About a week ago, the IMF has officially recognized that the global economy is indeed in a recession.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/28/imf-declares-global-recession-and-doubles-the-size-if-its-financial-war-chest

Please share your thoughts on whether global economic recovery is possible as well as what needs to done for that to happen or is a global depression inevitable and when.

IMF sends in Tom Cruise to stop the communist's plot to destroy global economy !   

IMF sends in Tom Cruise to stop the communist's plot to destroy global economy !   

...
If he decides to accept the mission.
He may say "screw this crap" and let the tape burn.

As of 04/05/2020

Reported Unemployment in March:  701,100 (https://slate.com/business/2020/04/department-labor-march-jobs-report-unemployment.html)

Unemployment Jobless Claims: 10,000,000 (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/bullard-economy-not-in-free-fall-despite-32percent-unemployment-estimate.html)

Unemployment Rate Projections: 32% (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/bullard-economy-not-in-free-fall-despite-32percent-unemployment-estimate.html)

In my opinion, the numbers and projections are/will be probably worse.

As of 04/17/2020

Hawaii Unemployment Rate: 37%*  (https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/04/17/breaking-news/37-of-hawaiis-labor-force-files-unemployment-claims/)

* This figure does not take into consideration the many thousands in Hawaii who have been working for cash, who have since lost their source of income due to Covid-19.  If that group is included, the real unemployment rate could be as high as 50%.


My contacts in the state have shared that the unemployment insurance fund is rapidly loosing funds and might go dry way before the beginning of the third quarter of this year.  With Governor Ige already proposing 20% pay cuts for state worker for the next 2 years, the fact that federal small business loans have already run out from the latest stimulus bill passed roughly two weeks ago, and the fact that Hawaii will not generate much tourist revenue this coming Summer and the rest of the year for that matter, an economic depression is starting to look like a reality as soon as this coming third quarter.


Stay tuned.

As of 04/17/2020

Hawaii Unemployment Rate: 37%*  (https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/04/17/breaking-news/37-of-hawaiis-labor-force-files-unemployment-claims/)

* This figure does not take into consideration the many thousands in Hawaii who have been working for cash, who have since lost their source of income due to Covid-19.  If that group is included, the real unemployment rate could be as high as 50%.


My contacts in the state have shared that the unemployment insurance fund is rapidly loosing funds and might go dry way before the beginning of the third quarter of this year.  With Governor Ige already proposing 20% pay cuts for state worker for the next 2 years, the fact that federal small business loans have already run out from the latest stimulus bill passed roughly two weeks ago, and the fact that Hawaii will not generate much tourist revenue this coming Summer and the rest of the year for that matter, an economic depression is starting to look like a reality as soon as this coming third quarter.


Stay tuned.

“The sky is falling, the sky is falling” 

“The sky is falling, the sky is falling” 

This is exactly how I feel when I see this sort of post. In some ways I consider this type of post trolling. But that is my opinion only. At the very least when only one side is presented and it is the sensationalism side of nothing but doom and gloom it smacks of trying to get someone’s emotions riled. In my opinion if Kuleana wanted to truly discuss this topic in its entirety he would have researched this subject a lot more and presented facts from both sides, not just one side, and not present projections. But the post is what it is.

First I want to go on record as saying unlike some, I cannot and will not try and project what the future is going to be. They don’t know and neither do I. I also want to state that in order for the world to be in a global depression, then the US with the worlds largest economy has to also be in a depression. And at this point, we are far from a depression. We are not officially in a recession yet tho it is a forgone conclusion when the quarter ends we will be. The definition of a recession precludes us from officially saying so until we have 2 quarters (or 6 months) in a row if my memory serves me correctly. I also want to go on record as saying that it could very well happen that we go into a depression. There is just not enough facts and statistics yet for the period of time required to be able to state we are even close to a depression yet. I think it serves little purpose to try and sensationalize what is happening in other economies when our economy is not close, yet.

With all this said, we actually did learn from the Great Depression. We put in place numerous monetary and fiscal policies to try and prevent a depression from happening again here in the US. We have numerous Stabilization policies that will keep us stable even if we do enter a depression. The FED is in place to help stabilize interest rates.  Our banks are much better prepared with cash and liquidity in case there are a lot of mortgage defaults. Even more so than the real estate bust of 2008. We have UI for those who lose their jobs to help them pay their mortgages for up to a year. We have FDIC insured bank accounts so people don’t lose their funds if a bank goes under. There is a lot more, one can Google it if they care to.

The bottom line is there is all sorts of sensational headlines regarding this topic. Most of them are there to sell content. If you read them closely, most “Project” or predict what could be. And try to spread doom and gloom. I’m not saying they can’t come true sometime in the future. Just that 2 months ago our future was bright and upbeat. So take everything you read here with a grain of salt until we have more data over a considerable time period.

This is exactly how I feel when I see this sort of post. In some ways I consider this type of post trolling. But that is my opinion only. At the very least when only one side is presented and it is the sensationalism side of nothing but doom and gloom it smacks of trying to get someone’s emotions riled. In my opinion if Kuleana wanted to truly discuss this topic in its entirety he would have researched this subject a lot more and presented facts from both sides, not just one side, and not present projections. But the post is what it is.

First I want to go on record as saying unlike some, I cannot and will not try and project what the future is going to be. They don’t know and neither do I. I also want to state that in order for the world to be in a global depression, then the US with the worlds largest economy has to also be in a depression. And at this point, we are far from a depression. We are not officially in a recession yet tho it is a forgone conclusion when the quarter ends we will be. The definition of a recession precludes us from officially saying so until we have 2 quarters (or 6 months) in a row if my memory serves me correctly. I also want to go on record as saying that it could very well happen that we go into a depression. There is just not enough facts and statistics yet for the period of time required to be able to state we are even close to a depression yet. I think it serves little purpose to try and sensationalize what is happening in other economies when our economy is not close, yet.

With all this said, we actually did learn from the Great Depression. We put in place numerous monetary and fiscal policies to try and prevent a depression from happening again here in the US. We have numerous Stabilization policies that will keep us stable even if we do enter a depression. The FED is in place to help stabilize interest rates.  Our banks are much better prepared with cash and liquidity in case there are a lot of mortgage defaults. Even more so than the real estate bust of 2008. We have UI for those who lose their jobs to help them pay their mortgages for up to a year. We have FDIC insured bank accounts so people don’t lose their funds if a bank goes under. There is a lot more, one can Google it if they care to.

The bottom line is there is all sorts of sensational headlines regarding this topic. Most of them are there to sell content. If you read them closely, most “Project” or predict what could be. And try to spread doom and gloom. I’m not saying they can’t come true sometime in the future. Just that 2 months ago our future was bright and upbeat. So take everything you read here with a grain of salt until we have more data over a considerable time period.

Inspector, you and I think a lot alike perhaps because of age, we grew up in the same area,
but I blame it all on the similar water we drank.
In all probability there will not be a Depression in sense of the world Depression of the 1930's
as you say there have been many changes to our money system to prevent that.
However, something new has developed.  I have warned about this for years.
Simply put,  people are a pain in the ass. A pain to employ, work with, and in many cases
to be with in public places.
So for employment there has been an unstoppable move to automate. This will continue.
People like me have done this work and it will only grow, improve, and will become as normal as
breathing.  Problem is what do you do with all the people that no longer have jobs?
Most people are clever, but intellectually dumb as posts. Re-train them all to Code? NOT!
I'm fluent in about 20 or so computer languages. I know how to design computer languages.
I can design electronic circuits.
I'm close to being obsolete as AI matures.
Luckily I'm retired.

Next is debt, a promise to repay something loaned. My Social Security and Medicare
are all promises to repay us  for money we spent our working lives loaning to the government.
Fewer workers paying taxes is a problem in paying that debt owed to me and you.
The general public has not considered that. It rather looks like a "Logans run" solution is in the works.

I welcome a depression of prices, as most wealth is artificial "paper" and isn't real in a tangible sense.
Why has my home quadrupled in value?  Occam's razor answer is, just so the government can tax me
more for it.
The FED has been artificially been causing inflation for nearly a century now.  It isn't real,
A reset will be welcome.
Expect a corresponding reset in wages. It is ridiculous  for a Longshoreman to earn more than a doctor,
for a lawyer to earn more than a nurse, for a senator to become a multimillionaire.

I prepare for disasters, I'm hoping I did good, but If I didn't, oh well.
I worry about my daughter and her family.  My grandson will bear the brunt
of all this, a Democrat run economy.
People like you and I are sliding down the slippery side of the mountain
we spent our lives climbing.  Grand kids are are still climbing.
People that support people like Hillary are throwing rocks at our Grand kids.
At our ages it will be difficult to stop it.

This thread was not started to create panic, but to share all available economic and financial related information for people to make their own decisions on how to prepare with regards to the economic and financial fallout from Covid-19.

If one wishes to simply believe in what the government says or what it has in-place to protect them, that is their business.  This thread is for those who want to share and learn, if there is anything outside of that they should know.

FYI.  USA Today has just reported that Hawaii's unemployment rate is the highest in the US and the figure they were using was already outdated, since the Star Advertiser's report I posted yesterday.

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/04/18/hawaii-news/hawaii-has-the-highest-unemployment-rate-in-the-nation-usa-today-reports/?HSA=ebacc6aa049946455017017ee772b4a900c45fe3


 

This thread was not started to create panic, but to share all available economic and financial related information for people to make their own decisions on how to prepare with regards to the economic and financial fallout from Covid-19.

If one wishes to simply believe in what the government says or what it has in-place to protect them, that is their business.  This thread is for those who want to share and learn, if there is anything outside of that they should know.

FYI.  USA Today has just reported that Hawaii's unemployment rate is the highest in the US and the figure they were using was already outdated, since the Star Advertiser's report I posted yesterday.

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020/04/18/hawaii-news/hawaii-has-the-highest-unemployment-rate-in-the-nation-usa-today-reports/?HSA=ebacc6aa049946455017017ee772b4a900c45fe3

as per usual, everyone who doesn't believe what you say is blindly obedient to the government, and what you know is outside of what everyone else knows...

as per usual, everyone who doesn't believe what you say is blindly obedient to the government, and what you know is outside of what everyone else knows...

The UI “loosing” funds? Maybe they should tighten things up?

But seriously, it’s not like that is even remotely a surprise. I’m by no means an economist, but don’t need “intel” for any of that. 

This is exactly how I feel when I see this sort of post. In some ways I consider this type of post trolling. But that is my opinion only. At the very least when only one side is presented and it is the sensationalism side of nothing but doom and gloom it smacks of trying to get someone’s emotions riled. In my opinion if Kuleana wanted to truly discuss this topic in its entirety he would have researched this subject a lot more and presented facts from both sides, not just one side, and not present projections. But the post is what it is.

First I want to go on record as saying unlike some, I cannot and will not try and project what the future is going to be. They don’t know and neither do I. I also want to state that in order for the world to be in a global depression, then the US with the worlds largest economy has to also be in a depression. And at this point, we are far from a depression. We are not officially in a recession yet tho it is a forgone conclusion when the quarter ends we will be. The definition of a recession precludes us from officially saying so until we have 2 quarters (or 6 months) in a row if my memory serves me correctly. I also want to go on record as saying that it could very well happen that we go into a depression. There is just not enough facts and statistics yet for the period of time required to be able to state we are even close to a depression yet. I think it serves little purpose to try and sensationalize what is happening in other economies when our economy is not close, yet.

With all this said, we actually did learn from the Great Depression. We put in place numerous monetary and fiscal policies to try and prevent a depression from happening again here in the US. We have numerous Stabilization policies that will keep us stable even if we do enter a depression. The FED is in place to help stabilize interest rates.  Our banks are much better prepared with cash and liquidity in case there are a lot of mortgage defaults. Even more so than the real estate bust of 2008. We have UI for those who lose their jobs to help them pay their mortgages for up to a year. We have FDIC insured bank accounts so people don’t lose their funds if a bank goes under. There is a lot more, one can Google it if they care to.

The bottom line is there is all sorts of sensational headlines regarding this topic. Most of them are there to sell content. If you read them closely, most “Project” or predict what could be. And try to spread doom and gloom. I’m not saying they can’t come true sometime in the future. Just that 2 months ago our future was bright and upbeat. So take everything you read here with a grain of salt until we have more data over a considerable time period.

Is the current situation good? Uh, no. Is the current situation have potential to be very bad? Of course. But you hit on a couple of key things. Sensationalism and emotional riling.  The sort of irrational reaction to this situation that IMO is and will be very damaging, more than the virus itself.

The UI “loosing” funds? Maybe they should tighten things up?

But seriously, it’s not like that is even remotely a surprise. I’m by no means an economist, but don’t need “intel” for any of that. 
Is the current situation good? Uh, no. Is the current situation have potential to be very bad? Of course. But you hit on a couple of key things. Sensationalism and emotional riling.  The sort of irrational reaction to this situation that IMO is and will be very damaging, more than the virus itself.

Looks like your time in Seattle didn't turn you to the dark side
You hit the nail on the head.

as per usual, everyone who doesn't believe what you say is blindly obedient to the government, and what you know is outside of what everyone else knows...

Where did I say that or infer I know more than everyone else?

I thought it was clear that I also hope to get information from others that could help me better prepare as well.

There are a number of new members and visitors to this forum, who are just in the beginning stages of firearm ownership and presumably in disaster preparedness.  As with Rocky's thread detailing the Hawaii's Covid-19 numbers, this thread will try to keep a pulse on the economic indicators that affect common people during this crisis.

For those who believe that this thread was created to promote sensationalism or elicit extreme emotionalism, may be they should post the same remarks to Rocky, as his daily reporting of Hawaii's Covid-19 might be resulting in the same thing.

Look on the bright side.  COVID 19 has caused crime, traffic and accidents to drop dramatically.  Gas prices are down, my friend in MN sent me a picture reg gas $0.91 and his smiling face.  LA and China have clear skies now.  Ins co giving drivers 15% discount.  The Fed giving us money and allowing us to pay our taxes 90 days later.  Us old guys get to shop before the rest of the crowd and best of all, this may bring down the Democratic party in Hawaii.

Look on the bright side.  COVID 19 has caused crime, traffic and accidents to drop dramatically.  Gas prices are down, my friend in MN sent me a picture reg gas $0.91 and his smiling face.  LA and China have clear skies now.  Ins co giving drivers 15% discount.  The Fed giving us money and allowing us to pay our taxes 90 days later.  Us old guys get to shop before the rest of the crowd and best of all, this may bring down the Democratic party in Hawaii.

don't count on that
everyone thinks that Dr Josh "i'm a doctor" green is such a great guy
he's a total socialist...

Do not compare my re-posting of the DOH update on Corona virus in Hawaii to your post. 

In my post I neither plagiarize nor insert my personal opinion, hearsay information from "my contacts" , predict the future or question government action.

Do not compare my re-posting of the DOH update on Corona virus in Hawaii to your post. 

In my post I neither plagiarize nor insert my personal opinion, hearsay information from "my contacts" , predict the future or question government action.

Not looking to pick a fight with you, but why are you so sensitive?

I personally find your Covid-19 posts very informative, as it has generated insightful commentary and discussion from other posters on that thread.  I find it baffling to see why there is so much negative emotion and criticism on this thread. 

Inspector, you and I think a lot alike perhaps because of age, we grew up in the same area,
but I blame it all on the similar water we drank.
In all probability there will not be a Depression in sense of the world Depression of the 1930's
as you say there have been many changes to our money system to prevent that.
However, something new has developed.  I have warned about this for years.
Simply put,  people are a pain in the ass. A pain to employ, work with, and in many cases
to be with in public places.
So for employment there has been an unstoppable move to automate. This will continue.
People like me have done this work and it will only grow, improve, and will become as normal as
breathing.  Problem is what do you do with all the people that no longer have jobs?
Most people are clever, but intellectually dumb as posts. Re-train them all to Code? NOT!
I'm fluent in about 20 or so computer languages. I know how to design computer languages.
I can design electronic circuits.
I'm close to being obsolete as AI matures.
Luckily I'm retired.

Next is debt, a promise to repay something loaned. My Social Security and Medicare
are all promises to repay us  for money we spent our working lives loaning to the government.
Fewer workers paying taxes is a problem in paying that debt owed to me and you.
The general public has not considered that. It rather looks like a "Logans run" solution is in the works.

I welcome a depression of prices, as most wealth is artificial "paper" and isn't real in a tangible sense.
Why has my home quadrupled in value?  Occam's razor answer is, just so the government can tax me
more for it.
The FED has been artificially been causing inflation for nearly a century now.  It isn't real,
A reset will be welcome.
Expect a corresponding reset in wages. It is ridiculous  for a Longshoreman to earn more than a doctor,
for a lawyer to earn more than a nurse, for a senator to become a multimillionaire.

I prepare for disasters, I'm hoping I did good, but If I didn't, oh well.
I worry about my daughter and her family.  My grandson will bear the brunt
of all this, a Democrat run economy.
People like you and I are sliding down the slippery side of the mountain
we spent our lives climbing.  Grand kids are are still climbing.
People that support people like Hillary are throwing rocks at our Grand kids.
At our ages it will be difficult to stop it.

You and I have spoken at great length about our backgrounds and our opinions. Yeah, I think we drank the same koolaid! 

You said one thing that I am not sure about. Because so far we have been able to create and keep employed all the people who should have been replaced by automation. The exceptionally low unemployment and underemployed rates I think bear that out. Anyone who wanted to work was working. Certain jobs cannot be completely replaced. And those jobs are the ones that will remain in high demand and correspondingly high pay. You had one of those jobs. While the languages you know might become obsolete, there will be new and better languages created and so the cycle continues. As we build more automation the people designing and building and maintaining will be needed. Like I said, I am not sure about this as I don’t see a lot of evidence yet that there are not enough jobs for people when just a couple of months ago we had 7M more jobs than we had eligible people to fill them. We needed to import qualified people to fill those jobs. So I am not sure it will ever happen, but if it does it probably won’t be in our lifetime.

The baby boomers are almost all retired now. The boomers end in 1964. I just retired as early as I could and I was born in 1958. So in 6-7 years the retiring boomers are going to drop down in numbers. And as we die off faster than we begin SS our burden on the system will dwindle. They have been talking about how the boomers are going to ruin SS for the next generation. It won’t be long before the trend starts to reverse. I think there is an immediate problem that needs to be addressed and soon, but I don’t think in 15-20 years it will be that big of a problem as we boomers continue to die off. BTW, one big reason I decided to retire now is so whatever our government decides to do to fix and save SS in the near term should not effect me as they usually don’t touch those who are already collecting and should be grandfathered in.