2aHawaii
General Topics => Preparedness and Survival => Topic started by: knowledgeispower on August 03, 2010, 09:55:28 AM
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(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f3/Magnetosphere_rendition.jpg/800px-Magnetosphere_rendition.jpg)
3 August 2010
I read about this earlier yesterday and have been trending it's coverage in the media, and while it is only a C class flare and will probably be a non-event (Solar flares range from A, B, C, M or X, with each class having a peak flux ten times greater than the preceding one), I think this type of event scenario deserves attention in the disaster plans of emergency preparers. Since even an X class can develop and hit the earth in less than 48 hours, the risk is as unpredictable as it is substantial.
"Nasa scientist braced for solar tsunami to hit earth (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7923069/Nasa-scientists-braced-for-solar-tsunami-to-hit-earth.html)"
"Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day 1 (03 August) due to the arrival of the first of two CMEs observed on 01 August (this CME was associated with the long-duration C3/Sf flare at 01/0826Z). Activity is expected to be at active to minor storm levels with a slight chance for major storm on days 2 - 3 (04 - 05 August) due to the arrival of the second slower CME observed on 01 August (associated with a large filament disappearance). " (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html)
"On Sunday, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory detected a complex magnetic eruption on the sun. The NASA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) also spotted a large coronal mass ejection. (CME) The eruption happened around (3:50 am EST), the SDO detected a C3 class solar flare originating from a group of sunspots (called sunspot 1092). The flare itself was not that large, but the filament located about 70,000 miles away erupted at the same time.
A filament is a large, bright feature extending outward from the Sun's surface, often in a loop shape. Filament is anchored to the Sun's surface in the photosphere, and extends outward into the Sun's corona. It is a long magnetic structure rising above the surface of the sun, filled with cool plasma. The flare and filament erupted at the same time, this suggests they are connected by long-range magnetic field lines. Some believe the flare may have accelerated the eruption of the filament. Eventually, a giant magnetic bubble of plasma broke and blasted out into space.
The problem is, the eruption occurred on the side of the sun facing earth which means, the (http://welcometoafreeworld.blogspot.com/2010/08/nasa-says-large-cme-on-sun-headed-for.html)Coronal Mass Ejection is on its way to the planet earth. It's expected arrival is Aug. 3. This is known as a geomagnetic storm, and they have been known to cause electrical power outages and damage communications satellites. They drive shock waves which produce energetic particles that can be damaging to both electronic equipment and astronauts that venture outside the protection of the Earth's magnetic field." (http://welcometoafreeworld.blogspot.com/2010/08/nasa-says-large-cme-on-sun-headed-for.html)
In short, this is a good dry run for everybody to read up on EMP's - be them from solar flares (Carrington Even of 1859 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859) or the lesser storms in 1921 and 1960 (http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/21jan_severespaceweather/) ) or high-altitude nuclear detonations (read about the Starfish Prime test, of which effects were felt in Hawaii! (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime)) , and review your emergency response plans that preclude the copious amounts of electricity we take for granted.
Taken from a good article posted on survivalblog.com entitled "How Long can you tread water?", it really gives a stark, but in all likelihood realistic, analysis of what would happen in a serious EMP event, and should be read and considered by serious emergency preparers.
"EMP is optimized by the detonation of a nuclear weapon at 25 to 250 miles above the Earth's surface. An electromagnetic field radiates down to the earth, creating electrical currents. These instantaneous currents accumulate and migrate on long electrical lines and overheat transformers, large and small. Breakers are of no use due to the speed of the pulse which is 1,000 times faster than lightning. EMP will cover the wide geographic region within line of sight to the nuclear burst. A 40 mile high detonation over Virginia would black out the entire East Coast. A 250 mile high detonation over Kansas would take out most, if not all, of the continental USA. (http://www.survivalblog.com/2010/07/how_long_can_you_tread_water_b.html)
The lead time for obtaining a single replacement of the very large “step-up or step down†type transformer is two to three years from overseas (Total worldwide production of these huge transformers is less than 100 per year); there are about 2,000 in the USA that would need to be replaced plus the millions of small transformers (frequently mounted on utility poles) in the distribution system. There is a huge and perhaps insurmountable problem with almost all electrical power generation plants. They must be shut down gradually according to carefully designed procedures. A sudden shutdown from an EMP or super solar flare would cause the destruction of major components of most power plants and, in a grid down scenario, it would not be possible to repair them. Further,most that survive must have outside power for start up and that outside power won’t exist. " (http://www.survivalblog.com/2010/07/how_long_can_you_tread_water_b.html)
Regards
KNOWLEDGEISPOWER
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...A 250 mile high detonation over Kansas would take out most, if not all, of the continental USA.
One of those instances where it's good to live on an island in the middle of the pacific ocean. ;)
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Wow, that's good to know.
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I hope this doesn't interrupt the Sean Hannity radio show on am 830. :'(
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GEOMAGNETIC STORM--MORE TO COME? The solar storm of August 1st sent two CMEs toward Earth. The first one arrived yesterday, August 3rd, sparking mild but beautiful Northern Lights over Europe and North America (see below). The second CME is still en route. NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of major geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives on August 4th or 5th. (http://www.spaceweather.com/)
Some really cool pictures in this gallery. (http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/gallery_01aug10_page2.htm?PHPSESSID=bkv8p6j2a1e4jf8qru484hifj0)
(http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images2010/04aug10b/Travis-Novitsky1.jpg?PHPSESSID=bkv8p6j2a1e4jf8qru484hifj0)
Too bad our latitude won't lend us the chance for any auroras.
Since this CME will likely be a non-event and this thread will fade off, but I still think talking about the power of the sun and it's effects on earth is important, I've decided to start up a "Solar powered" thread here (http://2ahawaii.com/index.php?topic=588.0). It seems that solar power is one of the many blessings we have living in Hawaii that we should all factor in to our daily lives and emergency preparedness plans.
Regards,
KNOWLEDGEISPOWER
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I'm a survivalblog.com junkie too.
Thanks for posting.