empty beds an opportunity cost for hospitals?
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Aren't empty beds an opportunity cost for hospitals?
This article investigates the cost incurred when hospitals have different levels of beds to treat a given number of patients.
The cost of hospital care is affected by both the forecasted level of admissions and the actual number of admissions. When
the relationship between forecasted and actual admissions is held constant, it is found that an empty hospital bed at a typical
hospital in Michigan has a relatively low cost, about 13 percent or less of the cost of an occupied bed. However, empty beds
in large hospitals do add significantly to cost.
If hospital beds are closed, whether by closing beds at hospitals which remain
in business or by closing entire hospitals, cost savings are estimated to be small.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1068961/
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No overwhelming of hospitals and healthcare services.
Maybe someone here who works for Queens can vet this but by coworkers mom who works there heard that 50 Micronesian's were admitted over the past 3 days from the same family/friend network. She also said they're afraid of running out of facilities for much more if this trend keeps going.
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Apparently you aren't.
The curve is almost a pancake now. No overwhelming of hospitals and healthcare services. That's the ONLY reason for the flattening: to avoid having more sick at once than we can care for.
New York had the largest infected population and highest infection rate. We provided so many ventilators, beds and facilities (temporary hospital and a giant medical ship), but neither the extra hospital or ship was used.
So, if there's no curve, nothing needs flattening. What's the criteria again for stopping these restrictions -- now that your first try was wrong?
Try again.
https://www.newsweek.com/new-york-governor-andrew-cuomo-praises-donald-trump-responding-very-quickly-coronavirus-outbreak-1492570
IIRC the infection numbers for the past week have been setting new records so not sure how the curve is a pancake.
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IIRC the infection numbers for the past week have been setting new records so not sure how the curve is a pancake.
You have to look at the rate of hospitalizations, not just the raw number of positive test results. More positive patients does NOT necessarily equate to the number of hospitalizations. You're picking a higher number of "CASES", but ignoring how many of that number were hospitalized.
We are testing more and more people every day. That by its very nature will find more people with the disease that otherwise may not have been identified without testing.
Don't just look at a graph over time, and don't be lured into the false premise that deaths are all that matters. The proportion of positive patients being hospitalized vs those who are not is also important. Deaths will always go up over time, as the number of deaths is cumulative. I've not heard of any of the dead coming back to life -- at least not recently. Look for week-by-week or month by month death numbers if you're interested. Compare last week with the AVERAGE of the previous 4 weeks to see if there's a trend. I bet it's flat.
If the number of cases is rising, but the number being hospitalized and dying is staying level or going down, it's likely due to younger people plus those without preexisting health issues being tested.
Stats are funny animals. Presentation is everything.
In a nutshell, if hospitalization rates are FLAT, that's the curve that matters. The number of positive test results is mostly irrelevant in the context of flattening the curve.
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Presentation is everything.
Corrected it for you.
Prevention is everything.
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Corrected it for you.
Prevention is everything.
Shows where your misguided thought process is taking you.
When prevention is (1) unattainable without a vaccine, (2) never going to be 100%, and (3) worse than the disease, then you have to rethink your analysis.
The bad economy is already increasing the death toll as a side-effect of "prevention". People are afraid to seek medical help out of fear they will be preventing someone with COVID-19 from getting help, or because they are terrified of getting the virus -- so they stay home.
Mental health is also declining. Suicides are up. Crime, including violent crime, is up. People who can't pay their bills, rent, mortgage, car payments are under stress. Stress kills.
Things are not as simple as you seem to want to believe.
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:facepalm:
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IIRC the infection numbers for the past week have been setting new records so not sure how the curve is a pancake.
the "curve" looks at balancing cases against current medical resources but there is a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding about this "curve" people are generally referring to.
It is not about getting to ZERO infections which is not realistic.
To understand the potential trajectory of the viral infection one will look at the Rt rate and epi curves.
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When prevention is (1) unattainable without a vaccine, (2) never going to be 100%, and (3) worse than the disease, then you have to rethink your analysis.
100% prevention is not attainable, but universal use of PPE goes along way to manage Covid-19, until a safe and reliable vaccine can be found and given to the public.
The bad economy is already increasing the death toll as a side-effect of "prevention". People are afraid to seek medical help out of fear they will be preventing someone with COVID-19 from getting help, or because they are terrified of getting the virus -- so they stay home.
Did you get that information from the CDC or WHO? I don't recall anyone doing a large scale study on those issues. Last time I checked, most of the medical establishments' research activities are devoted in studying the biological effects of Covid-19 itself.
Mental health is also declining. Suicides are up. Crime, including violent crime, is up. People who can't pay their bills, rent, mortgage, car payments are under stress. Stress kills.
Are you putting the blame of all those items at the doorstep of Covid-19.
If you are, you are no different than the corrupt doctors in the hospitals, who are guilty of tagging any death they come across to Covid-19 for profit.
Things are not as simple as you seem to want to believe.
I think that is something you should consider. :thumbsup:
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The bad economy is already increasing the death toll as a side-effect of "prevention". People are afraid to seek medical help out of fear they will be preventing someone with COVID-19 from getting help, or because they are terrified of getting the virus -- so they stay home.
Not true in my area. I am overwhelmed with patients in my clinic. I am still doing telemed for about 25% of the patients but the rest want to come in. This was true early on that people did not get care because of fear of covid or not wanting to take a hospital bed from someone with covid but now they are overwhelming us.
Other factors are at play. remember that the state fired 2 of the 3 state psychiatrists for the Big Island due to lack of funding the same week the legislature passed the bill funding the gun commission.
The Big Island lost 32 physicians since January, my area is down 8 physicians, they are all leaving. This state is a terrible place for a doctor to work and if we are losing physicians who are going back to the mainland during a pandemic where we have low covid numbers then there is a major problem with healthcare already in this state.
Yes the economy is terrible. But the answer isnt pretend covid does not exist and open everything up. The US is losing 4 times as many Americans a day as we did in WWII. You cant possible be someone who would look at the shift in the war economy in WWII and say "we really need to be stopping all this and open up the bars"
Hawaii does not have the healthcare system to handle covid even at the small numbers. One Honolulu hospital is already down to having 2 free ICU beds. At the current rate 2-3 weeks we will not have enough beds, and more importantly, not enough doctors to help people. Hawaii loses 200 doctors a year that are not replaced. This year is already looking worse for that number.
If we open everything up and pretend nothing is wrong and overwhelm the severely limited healthcare systems in this state then everyone who may need a hospital for any reason will be in trouble.
Things are not as simple as you seem to want to believe.
no they are not.
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Not true in my area. I am overwhelmed with patients in my clinic. I am still doing telemed for about 25% of the patients but the rest want to come in. This was true early on that people did not get care because of fear of covid or not wanting to take a hospital bed from someone with covid but now they are overwhelming us.
Other factors are at play. remember that the state fired 2 of the 3 state psychiatrists for the Big Island due to lack of funding the same week the legislature passed the bill funding the gun commission.
The Big Island lost 32 physicians since January, my area is down 8 physicians, they are all leaving. This state is a terrible place for a doctor to work and if we are losing physicians who are going back to the mainland during a pandemic where we have low covid numbers then there is a major problem with healthcare already in this state.
Yes the economy is terrible. But the answer isnt pretend covid does not exist and open everything up. The US is losing 4 times as many Americans a day as we did in WWII. You cant possible be someone who would look at the shift in the war economy in WWII and say "we really need to be stopping all this and open up the bars"
Hawaii does not have the healthcare system to handle covid even at the small numbers. One Honolulu hospital is already down to having 2 free ICU beds. At the current rate 2-3 weeks we will not have enough beds, and more importantly, not enough doctors to help people. Hawaii loses 200 doctors a year that are not replaced. This year is already looking worse for that number.
If we open everything up and pretend nothing is wrong and overwhelm the severely limited healthcare systems in this state then everyone who may need a hospital for any reason will be in trouble.
no they are not.
From a medical point of view what you say makes a lot of sense.
I'm not a doctor, but I suspect the losses will continue because there
is not much of a Medical community here on the BI and they just don't
get paid comparably to doctors working on the mainland.
Full disclosure; my uncle was a San Francisco area Plastic surgeon
and a past president of the local bay area AMA there.
On the Quarantine subject. I recently had to accompany my wife to Honolulu
to get her cataracts fixed(She is covered by Kaiser).
I really got tired of filling out BS forms. This straight from the STASI Former
East German police.
It reminds me of the Ben Franklin quote
"Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary
safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety."
I'll take my chances with liberty.
You are a doctor and know the chances of finding a vaccine for this cv19 is very
remote and you understand there is another virus in the very near
future, just as bad as this one, it too will have no vaccine.
However this state is full of Democrats that
don't have a concept of liberty, so I plan for more "quarantines" and lockdowns.
Thankfully the most of kind of businesses that will fail because of this "Temporary
safety" action are ones I don't use or need.
Doesn't help my neighbors much,
but they elected the government they want
and pay for the government they get.
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Fear of seeking treatment isn't going to keep everyone in every state from seeing a doctor for other ailments, and it isn't going to be as widespread in less densely populated locations, but it is happening ...
A new issue is making it harder for doctors to treat COVID-19 patients
in San Antonio: Patients who don't come in at all.
Health officials say fear of contracting the virus is keeping sick people away from hospitals until it's too late.
https://www.kens5.com/article/news/health/a-new-issue-is-making-it-harder-for-doctors-to-treat-covid-19-patients-in-san-antonio-patients-who-dont-come-in-at-all/273-75cc02da-6b3e-44e5-a350-918eaf03449a
COVID-19 fears possible reason for 'dramatic drop' in cardiac patients seeking care
-- doctors
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/covid-19-fears-possible-reason-for-dramatic-drop-in-cardiac-patients-seeking-care-doctors-1.4897720
TORONTO -- There is mounting concern among doctors and health-care professionals that patients with serious heart problems
are putting off critical hospital visits or treatment because they’re afraid of contracting the coronavirus.
(^^^ And this is where gov't healthcare is provided!)
Coronavirus: In Jacksonville area, unfounded fear prompting public to delay treatment
of other medical conditions
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2020/05/01/coronavirus-in-jacksonville-area-unfounded-fear-prompting-public-to-delay-treatment-of-other-medical-conditions/112278018/
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Fear of seeking treatment isn't going to keep everyone in every state from seeing a doctor for other ailments, and it isn't going to be as widespread in less densely populated locations, but it is happening ...
A new issue is making it harder for doctors to treat COVID-19 patients
in San Antonio: Patients who don't come in at all.
Health officials say fear of contracting the virus is keeping sick people away from hospitals until it's too late.
https://www.kens5.com/article/news/health/a-new-issue-is-making-it-harder-for-doctors-to-treat-covid-19-patients-in-san-antonio-patients-who-dont-come-in-at-all/273-75cc02da-6b3e-44e5-a350-918eaf03449a
COVID-19 fears possible reason for 'dramatic drop' in cardiac patients seeking care
-- doctors
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/covid-19-fears-possible-reason-for-dramatic-drop-in-cardiac-patients-seeking-care-doctors-1.4897720
(^^^ And this is where gov't healthcare is provided!)
Coronavirus: In Jacksonville area, unfounded fear prompting public to delay treatment
of other medical conditions
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2020/05/01/coronavirus-in-jacksonville-area-unfounded-fear-prompting-public-to-delay-treatment-of-other-medical-conditions/112278018/
It must have took you all day to find these articles.
Good work! I am impressed! :thumbsup:
However, three articles representing three places that report the anecdotal beliefs of some medical professionals is not enough valid research to make conclusions for the population, at-large.
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It must have took you all day to find these articles.
Good work! I am impressed! :thumbsup:
However, three articles representing three places that report the anecdotal beliefs of some medical professionals is not enough valid research to make conclusions for the population, at-large.
If by "must have taken you all day" you meant it would have taken YOU all day, I believe it.
Took all of one query on a search engine to return page after page of articles.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=fear+of+covid+prevents+sick+from+seeking+treatment&atb=v231-7rk&ia=web&iai=r1-10&page=2&adx=prdsdc&sexp=%7B%22v7exp%22%3A%22a%22%2C%22sltexp%22%3A%22b%22%2C%22prodexp%22%3A%22b%22%2C%22prdsdexp%22%3A%22c%22%2C%22wiadrk%22%3A%22b%22%7D
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If by "must have taken you all day" you meant it would have taken YOU all day, I believe it.
Took all of one query on a search engine to return page after page of articles.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=fear+of+covid+prevents+sick+from+seeking+treatment&atb=v231-7rk&ia=web&iai=r1-10&page=2&adx=prdsdc&sexp=%7B%22v7exp%22%3A%22a%22%2C%22sltexp%22%3A%22b%22%2C%22prodexp%22%3A%22b%22%2C%22prdsdexp%22%3A%22c%22%2C%22wiadrk%22%3A%22b%22%7D
I stand corrected; I should have known better than to question this forum's fastest Google Fu Master, as Hound correctly identified. :worship:
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the "curve" looks at balancing cases against current medical resources but there is a lot of misinformation and misunderstanding about this "curve" people are generally referring to.
It is not about getting to ZERO infections which is not realistic.
To understand the potential trajectory of the viral infection one will look at the Rt rate and epi curves.
A good point. Infection rate is only part of the complete picture. What I was referring to when I said curve was the overall infection rate and not compared to available medical resources.
Overall though even with our spike our numbers are quite good compared to much of the rest of the country although our spike is looking bad compared to other states in the short run.
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I stand corrected; I should have known better than to question this forum's fastest Google Fu Master, as Hound correctly identified. :worship:
Even a blind dog accidentally finds a morsel on occasion!.