It's come up before, and we brushed it in the wadcutter thread.  What's enough gun/ammo for SD?  Here's my philosophy:

1.  I will never need a gun.
2.  If I ever need a gun, simply having one will be enough.
3.  If having one isn't enough, simply pulling the trigger will be.
4.  If simply pulling the trigger isn't enough, putting a hole in a bad guy will be.
5.  Five shots is two more than I will ever need.
6.  If I've been wrong five times, I may actually be in trouble.

The breakdown:
1.  Seriously, the odds are stacked waaaay in my favor that I'll live a long life without ever needing a gun to respond to a violent crime.  I'm not a soldier, vigilante, or LEO.  I don't hang out in dangerous neighborhoods.  I don't indulge in risky hobbies or occupations.  It is not my job, pastime, or desire to seek out trouble.
2.  If I am unlucky enough to need a gun, it will be due to a crime of opportunity, like a mugging or home invasion.  Those guys aren't looking for a fight, or to spend time.  Speed is their friend, and a victim who is willing to fight is not conducive to a quick crime.
3.  Again, in crimes of opportunity, or even a premeditated burglary, the idea is to not get caught.  When guns start going "bang," neighbors or passers-by start calling 911. 
4.  No matter how stupid a criminal is, or how willing to face authorities by dicking around with an uncooperative victim, getting shot is going to be a wakeup call.  I mean, holy shit!  You've been fucking SHOT!  Burns like hellfire!  Time to go!
5.  The average gunfight is three shots, and is over in five seconds. 
6.  Yep, it could happen.  Care to run the odds?  I think that it's right up there with having a fire extinguisher but not an asbestos suit, trusting seatbelts and airbags but not installing a roll cage or wearing a helmet, or eating organic produce.  There's definitely a chance that things could go wronger than I'm prepared for.  I just don't think it's much of a chance.

.

What if there is more than one determined bad guy?  People jacked up on ice/rocks/ (insert illicit drug here) are not too brilliant.  They might not even know they've been hit.  They may be out of their mind. They may decide they can win.  It has happened.  I don't believe I go overboard on my defensive preps, and like you, I have no need or desire for trouble.  I will most likely never have to use my firearms in protection of life, however, if needed I want the most advantage as possible to neutralize the threat, without too much over penetration or collateral damage.

If there are any number of determined bad guys, even just one, I'm in trouble.  But there's no reason to think I'll ever encounter a determined bad guy.  Like I said, my lifestyle and habits aren't likely to encourage that.  If I get someone too drugged out to know they've been hit, but somehow still able to present a threat?  Again, I'm in trouble.  Sure, these things happen.  Lots of things happen.  People win lotteries.  Airplanes fall out of the sky.  These things happen about often enough to grab a headline, or spawn a cautionary tale on a gun forum, but not often enough to be an influencing factor in my day-to-day life. 

Hi Tom_G,

I like your analogy about the fire extinguisher vs asbestos suit but I'm wondering about the assumptions made in the original post.   Aren't you assuming that criminals are wired like you and are rational thinking people?  I'm sure those victims were not expecting to be in trouble either.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/12692770/shocking-13-year-old-girl-snatched-off-grandmas-porch-and-raped

http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/breaking/20140923_Man_19_charged_with_rape_after_arrest_at_UH_dorm.html?id=276825201

http://www.hawaiireporter.com/honolulu-man-allegedly-rapes-13-year-old-girl-while-being-closely-monitored-in-probation-program-for-a-previous-rape-conviction

I'm trying to find that one about the grandma that got raped in her home but can't seem to find it on Google.

Tom, I think that's a very rational way to look at it. Criminals will go after the low hanging fruit generally speaking.

Tom, I think that's a very rational way to look at it. Criminals will go after the low hanging fruit generally speaking.

If they go after low hanging fruit, is that considered a hate crime?

 

If they go after low hanging fruit, is that considered a hate crime?

 

I'm sure the low hanging fruit thinks so!

Hi Tom_G,

I like your analogy about the fire extinguisher vs asbestos suit but I'm wondering about the assumptions made in the original post.   Aren't you assuming that criminals are wired like you and are rational thinking people?  I'm sure those victims were not expecting to be in trouble either.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/12692770/shocking-13-year-old-girl-snatched-off-grandmas-porch-and-raped

http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/breaking/20140923_Man_19_charged_with_rape_after_arrest_at_UH_dorm.html?id=276825201

http://www.hawaiireporter.com/honolulu-man-allegedly-rapes-13-year-old-girl-while-being-closely-monitored-in-probation-program-for-a-previous-rape-conviction

I'm trying to find that one about the grandma that got raped in her home but can't seem to find it on Google.

Of course you can find instances that prove me wrong.  They happen, sure.  I've acknowledged that.  My premise is that they happen rarely enough that I don't consider that possibility a credible threat.  I routinely indulge in activities that are FAR more likely to get me killed, such as flying and driving, and even in those areas I take only reasonable precautions.  I don't prepare and train for the day my compact car gets pinned between two cement mixers while plummeting over a cliff and into a lava flow.  My truck has seatbelts and airbags, and I exercise situational awareness while driving.  On my motorcycle, I wear safety gear, and exercise situational paranoia.  Reasonable precautions. 

I can respect you view Tom.  I have a slightly different view because of various life experiences, and me not wanting to be unprepared in an event.  I am not overly prepared, just slightly.... "exercise situational paranoia"  I think everyone needs to tailor what the need to where they are at.

Jl I'm not following the relevancy of your links to Tom's post.

Seems like they support his theory. If the girls had guns(1)...fired them(2)....hit the bad guy(3)....crime averted.

I don't think they would've kept coming.

Can anyone find articles where a perp was shot by a civilian and kept on coming ? ( Exceptions are the FBI shooting in Miami and Michael Brown and other law enforcement shootings against determined perps )

There's a ton of videos shown on Tru TV where shop owner pulls gun and shoots ( not necessarily hitting anything ) and perps run like hell.
Although sometimes they do return fire while on the run.

Right now, Tom G's thinking is my thinking.
But I'm interested in other supported views which may change my thinking.

I think the level of comfort is going to be individually subjective for any level of SD preparedness.

Just like life insurance, we all look at the cost versus our needs or wants.  I might be okay with just having enough insurance to pay off debts and final expenses so as to not burden my family.  Tom, on the other hand, might want enough to make sure his wife and kids can live comfortably, pay off the mortgage completely, and send the kids through college ... all the things he hopes to be around to do himself.

Need will be based on how much piece of mind you get from the "insurance" you choose for SD.  Some people won't ever feel comfortable because they either can't afford the level of protection they wish for, or there just isn't any way to fully guard against all bad situations. 

Plan for the worst, but hope for the best.

Very, very subjective, and totally personal.

I'm trying to follow but not sure I agree with Tom_G's thinking.

1.  I will never need a gun.

Based on statistics, the probability that one will get in a life threatening confrontation with a criminal is very low.  However, at the same time, it never hurts to be prepared.  The chances that one will need a fire extinguisher is also low.  But it would be silly not to have one at home because chances are low that one will not need it on a daily basis.

2.  If I ever need a gun, simply having one will be enough.

If I ever am in a situation where I need a gun but have it locked at home, having 1 or 1000 guns will not be enough.

3.  If having one isn't enough, simply pulling the trigger will be.

I don't get this one.  Firing a warning shot sounds like a bad idea.

4.  If simply pulling the trigger isn't enough, putting a hole in a bad guy will be.

If one isn't high on drugs, one hole may be enough. 

5.  Five shots is two more than I will ever need.

Better not miss a moving target or one behind cover.

6.  If I've been wrong five times, I may actually be in trouble.

Wouldn't one already be in trouble if one had to pull out a gun?  I don't quite follow Tom_G's line of thinking as listed out above.

1.  Seriously, the odds are stacked waaaay in my favor that I'll live a long life without ever needing a gun to respond to a violent crime.  I'm not a soldier, vigilante, or LEO.  I don't hang out in dangerous neighborhoods.  I don't indulge in risky hobbies or occupations.  It is not my job, pastime, or desire to seek out trouble.

This was what I was addressing in my previous post.  I don't think most of the victims expect to get mugged or attacked in their homes either but it happens.

2.  If I am unlucky enough to need a gun, it will be due to a crime of opportunity, like a mugging or home invasion.  Those guys aren't looking for a fight, or to spend time.  Speed is their friend, and a victim who is willing to fight is not conducive to a quick crime.

It depends what the criminal is wanting to do.  If they are there to behead you, or rob you, or rape you, they might not care if you see them or not.  I think this is the biggest wrong assumption that a criminal will flee whenever you run into them. 

3.  Again, in crimes of opportunity, or even a premeditated burglary, the idea is to not get caught.  When guns start going "bang," neighbors or passers-by start calling 911.

Same comment as above.

4.  No matter how stupid a criminal is, or how willing to face authorities by dicking around with an uncooperative victim, getting shot is going to be a wakeup call.  I mean, holy shit!  You've been fucking SHOT!  Burns like hellfire!  Time to go!

Let's hope so.

5.  The average gunfight is three shots, and is over in five seconds.

Possibly correct.  I've never been in one and hope never to be in one.

6.  Yep, it could happen.  Care to run the odds?  I think that it's right up there with having a fire extinguisher but not an asbestos suit, trusting seatbelts and airbags but not installing a roll cage or wearing a helmet, or eating organic produce.  There's definitely a chance that things could go wronger than I'm prepared for.  I just don't think it's much of a chance.

Considering all things are normal, I would say so.  But if you were living in Ferguson during a riot or Louisiana after Katrina, that may not be the case.

I do agree that statically chances may be slim, but would you give that recommendation to those that have a wife?  Children?  Family living with?  Personally, I don't like playing "what's the chance that will happen" and rather not take the risk.  Same concept applies for any scenario where prepping is involved.  I call it peace of mind.


http://honolulupd.org/information/index.php?page=crimemapping

If you haven't seen this, it may be eye opening.  Although I do not no how accurate it is due to the fact that I know a police report was made due to a home burglary in my neighborhood, yet it does not show up on the crimemap.

If I ever am in a situation where I need a gun but have it locked at home, having 1 or 1000 guns will not be enough.

Makes the Classic 2A quotes !

Good points MauiD, Jl and Ku. ( Ku long time no hear  )

Woo hoo!  Mahalos!

I don't think he outlined it to have each statement be taken stand-alone. It's a linear progression by probability with the total of all points framing his view.

That's the way I read it anyway.

I'm trying to follow but not sure I agree with Tom_G's thinking.

Wow... am I really that unclear?  Let me try again. JI808.

Based on statistics, the probability that one will get in a life threatening confrontation with a criminal is very low.  However, at the same time, it never hurts to be prepared.  The chances that one will need a fire extinguisher is also low.  But it would be silly not to have one at home because chances are low that one will not need it on a daily basis.

1.  I will never need a gun. 
This doesn't in any way mean that I would not carry a gun.  It means that, as I lay on my deathbed and am walking into the light, my last though could well be "Well, damn, I carried that gun all my days for nothing!" 

If I ever am in a situation where I need a gun but have it locked at home, having 1 or 1000 guns will not be enough.

Having a gun means having a gun.  It most emphatically does not mean not having a gun. 

I don't get this one.  Firing a warning shot sounds like a bad idea.

Who said anything about firing a warning shot?  If I'm in a self defense situation where I need a gun, and I'm pulling the trigger, of course I'm trying to hit the bad guy! 

If one isn't high on drugs, one hole may be enough. 

Yep.  Already acknowledged and addressed.

Better not miss a moving target or one behind cover.

So what if I do?  Again, a fucking GUN FIGHT has erupted!  People are going to take notice.  Bad guys are going to run away! 

Wouldn't one already be in trouble if one had to pull out a gun?  I don't quite follow Tom_G's line of thinking as listed out above.

Trouble, in this case, means "I'm now in more trouble that I was actually prepared to handle.  Looks like my philosophy may have been flawed.  D'oh!"

This was what I was addressing in my previous post.  I don't think most of the victims expect to get mugged or attacked in their homes either but it happens.

Which is why I have developed a philosophy for self defense in the first place.

It depends what the criminal is wanting to do.  If they are there to behead you, or rob you, or rape you, they might not care if you see them or not.  I think this is the biggest wrong assumption that a criminal will flee whenever you run into them. 

Feel free to think that.  I'm not operating on opinion here, as my philosophy obviously flies in the face of prevalent internet reason.  I'm operating on statistics.  Criminals, particularly those engaged in crimes of opportunity, do run away.  The vast majority run away at the first sign of trouble.

Let's hope so.

I'll take that as an acknowledgement.

Possibly correct.  I've never been in one and hope never to be in one.

And you know what?  You never will be!  Neither will I!  Which is why (once Baker gets settled) I will feel perfectly secure with my choice of SD sidearm, despite the pooh-poohing of the Internet.

Considering all things are normal, I would say so.  But if you were living in Ferguson during a riot or Louisiana after Katrina, that may not be the case.

Well, if I'm out and about, it's because things are normal.  If I'm living in a post-apocalyptic situation where looting and malfeasance are commonplace, or if there are riots going on in my city, that changes the nature of the game.  But for those rare days when the sky hasn't fallen, I'm pretty comfortable with my philosophy.




Does that clarify my position?  Is it a little easier to follow my thinking now?  It all seems quite clear inside my own skull, but that's really no yardstick.

I do agree that statically chances may be slim, but would you give that recommendation to those that have a wife?  Children?  Family living with? 

Where have I made a recommendation?  But, were I to discuss selection of self defense firearms with my wife (which I have), I absolutely would hold this philosophy.  If I had children to protect, same answer. 

Yes, thank you Tom_G. 

I too believe and hope that most folks here are sensible enough to not put ourselves in dangerous situations, to be situationally aware enough to get ourselves and our loved ones out when we see a bad situation arising, and to be level headed enough to diffuse an escalating situation before it turns into something bad.

That would be the best to get to our deathbed and avoiding any calamitous situation for ourselves and our loved ones.

But if trouble comes looking, hopefully their sense of danger will kick in and suggest to them to move on to an easier target.