2aHawaii
General Topics => Off Topic => Topic started by: new guy on March 07, 2013, 11:17:58 AM
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http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/07/world/asia/un-north-korea-sanctions/index.html?hpt=hp_t1 (http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/07/world/asia/un-north-korea-sanctions/index.html?hpt=hp_t1)
I know some of the forum members are well-versed in this area of conflict, so I'm hoping they weigh in and provide some thoughts...
And I thought Rodman's visit to North Korea had a calming effect on Jong Un?!? ???
A little man with little man syndrome. He wants to be a big man and play on the same stage as the major countries in this world. Sad, pitiful little man.
North Korean preemptive nuclear strike against the U.S. = SUICIDE. He is not THAT stoopid.
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A little man with little man syndrome. He wants to be a big man and play on the same stage as the major countries in this world. Sad, pitiful little man.
North Korean preemptive nuclear strike against the U.S. = SUICIDE. He is not THAT stoopid.
I agree. But what about enabling some radical nut with a dirty bomb that can't be traced back to him...
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I agree. But what about enabling some radical nut with a dirty bomb that can't be traced back to him...
Not sure what this has to do with the article and the topic? But since u asked if it was that easy to do I believe some well financed and backed group would have done it already, don't you think? Also don't count out our ability to trace the material back to Korea. Just like strains of anthrax I believe we will be able to determine the source of material if it was ever used. Don't remember where I read that though. Anyway, I believe that what you said is possible but much harder to actually accomplish than shown on TV. JMHO
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I agree. But what about enabling some radical nut with a dirty bomb that can't be traced back to him...
we'll know its from North Korea, before he set off the dirty bomb, the radial nut will probably say OPPA GANGNAM STYLE!!!!!! BOOOOOOOMMMMM@#%* MOTHERF#%KERS!!!!
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Not sure what this has to do with the article and the topic? But since u asked if it was that easy to do I believe some well financed and backed group would have done it already, don't you think? Also don't count out our ability to trace the material back to Korea. Just like strains of anthrax I believe we will be able to determine the source of material if it was ever used. Don't remember where I read that though. Anyway, I believe that what you said is possible but much harder to actually accomplish than shown on TV. JMHO
Sorry, didn't actually read the article so my comment might have been coming from left field. You're probably right, I watch too much TV. I hope.
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Sorry, didn't actually read the article so my comment might have been coming from left field. You're probably right, I watch too much TV. I hope.
I think the news makes everyone feel insecure about things without reporting the complete truth. The fact is that uranium weighs between 125 lbs and 130 lbs per cubic foot. So it is quite dense. It is not easy to carry nevertheless carry concealed. I figure you would need at least a cubic foot of material to make a decent mess if blown into thousands if not millions of little pieces. Plus you need to carry it in a lead lined container. Our govt actually looks for dense material like this at our ports and borders. I'm not as worried about a dirty bomb as I am another clever use of some insecure object or chemical. But what worries me more is if Al Quaida can take over Pakistan and get their hands on their nuclear missiles. JMHO
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I think the news makes everyone feel insecure about things without reporting the complete truth. The fact is that uranium weighs between 125 lbs and 130 lbs per cubic foot. So it is quite dense. It is not easy to carry nevertheless carry concealed. I figure you would need at least a cubic foot of material to make a decent mess if blown into thousands if not millions of little pieces. Plus you need to carry it in a lead lined container. Our govt actually looks for dense material like this at our ports and borders. I'm not as worried about a dirty bomb as I am another clever use of some insecure object or chemical. But what worries me more is if Al Quaida can take over Pakistan and get their hands on their nuclear missiles. JMHO
Now I know...
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Rodman's visit was a circus. Makes you wonder about a lost concept of patriotism here in America.
(http://dummr.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/hungry-kim-jong-un-sm.jpg?w=500)
AQ taking over Pakistan, I don't think so. Pakistan receives billions in aid from us to fight this so-called war on terror, they are still in a midst of WTF? when UBL was killed in their country.
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Yeah well we'll see. I don't really think Korea has the military to put up the fight on all bases. Lets just for a second say all our military is busy in the Middle East. You take all the Ted nugents and gun nuts and rednecks this country has, and well be just fine. But if Lil Kim wants to knock on my door ill let my rifle answer it. Besides on I wouldn't count on rodman for anything, he is a circus. He called Jong Un one of the most humble people he ever met. Seriously?
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(http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q214/HJF71/kim-jong-un-observes-north-korean-rocket-test_zpsb79dd6f8.gif)
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I say bring it on. Little man I'm ready for you!
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America
F@ck yeah!
I say bring it on. Little man I'm ready for you!
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North Korea declares war on South Korea.
http://www.news.com.au/world-news/asia/glimpse-of-north-koreas-plan-of-attack-on-us/story-fnh81fz8-1226609165555
http://www.ibtimes.com/north-korea-reportedly-entering-state-war-against-south-korea-kcna-1161543#
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I say bring it on. Little man I'm ready for you!
(http://i1287.photobucket.com/albums/a632/Bunker9939/nkprepares_large_zps28f5e844.jpg)
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I don't really think Korea has the military to put up the fight on all bases. Lets just for a second say all our military is busy in the Middle East.
Silent Service
Submarine Cruise Missile Launch (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwV-JucQktQ#)
Put some warheads on their foreheads.
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For those of you that don't know how Aegis BMD works...a recent Flight Test Mission (FTM) conducted off the coast of Kauai in February 2013. Aegis BMD is just one element of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense System (BMDS) but by far the best and most reliable. USS LAKE ERIE, home ported at Pearl Harbor, is the Aegis BMD test platform for the U.S. Navy and Missile Defense Agency (MDA). In this video, USS LAKE ERIE successfully intercepts a medium-range ballistic missile target launched from PMRF with a Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) Block 1A interceptor. Aegis BMD has come along way since its inception in 1996 and money well spent.
Aegis BMD Stellar Eyes (FTM-20) Flight Mission Success Quicklook (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Um1rKUrXVc#ws)
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I say bring it on. Little man I'm ready for you!
You sound like my wife!
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Silent Service
Submarine Cruise Missile Launch (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FwV-JucQktQ#)
Put some warheads on their foreheads.
Pucker up, A-holes, it's TLAM time. Man battlestations-strike!
(Also of note, and from our sunlight-soakin'-up brothers in the surface Navy, good luck with your nuclear missile strike, Lil' Kim. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RIM-161_Standard_Missile_3))
Edit to add: Looks like Bunker was onto the same thing as I was, and beat me to it.
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I was waiting for someone else to notice before I posted. Did anyone notice the disappearance of the floating golf ball at the same time the first threat came down? Coincidence? :popcorn:
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Yes I noticed that too.
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I was waiting for someone else to notice before I posted. Did anyone notice the disappearance of the floating golf ball at the same time the first threat came down? Coincidence? :popcorn:
Sea-based X-band Radar (SBX-1): "The U.S. military is sending its most advanced radar system to the Pacific region ahead of North Korea's expected launch of a long-range missile in mid-April, according to a senior U.S. Navy official."
http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/29/navy-ships-out-radar-system-ahead-of-north-korea-launch/ (http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/29/navy-ships-out-radar-system-ahead-of-north-korea-launch/)
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Sea-based X-band Radar (SBX-1): "The U.S. military is sending its most advanced radar system to the Pacific region ahead of North Korea's expected launch of a long-range missile in mid-April, according to a senior U.S. Navy official."
http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/29/navy-ships-out-radar-system-ahead-of-north-korea-launch/ (http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/29/navy-ships-out-radar-system-ahead-of-north-korea-launch/)
Thanks for the article. So we still don't know if the shipped it out due to the threat or due to the expected missile launch? As the article said, they won't give us an answer.
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Thanks for the article. So we still don't know if the shipped it out due to the threat or due to the expected missile launch? As the article said, they won't give us an answer.
I would say irregardless of SBX deployment schedule, she will be in the designated region that they need to be for any potential DPRK threat.
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Bruddah Bunker, you seem to be pretty akamai about this sort of thing, so I hope you don't mind if I send some questions your way.
1. Is the Aegis BMD system a Mid-Phase or Terminal Phase interception system?
2. Many media reports indicate that N. Korea is incapable of carrying out strikes against Guam, Hawaii, and the West Coast of the U.S. Many of these reports are based upon the media's understanding of N. Korea's land-based missile launch capabilities. Contrary to these media reports, I understand that PacCom has stated that N. Korea currently possess land-based missile systems (2-stage or 3-stage configured Taepo-Dong 2) capable of delivering low-yield nuclear payloads to Alaska, Hawaii, and the West Coast of the continental U.S. Additionally, doesn't N. Korea possess SLBM capabilities?
3. If N. Korea possesses missile systems capable of reaching Alaska, Hawaii, and the West Coast of the continental U.S., is the Aegis BMD system capable of defeating such missile systems?
4. If the Aegis BMD successfully intercepts a missile carrying a nuclear warhead, would the interception cause the warhead to detonate?
5. N. Korea wouldn't actually need to detonate a nuclear warhead directly above Honolulu to achieve its objective of bringing harm to U.S. and the State of Hawaii, correct? Wouldn't the detonation of a nuclear warhead in the atmosphere, still hundreds of miles away from Honolulu, have crippling effects on the entire State of Hawaii (and any nearby orbiting satellites), a la Operation Starfish Prime?
Not that I think N. Korea will ever launch a missile at Hawaii, but it just seems to me that, with all the increasing rhetoric, it is becoming increasingly difficult for KJU to backdown from his position and de-escalate the situation.
And with tensions already pretty high, just one mistake or misunderstanding from either side could potentially be the spark that ignites the kindling.
Happy Monday, bruddahs! :shaka:
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What I do know is that a kinetic strike of an intercept missle would not result in a detonation. Maybe just a low yeild of contamination. If a mid atmospheric detonation were to occur you we would probably experience EMP within line of site of the detonation. I don't think NK has the technology.
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Your questions appear to be specific to a defense of Hawaii scenario and a midcourse BMD engagement, so I will focus on that but touch very briefly on other aspects of the U.S. BMDS for completeness, but keep in mind the U.S. BMDS has capabilities that address threats in all phrases of the ballistic missile (BM) flight, from launch to impact. Also, keep in mind our allied partners augment our ability in the COMSEVENTHFLT AOR with significant BMD capability. I included a few pics to help illustrate the points.
IMO Hawaii would be best defended from a BM attack by local offshore Aegis ships working in conjunction with Aegis Ashore (installation ongoing) and a THAAD battery. Defense of forward bases at Guam (~3,500 km from NK) and Okinawa (~1,500 km from NK) are also key targets, as well as Alaska. Also, keep in mind Soul is ~40 km south of the DMZ and within easy striking range of all the ballistic missiles, which is a more plausible scenario to be concerned with because any potential aggression by DPRK on South Korea or Japan will likely drag the U.S. into a conflict with DPRK.
(http://i1287.photobucket.com/albums/a632/Bunker9939/missile-phases2_zpscac53ee5.jpg)
BMD intercept can be accomplished in any of the three phases of flight of the target missile: boost phase, midcourse phase (subdivided into ascent and decent phases), and terminal phase.
1. Is the Aegis BMD system a Mid-Phase or Terminal Phase interception system? Aegis BMD typically intercepts in the Midcourse Ascent Phrase, thereby classifying it as a Midcourse-Phase System.
2. Many media reports indicate that N. Korea is incapable of carrying out strikes against Guam, Hawaii, and the West Coast of the U.S. Many of these reports are based upon the media's understanding of N. Korea's land-based missile launch capabilities. Contrary to these media reports, I understand that PacCom has stated that N. Korea currently possess land-based missile systems (2-stage or 3-stage configured Taepo-Dong 2) capable of delivering low-yield nuclear payloads to Alaska, Hawaii, and the West Coast of the continental U.S. Additionally, doesn't N. Korea possess SLBM capabilities? Don’t want to discuss this question but Pyongyang is ~7400 km or ~4022 nm from Honolulu, which would require an ICBM delivery system capable of handling a nuclear payload (see graph below).
(http://i1287.photobucket.com/albums/a632/Bunker9939/4082a1bf-9c21-418b-a223-48f609591cac_zps7bc520a2.jpg)
3. If N. Korea possesses missile systems capable of reaching Alaska, Hawaii, and the West Coast of the continental U.S., is the Aegis BMD system capable of defeating such missile systems? Theoretically yes IMO, during the midcourse phase. Depending on the attacking rocket propellant (solid or liquid), the midcourse phase begins after the rocket (s) finish firing (~180-240 sec) and the missile is on a ballistic trajectory toward its target. During the early part of the midcourse stage, the missile is still ascending toward its apogee, while during the latter part it is descending toward Earth. During this stage the missile’s warhead(s), as well as any decoys, separate from the delivery platform. This phase takes place in space (exoatmospheric > 100 km).
Midcourse defense adapts in real time to defend whatever is threatened and still has sufficient engagement opportunities to deal with threats and correct any potential system malfunctions or operator issues. However, it must also contend with exoamospheric countermeasures, such as decoys and possibly other countermeasures that may include simultaneous launches and/or attacks on key elements of our defense, particularly sensors.
4. If the Aegis BMD successfully intercepts a missile carrying a nuclear warhead, would the interception cause the warhead to detonate? Depends but key word you mentioned is Aegis BMD, so assumption is the intercept occurs during Midcourse Ascent Phrase, in which case intercept occurs in space (exoatmospheric) at distances greater than 100 km. IMO intercept must take place after burnout of the threat booster and also after it reaches a velocity that would pose no threat to protected areas. Since midcourse-phase intercept is likely to destroy a nuclear warhead, the debris would be fragments of the attacking rocket and not intact (unarmed nuclear weapon).
5. N. Korea wouldn't actually need to detonate a nuclear warhead directly above Honolulu to achieve its objective of bringing harm to U.S. and the State of Hawaii, correct? Wouldn't the detonation of a nuclear warhead in the atmosphere, still hundreds of miles away from Honolulu, have crippling effects on the entire State of Hawaii (and any nearby orbiting satellites), a la Operation Starfish Prime? IMO the warhead would have to detonate in the Terminal Phase (endoatmospheric) to produce significant infrastructure damage or inflict human causalities (injury or loss of human life). This would mean that any and all potential boost or midcourse defense opportunities were unsuccessful.
Lastly, a deliberate attack, jamming, or destruction of our satellites is always a concern that our operational commanders take into consideration. It’s advantageous for our adversaries to potentially interfere, spook, degrade or destroy our command and control infrastructure. I don’t want to discuss this in detail but there are many countermeasures, which can be used to reduce or eliminate threats and enhance satellite survivability.
Highly unlikely scenario presented considering our capabilities but we’ll play it out. The altitude at which the transition from midcourse to terminal defense occurs is somewhat ambiguous, with light decoys being slowed appreciably relative to reentry vehicles (RV) at altitudes between 70-100 km and appreciable aerodynamic forces on the RV occurring at altitudes below ~40 km. Intercept would occur relatively late in flight, and in my view, the RV would already have sufficient velocity to continue on a trajectory that could extend into the original target area, or at least into friendly territory, and produce a nuclear detonation on impact.
IMO a kinetic-kill boost-phase interceptor could be deployed to impact the RV containing the warhead, but ensuring such impact would be challenging at best, because of uncertainties regarding the position of the RV relative to the hot rocket exhaust, which is guiding the interceptor. Also, a properly aimed laser kill mechanism would probably not be powerful enough to destroy a warhead carried on an RV hardened to survive reentry. Neither of these measures to mitigate shortfall are likely to be fully effective, but the consequences of a nuclear detonation on land and/or in the Terminal Phrase would be highly unlikely and any potential damage would be mitigated/minimized by other strategic assets. Basically if we end up in this highly unlikely situation, we have a serious problem.
NOTE: All technical information contained has been publicly released and is available in the public domain.
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:thumbsup:
Thank you, bruddah Bunker, for the time and effort you put into providing such a detailed response... it is much appreciated!! :shaka:
I have to admit that some of the info went over my head, but I'll be re-reading your post a couple of times to try to digest everything.
Sorry, I should have been a bit clearer with one of my questions; I'll rephrase here by asking:
If there is an exoatmospheric detontation of a nuclear warhead (still several hundreds of miles away from Honolulu), wouldn't this generate an EMP that would effectively "shut down" much, if not all, of the State of Hawaii, much like the effects seen during Operation Starfish Prime?
It seems that all branches of the armed forces are becoming increasingly reliant upon electronic devices, and if an EMP were to disrupt electronics, how effectively would we, as individual family units, as a City, as a State, and as a Nation be able to respond?
Can you imagine the pandemonium and bedlam that would occur if the entire State of Hawaii went completely powerless??
I remember what happened during the Hilo earthquake.... that was no fun!
I have also read (crazy?) stories about low-orbit satellites, belonging to "unfriendlies," that already have nuclear devices held within them, ready for detonation over strategic locations, for the sole purpose of accomplishing exactly what I stated, above.
Objective would not so much be focusing on Hawaii, but moreso focusing on key locations over the central portion of continental US.
Of course, this may only be me donning my :tinfoil:
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article in this morning's star-ad that the golf ball is out at sea on guard
I was waiting for someone else to notice before I posted. Did anyone notice the disappearance of the floating golf ball at the same time the first threat came down? Coincidence? :popcorn:
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If there is an exoatmospheric detontation of a nuclear warhead (still several hundreds of miles away from Honolulu), wouldn't this generate an EMP that would effectively "shut down" much, if not all, of the State of Hawaii, much like the effects seen during Operation Starfish Prime? IMO a nuclear detonation at high altitudes (~40–400 km) would likely not inflict human causalities from the explosion and heat but would generate an EMP that would likely cause significant damage to critical infrastructure, such as electric power grid, electronic control systems (water, oil, gas), distribution systems, communications, transportation, financial institutions, etc. There are many factors in the equation to consider, such as the altitude of detonation, weapon yield and design, latitude and magnitude of the local geomagnetic field, electromagnetic shielding of assets, etc.
Keep in mind there are three subcomponents (E1, E2, E3) that comprise EMP and in order to fully understand the effects, it’s important to comprehend the associated pulses and specifications. Also, in addition to High altitude EMP (HEMP), there is Super-EMP and System Generated EMP (SGEMP), so it’s important to know which type (s) of threat we are dealing with.
Since this topic is about the North Korean threat, IMO a Super-EMP attack is more probable and would likely cause significant damage to key infrastructure. The recent nuclear tests conducted by North Korea are indicative of a Super-EMP weapon. A Super-EMP warhead is a low-grade weapon that does not create a big explosion but does generate the EMP effect. The missile does not have to be accurate because the EMP field is large and has a devastating impact to critical infrastructure. Also, the warhead does no require an RV because the detonation occurs above the atmosphere at high-altitudes.
It seems that all branches of the armed forces are becoming increasingly reliant upon electronic devices, and if an EMP were to disrupt electronics, how effectively would we, as individual family units, as a City, as a State, and as a Nation be able to respond? Can’t speak for the civilian population and local government but DoD has multiple layers of communications but certainly there would be an impact to command and control. However, this is nothing new to the military and communication disruption or destruction of primary communications is routinely incorporated into training and exercises. The military abides by strict EMP standards to include electromagnetic shielding, as well as certification processes, so the impact will be significantly different than the civilian infrastructure. This is especially true for critical DoD C4I nodes.
There is a ton of unclassified info available on the topic if you’re interested in a deep dive into the subject, which will give you a pretty good basic understanding of the subject. I personally don’t believe a scenario of North Korea nuking Hawaii or any part of the U.S. would ever play out but hypothetically, it would fall nicely in the 2a “doomsday thread”, as far as being prepared for a SHTF scenario.
Can you imagine the pandemonium and bedlam that would occur if the entire State of Hawaii went completely powerless?? It’s bad enough when Hawaii loses power during a hurricane or short power outages. I could imagine pandemonium just as you say.
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More on the subject...."North Korea Relocates Long-Range Missile in Latest Rhetorical Threat"
http://abcnews.go.com/International/north-korea-relocates-long-range-missile-latest-rhetorical/story?id=18877426#.UV2Ke6sjpcM (http://abcnews.go.com/International/north-korea-relocates-long-range-missile-latest-rhetorical/story?id=18877426#.UV2Ke6sjpcM)
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As always, thank you, bruddah Bunker!! I'll buy the first two rounds at the Forum Pau Hana if it ever gets off the ground!! :shaka:
Found this to be kind of funny, too.
http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/04/world/asia/north-korea-hacking/ (http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/04/world/asia/north-korea-hacking/)
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http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/04/04/us-working-diplomatic-channels-to-resolve-n-korea-standoff-amid-shows-strength/ (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/04/04/us-working-diplomatic-channels-to-resolve-n-korea-standoff-amid-shows-strength/)
Yay!!
Let's reward this fucking guy's irresponsible and belligerent behavior on the world stage by ramping up military presence in the area, then backing down and showering his already destitute country with millions of dollars in foreign aid money, which he will promptly allocate to further building his military and developing his nuclear ambitions.
Maybe a stupid question, but does the US Foreign Policy playbook include, "Ignore," as a viable option?
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http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/04/04/us-working-diplomatic-channels-to-resolve-n-korea-standoff-amid-shows-strength/ (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/04/04/us-working-diplomatic-channels-to-resolve-n-korea-standoff-amid-shows-strength/)
Yay!!
Let's reward this fucking guy's irresponsible and belligerent behavior on the world stage by ramping up military presence in the area, then backing down and showering his already destitute country with millions of dollars in foreign aid money, which he will promptly allocate to further building his military and developing his nuclear ambitions.
Maybe a stupid question, but does the US Foreign Policy playbook include, "Ignore," as a viable option?
This is what happens when you elect Democrats.