Hoping some other members can answer.

Two sides to story. What’s the positive side?
No Depression ? Quick rebound ?

This is coming from someone still relatively young, with 3 small children who is currently furloughed.

We’ve been homeschooling the kids from the beginning (charter school), so this is business as usual.  More parents will have to engage in home schooling and hopefully realize the liberal indoctrination that’s going on. That, and realize they can teach them themselves. This brings more parent child interaction, which will hopefully foster a better relationship and bring more parent involvement.  I believe this applies to rip off colleges too.

There is no sports (modern day colosseum) to distract the masses so people are hopefully being more productive with their time, learning a new instrument via lesson online, studying history, paying more attention to people in office, fixing their homes, tending to the piles that haven’t been tended to, etc.

Times like these makes people take a step back and realize what is really important. It’s easy to lose sight of that in today’s go go go world.

I don’t know what the future will hold, but there is always opportunity in crisis. There are industries that are thriving right now. Groceries, video chat apps, etc.

This is coming from someone who worries quite a bit as well.

Prescott Valley?  I think my mothers first cousin lives there.
I have one of his books( it is not very good).

The glass is half empty.
There were lots of new jobs created and unfilled.
but the wages were shit.
and they were service jobs.

Us "old farts" will die off in the next twenty years or so,
that is true.  We got ours,  now they can try to get theirs.
I fear we cannot accommodate the kids as well
as we were helped in our youth. 
Y'all know most people aren't cut out
to be "self actualizing".
Sorry,  result of going to Liberal Seattle universities.
Be well.
Aloha.

Thanks for the well wishes my friend.
Aloha.

This is coming from someone still relatively young, with 3 small children who is currently furloughed.

We’ve been homeschooling the kids from the beginning (charter school), so this is business as usual.  More parents will have to engage in home schooling and hopefully realize the liberal indoctrination that’s going on. That, and realize they can teach them themselves. This brings more parent child interaction, which will hopefully foster a better relationship and bring more parent involvement.  I believe this applies to rip off colleges too.

There is no sports (modern day colosseum) to distract the masses so people are hopefully being more productive with their time, learning a new instrument via lesson online, studying history, paying more attention to people in office, fixing their homes, tending to the piles that haven’t been tended to, etc.

Times like these makes people take a step back and realize what is really important. It’s easy to lose sight of that in today’s go go go world.

I don’t know what the future will hold, but there is always opportunity in crisis. There are industries that are thriving right now. Groceries, video chat apps, etc.

This is coming from someone who worries quite a bit as well.

I saw an emergency patient yesterday, and he told me, "hopefully, people will start to be nicer and more considerate to each other"

Hound,

You have read my posts, honest comments and accusations made against them, and my subsequent responses.  I did not start a thread of panic or try to create drama; I started a thread to talk and discuss whatever facts available, analysis, and commentary from our forum community, with the hopes the resulting discussions will bring insights, not only in one's physical preparations, but also mindset going forward in the near future.  The main reason I have and chosen not to spend too much time on positive aspects in the news is because those who are really suffering (i.e., people who have lost employment) have most likely already heard it and are intuitive enough to know that such information is more towards to calm people's fears, rather than offer specific answers on how it improves the living situation of the average joe on the street.

Having said that, as a practicing economist, I began posting economic publicly reported data, along with insight and analysis from my discussions with people who work in the government and colleagues from other countries.  I stand-by everything I said and further share my view that things will not get back to normal anytime soon.  In the short-term, the only semblance of recovery my colleagues and I are HOPING to see is during the upcoming Summer months, where it is HOPED that the rate of transmission between people will dramatically fall due to the high volume of UV rays that will bombard the planet at that time.  IF the expectations are accurate, those unemployed should milk it for all its worth, reduce their debt, and financially prepare for even harder times.  Once the Summer is gone, flu season returns and with no vaccines available at that time, you can bet Covid-19 will come back with a global vengeance.  Coupled with the fact it will be highly doubtful that everyone in Hawaii who lost their job now will get it back in the third quarter of this year at the same rate of pay, the average joe should begin rethinking their living arrangements and living budgets now.

Now, the rebuttal of the scenario I shared above, will focus on the government stimulus actions to date that I will not go over, as it was accurately shared by Inspector and I AGREE with the theoretical outcome IF everything goes according to plan.  However, the flaw I see in that view that is shared by many who have been unemployed are multifold.  First, we know already that unemployment insurance will not have the funds to cover people for the next six months.  Second, the money earmarked for small business in the latest stimulus package with the hopes of retaining workers has capped off.  Third, with the prospects of a SAFE and RELIABLE vaccine realistically not being available in near term, there is no reason to believe the economic effects of Covid-19 will go away for the rest of this year.  Fourth, we need to remember that the US economy is tied to the global economy and even if the US is open for business, the REST of the World may be not; hence customers and suppliers to the US might not be ready to conduct business yet.  What this means is that there IS reason to have cautious hope, but the average joe will be better served still preparing for the worst.

It is at the beginning of the third quarter where will we truly see whether a global depression will be a reality.  The third quarter of this year will signal the beginning of flu season and Covid-19.  It is here my eyes and I suggest everyone else's eyes should be on the macroeconomic indicators.  IF everything goes as planned, as recounted by Inspector, we should start seeing local, national, and global GDP rising.  IF so, we can all laugh, eat chicken at Popeyes, and look forward to getting employment back on track to pre Covid-19 levels.  IF there is any significant indication of GDP decline, this will be the sign that deflation will soon be upon us because there will be things to buy, but no one around with enough discretionary income to buy them.  Moreover, with the trillions of US dollars printed up to that point, hyperinflation will rear its head to everyone's detriment sometime, thereafter.

As it stands, the truth of the matter for all those unemployed is that everyone affected will get their $1,200 plus $500 per child bailout that does not need to be reported in income taxes.  Despite most of the money going to prop up Wall Street, the government has also made available, through already depleted, crumbs for small business to retain its workers.  In the short-term, be ready to cash-in for some reopening of the economy during the Summer.  However, save that money to prepare for any future contingencies in daily living expenditures.  Finally, keep your eyes on the macroeconomic indicators come third quarter, as that will be the make or break economic moment for the year.

I look forward to getting all kinds of information and discourse to what I just shared because I hope I am totally wrong.  However, I still feel we need to be constantly reminded of what could go wrong, as that is what has happened and what everyone has been responding to till this point.

Be safe, healthy, and prepare as best you can Hound.   

by far, your best post ever on this forum...
 

I saw an emergency patient yesterday, and he told me, "hopefully, people will start to be nicer and more considerate to each other"

I hope and pray people never forget the sacrifices you and the rest of your health professionals brethren have taken during this crisis.   

by far, your best post ever on this forum...
 

Receiving this from one the medical professional heroes here in Hawaii, I am humbled, Dr. Macsak.   

I hope and pray people never forget the sacrifices you and the rest of your health professionals brethren have taken during this crisis.   

the only sacrifice I am making is closing my office to increase social distancing and preserve ppe
my main goal is to keep my mom healthy and safe, along with my staff, patients and the general public
others have sacrificed more and placed themselves in far riskier situations than I have, and they deserve the credit

Most the time you and I disagree mainly on Military stuff.
But your comment here is within reason.
I'm much more pessimistic than you are.
I know most people are idiots,
you believe they are not.

Hawaii is in for a bad time, if you are not debt free,
can grow your food, have guns and ammo to protect yourself,
and obtain water, you won't survive.

Fear is powerful. How you deal with it
will determine if you survive or not.
Aloha.

Despite our disagreements, I do take solace in those items that very few people outside you and I do agree with.  I know your views of people is informed by your life's wisdom and maybe I just might come to the same conclusion.  I totally agree with you in your views of preparedness and hope to achieve the standards you laid out.  This may just be the year when our preparations and skills will be tested for real.

the only sacrifice I am making is closing my office to increase social distancing and preserve ppe
my main goal is to keep my mom healthy and safe, along with my staff, patients and the general public
others have sacrificed more and placed themselves in far riskier situations than I have, and they deserve the credit

Agreed, but the current crisis has put a spotlight of those in the community that have made it their profession to maintain the health and well-being of others and collectively have earned to be given a shout out, nevertheless. 

So today the oil market crashed. It is currently below $12/barrel and it touched the $10 range at one point. It needs to be in the $35-$40 per barrel price for our oil companies to make money. There are reports that somewhere in the US that gas is being sold for less than a dollar a gallon. This is a bad sign as it means we may lose our energy independence and dominance. It will take a while before that happens but it could. The real question is how long can Russia and Saudi Arabia sell oil at these prices before they are forced to cut back production so the price goes back up to more normal levels? The markets are down today on the oil market crash. This oil market crash puts this market into depression category. And by the way, this market can crash and go negative. Yes it could get to the point that countries selling oil may have to pay their buyers to have their oil removed out of the ground. Deflation in the oil market is possible. Could it be that we can get paid to pump gas into our cars? Tesla could take a big hit during this time of cheap gas.

Gold and silver are higher today as well as the 10 year govt bond rate going down. This is to be expected in a down market day as investors flee to safety.

The industries related to tourism are taking the biggest hits so far. The cruise lines are getting hit the worst. While airlines are getting hit pretty hard. Boeing just reopened their plants and are going to start building planes again.

The real estate market including mortgage providers are seeing a significant slowdown. People are not selling their houses in this time of uncertainty. New home listings are down 27%. And buyers are putting off their purchases as well.

Some food industries like Campbells are up today and doing quite well in this time. The alcohol industries are also booming right now. Marijuana stocks and stores not doing so well. I expected them to go the same way as alcohol.

There have been some reports that some of the SBA money that is supposed to go to small businesses has gone to some publicly traded companies. This has to be fixed as it is taking money away from small businesses.

On a positive note some large cities and non profits are reporting that in this time of people out of work, Americans are volunteering and there is no shortage of labor being volunteered.

My personal opinion on what is happening in the US and to a lesser extent, the world is that the end of the year will be the telling point whether things are going to turn around or if we are going to move towards a depression. I think it is going to take longer than the projections to get our economy back humming again. I think the key is to open restaurants and small businesses. I think this will go a long way to not only re-energize the economy but it will go a long way towards helping people’s attitudes towards turning positive.

Hound,

You have read my posts, honest comments and accusations made against them, and my subsequent responses.  I did not start a thread of panic or try to create drama; I started a thread to talk and discuss whatever facts available, analysis, and commentary from our forum community, with the hopes the resulting discussions will bring insights, not only in one's physical preparations, but also mindset going forward in the near future.  The main reason I have and chosen not to spend too much time on positive aspects in the news is because those who are really suffering (i.e., people who have lost employment) have most likely already heard it and are intuitive enough to know that such information is more towards to calm people's fears, rather than offer specific answers on how it improves the living situation of the average joe on the street.

Having said that, as a practicing economist, I began posting economic publicly reported data, along with insight and analysis from my discussions with people who work in the government and colleagues from other countries.  I stand-by everything I said and further share my view that things will not get back to normal anytime soon.  In the short-term, the only semblance of recovery my colleagues and I are HOPING to see is during the upcoming Summer months, where it is HOPED that the rate of transmission between people will dramatically fall due to the high volume of UV rays that will bombard the planet at that time.  IF the expectations are accurate, those unemployed should milk it for all its worth, reduce their debt, and financially prepare for even harder times.  Once the Summer is gone, flu season returns and with no vaccines available at that time, you can bet Covid-19 will come back with a global vengeance.  Coupled with the fact it will be highly doubtful that everyone in Hawaii who lost their job now will get it back in the third quarter of this year at the same rate of pay, the average joe should begin rethinking their living arrangements and living budgets now.

Now, the rebuttal of the scenario I shared above, will focus on the government stimulus actions to date that I will not go over, as it was accurately shared by Inspector and I AGREE with the theoretical outcome IF everything goes according to plan.  However, the flaw I see in that view that is shared by many who have been unemployed are multifold.  First, we know already that unemployment insurance will not have the funds to cover people for the next six months.  Second, the money earmarked for small business in the latest stimulus package with the hopes of retaining workers has capped off.  Third, with the prospects of a SAFE and RELIABLE vaccine realistically not being available in near term, there is no reason to believe the economic effects of Covid-19 will go away for the rest of this year.  Fourth, we need to remember that the US economy is tied to the global economy and even if the US is open for business, the REST of the World may be not; hence customers and suppliers to the US might not be ready to conduct business yet.  What this means is that there IS reason to have cautious hope, but the average joe will be better served still preparing for the worst.

It is at the beginning of the third quarter where will we truly see whether a global depression will be a reality.  The third quarter of this year will signal the beginning of flu season and Covid-19.  It is here my eyes and I suggest everyone else's eyes should be on the macroeconomic indicators.  IF everything goes as planned, as recounted by Inspector, we should start seeing local, national, and global GDP rising.  IF so, we can all laugh, eat chicken at Popeyes, and look forward to getting employment back on track to pre Covid-19 levels.  IF there is any significant indication of GDP decline, this will be the sign that deflation will soon be upon us because there will be things to buy, but no one around with enough discretionary income to buy them.  Moreover, with the trillions of US dollars printed up to that point, hyperinflation will rear its head to everyone's detriment sometime, thereafter.

As it stands, the truth of the matter for all those unemployed is that everyone affected will get their $1,200 plus $500 per child bailout that does not need to be reported in income taxes.  Despite most of the money going to prop up Wall Street, the government has also made available, through already depleted, crumbs for small business to retain its workers.  In the short-term, be ready to cash-in for some reopening of the economy during the Summer.  However, save that money to prepare for any future contingencies in daily living expenditures.  Finally, keep your eyes on the macroeconomic indicators come third quarter, as that will be the make or break economic moment for the year.

I look forward to getting all kinds of information and discourse to what I just shared because I hope I am totally wrong.  However, I still feel we need to be constantly reminded of what could go wrong, as that is what has happened and what everyone has been responding to till this point.

Be safe, healthy, and prepare as best you can Hound.   

Don’t know how I missed your post here. It is very long and very thoughtful. Thank you for it.

You and I agree on a lot more than even you stated here. I have lived my life on the hope for the best and prepare for the worst scenario. It has worked well for me most of my life. There is nothing wrong with looking at what could be scenarios when looking at the down side. But there is something wrong with only looking at the down side. Which is why I encouraged you to post both sides and not just one. Let me tell you a quick little story. I used to have a very wise older Japanese boss when I was in my late 20’s. He was very influential to me. Quite often I would walk by his office and he was sitting in his chair with his feet up on the desk reading a piece of paper. My perception of him was he is always working and rarely takes a break. What I didn’t know at that time and what everyone else didn’t know, that I later found out was that when he had his feet up on his desk he was taking a nap. He looked like he was working when he was actually taking a break. The lesson I learned from him is a saying he had which was “Perception is everything”. When I read your OP my first reaction was the same as MrGraf’s and probably many others here. And that was “the sky is falling”. That is how I first perceived your OP. You then had to go back and explain your original intention of your OP to me and to others because of the perception you created by your one sided OP. That’s on you. We now know that was not your original intention. But look at how much you had to type to explain yourself when you could have avoided that in your OP. Look at how far we had to come in this thread before we are finally getting some real discussion. Remember, “Perception is everything”. 

[quote author=Inspector link=topic=36423.msg325403#msg325403 date=1587391615

The real estate market including mortgage providers are seeing a significant slowdown. People are not selling their houses in this time of uncertainty. New home listings are down 27%. And buyers are putting off their purchases as well.

[/quote]

I was just about to ask you how the real estate market was doing.
I've heard interest rates were low right now,  but never realized there might be less available on the market. 
Hoping I can buy in the next 3 years

[quote author=Inspector link=topic=36423.msg325403#msg325403 date=1587391615

The real estate market including mortgage providers are seeing a significant slowdown. People are not selling their houses in this time of uncertainty. New home listings are down 27%. And buyers are putting off their purchases as well.



I was just about to ask you how the real estate market was doing.
I've heard interest rates were low right now,  but never realized there might be less available on the market. 
Hoping I can buy in the next 3 years

As far as the Hawaii market is concerned, the market is soft right now and the prices are dropping. Unfortunately, it happened right in the middle of my selling my home so I had to accept a little lower price than what I was expecting. There is a new mandatory form that both sides have to sign that allows either side to cancel a contract if Covid-19 affects you one way or another. It is a good time for buyers wishing to find a seller that is hard up to sell or just get a home at a decent price. As decent as Hawaii prices are. So the Hawaii market is unique in that a lot of the homes are being bought/sold by military. Meaning they have to sell because they are deploying or being moved. Buyers are not affected by the Covid-19 because they are not going to get laid off. People who need to sell for whatever reason are selling. But those sellers who are uncertain are holding off. Buyers are usually those with essential jobs and are not affected. But those who are not essential but still have jobs are uncertain so they are waiting to buy. So most of what you are seeing is a significant drop in sales and listings. Most RE offices are recommending zero contact with clients unless absolutely necessary. So they are trying to push virtual tours and doing a lot of Internet work. My guess is if you can buy near the end of the year wait and see where the market is going. It will either be dropping or breaking even. If it is still dropping then you might want to consider buying as soon as the government starts to reopen the state for business. This is only a recommendation and not a tip of any type. You need to do your own due diligence.

I can’t say what the market will be like in 3 years.

As far as the Hawaii market is concerned, the market is soft right now and the prices are dropping. Unfortunately, it happened right in the middle of my selling my home so I had to accept a little lower price than what I was expecting. There is a new mandatory form that both sides have to sign that allows either side to cancel a contract if Covid-19 affects you one way or another. It is a good time for buyers wishing to find a seller that is hard up to sell or just get a home at a decent price. As decent as Hawaii prices are. So the Hawaii market is unique in that a lot of the homes are being bought/sold by military. Meaning they have to sell because they are deploying or being moved. Buyers are not affected by the Covid-19 because they are not going to get laid off. People who need to sell for whatever reason are selling. But those sellers who are uncertain are holding off. Buyers are usually those with essential jobs and are not affected. But those who are not essential but still have jobs are uncertain so they are waiting to buy. So most of what you are seeing is a significant drop in sales and listings. Most RE offices are recommending zero contact with clients unless absolutely necessary. So they are trying to push virtual tours and doing a lot of Internet work. My guess is if you can buy near the end of the year wait and see where the market is going. It will either be dropping or breaking even. If it is still dropping then you might want to consider buying as soon as the government starts to reopen the state for business. This is only a recommendation and not a tip of any type. You need to do your own due diligence.

I can’t say what the market will be like in 3 years.

Thanks for the reply.
I love reading your posts,  replies and all your knowledge. 
 I wish I was in a better spot to buy now,  but that's just what it is

Thanks for the reply.
I love reading your posts,  replies and all your knowledge. 
 I wish I was in a better spot to buy now,  but that's just what it is

Thanks for the kind words. As you probably already know I think RE is a good investment. It is where I have invested most of my money. This is my opinion only. Hawaii RE can be a good investment if you are buying a house for yourself and your family. Buy when you have the down payment and you are ready. Take a couple pieces of advice. DO not sign a buyers agreement with your agent. If you end up not liking them and want to fire them you might still have to pay their commission if you sign the agreement. Any agent that tries to get you to sign one doesn’t have a lot of confidence in themselves. Don’t be afraid to fire your agent and find another if you don’t like them. And last but not least, don’t fall in love with a house/home. If you are emotionally involved you will be more inclined to make bad financial decisions before, during and after the sale.

Let me know when you are ready and I’ll be happy to help answer all your questions if I can.

So today the oil market crashed. It is currently below $12/barrel and it touched the $10 range at one point. It needs to be in the $35-$40 per barrel price for our oil companies to make money. There are reports that somewhere in the US that gas is being sold for less than a dollar a gallon. This is a bad sign as it means we may lose our energy independence and dominance. It will take a while before that happens but it could. The real question is how long can Russia and Saudi Arabia sell oil at these prices before they are forced to cut back production so the price goes back up to more normal levels? The markets are down today on the oil market crash. This oil market crash puts this market into depression category. And by the way, this market can crash and go negative. Yes it could get to the point that countries selling oil may have to pay their buyers to have their oil removed out of the ground. Deflation in the oil market is possible. Could it be that we can get paid to pump gas into our cars? Tesla could take a big hit during this time of cheap gas.

Gold and silver are higher today as well as the 10 year govt bond rate going down. This is to be expected in a down market day as investors flee to safety.

The industries related to tourism are taking the biggest hits so far. The cruise lines are getting hit the worst. While airlines are getting hit pretty hard. Boeing just reopened their plants and are going to start building planes again.

The real estate market including mortgage providers are seeing a significant slowdown. People are not selling their houses in this time of uncertainty. New home listings are down 27%. And buyers are putting off their purchases as well.

Some food industries like Campbells are up today and doing quite well in this time. The alcohol industries are also booming right now. Marijuana stocks and stores not doing so well. I expected them to go the same way as alcohol.

There have been some reports that some of the SBA money that is supposed to go to small businesses has gone to some publicly traded companies. This has to be fixed as it is taking money away from small businesses.

On a positive note some large cities and non profits are reporting that in this time of people out of work, Americans are volunteering and there is no shortage of labor being volunteered.

My personal opinion on what is happening in the US and to a lesser extent, the world is that the end of the year will be the telling point whether things are going to turn around or if we are going to move towards a depression. I think it is going to take longer than the projections to get our economy back humming again. I think the key is to open restaurants and small businesses. I think this will go a long way to not only re-energize the economy but it will go a long way towards helping people’s attitudes towards turning positive.

"Boeing just reopened their plants and are going to start building planes again."
My Brother was ordered back to work starting tomorrow.
He builds 737 MAX parts at the Auburn plant.
I don't know what they are going to do with them.
Nobody is flying.  I don't
expect that to change much in the next few years.
Flying was already a pain in the ass, now people are
going to be worried about being in a crowd.
Facts and data are always co-opted by perceptions.
in the public eye.
If you can drive there that may become the choice.
20+ years at Boeing and retired engineer.
I know a little bit about airplanes and
the FAA.

Since this is "Off Topic"
I have two aunts that were very successful in real estate,
so I never had to deal with shady real estate types and
I had top notch advice, in all my home purchases and sales.
Your advice to the young man is very sound.

Crude, I believe, traded at below $0 today.   This is very concerning to me. Supply exceedingly overwhelming demand.  And could very well cause shortages as refiners ramp down production, then will not be able to keep up with spikes in demand. As well as raw crude producers may go belly up, not being able to pay their bills. Causing fuel shortages.    This in conjunction with the same fluctuations in food supply and demand spikes and fluctuations is going to cause major problems in food delivery and supply.  As well as every other fuel based delivery.   In Hawaii this very well could be a huge issue.

I'm keeping my eyes open on this.

"Boeing just reopened their plants and are going to start building planes again."
My Brother was ordered back to work starting tomorrow.
He builds 737 MAX parts at the Auburn plant.
I don't know what they are going to do with them.
Nobody is flying.  I don't
expect that to change much in the next few years.
Flying was already a pain in the ass, now people are
going to be worried about being in a crowd.
Facts and data are always co-opted by perceptions.
in the public eye.
If you can drive there that may become the choice.
20+ years at Boeing and retired engineer.
I know a little bit about airplanes and
the FAA.

Since this is "Off Topic"
I have two aunts that were very successful in real estate,
so I never had to deal with shady real estate types and
I had top notch advice, in all my home purchases and sales.
Your advice to the young man is very sound.

I wish your brother well. I think it is going to be bumpy for Boeing until at least the end of the year.

The young man and his significant other are fine people. They work hard and will be successful in their lives. Don’t want anyone getting taken advantage of.

Crude, I believe, traded at below $0 today.   This is very concerning to me. Supply exceedingly overwhelming demand.  And could very well cause shortages as refiners ramp down production, then will not be able to keep up with spikes in demand. As well as raw crude producers may go belly up, not being able to pay their bills. Causing fuel shortages.    This in conjunction with the same fluctuations in food supply and demand spikes and fluctuations is going to cause major problems in food delivery and supply.  As well as every other fuel based delivery.   In Hawaii this very well could be a huge issue.

I'm keeping my eyes open on this.

I was going to write about this yesterday afternoon but I took a nap instead. 

It’s important to understand the reason behind it going negative. There are two big forces at work here. First, Russia was in lockstep with OPEC and holding back on crude production which was holding the prices at levels so everyone can make money. But Russia is not signatory to OPEC. And for reasons known only to it, Russia decided to open the spigot and start producing more crude oil. Some say they did it in order to make more money since they are financially in trouble due to the US becoming the energy powerhouse it was always able to be. Others are saying they did it in order to hurt and break the US oil industry. When Russia did this, Saudi Arabia increased their production for reasons only they know. Some say they did it in order to keep Russia from undercutting their oil supplies. Others say they are in cahoots with Russia to help bring down the US oil industry. Depends on which camp you are in. That brought prices down below $20/barrel. During this time the Pandemic hit and demand has dropped 30% worldwide. So not only are the producers making so much more than needed, but the need has dropped tremendously. But what happened yesterday is that the May future contracts for oil were coming due. And a lot of those holding futures contracts realized if they didn’t dump the contracts quick they would be left in a bad position that could be worthless or worse, you could be forced to take delivery of the crude oil you are holding a contract for. And if you are not in the oil business this could mean a disaster for you. Having a glut of oil may not be such a bad thing. First of all, we should be filling our strategic reserves during this period of very cheap oil. Especially if Russia and Saudi Arabia is willing to pay us to take it. But when the reserves are full what happens? You have to put it somewhere. You can’t just dump it. So basically you have to put it in a ship and figure out how to get rid of it. Well, the oil producers can’t just shut down production. It takes time and while you are trying to shut down, oil is still flowing. This is a very costly mistake made by Russia and SA. In the meantime, refiners are still working but their production has been reduced. They are not going to shut down. So I am not sure we are going to see spikes in demand that cannot be handled by the refiners. It could certainly happen and prices will go up but they will have a huge reserve of crude. So I am not sure the spike will be all that bad. But obviously I could be wrong. If the spike in demand is as severe as you are concerned with, it will effect the supply of food and supplies coming to Hawaii. But first there will probably be a gas shortage on the island. So that could be the telltale sign that shipping could eventually be interrupted.

As I write this, Crude Oil is way up from yesterday. However it is still in negative territory at around -$4.47/barrel. My understanding is that the June Futures Contracts are in the $15-$16 per barrel range. Not great but not negative. The July Futures Contracts are even better being closer to $50/barrel. The experts are expecting the price to turn positive by tomorrow because that is when the June futures contracts come into effect. But who knows?

As I write this the president just announced we will buy as much as 75 billion barrels of oil for our strategic oil reserves. Market futures are down across the board including gold and silver.