There's currently a 11% federal tax on ammo that goes towards hunting and range programs, I suppose that's how it's justified.  However a large federal tax meant to discourage purchases that doesn't go back towards shooting programs would be found unconstitutional.

They could pull off a large tariff on ammo imports or just ban it entirely which would cause ammo prices to skyrocket.

I just feel they will propose some weird shit to justify the federal tax.  May be unconstitutional but that haven't stopped them from trying, or maybe even being successful probably in some cases.

I don't however, have any evidence to back up my claim.

Firearms education programs.  Following example of Hawaii's law makers.   

you mean like cigarette taxes?....

That's the irony/idiocy of gov't.

With one hand they were subsidizing the tobacco companies, and with the other they were taxing them so customers would stop using tobacco products.

Through a combination of high prices via taxes and educational programs funded by the taxes, the goal was to put big tobacco out of business.

I expect to see this tactic used for firearms, ammo, accessories, training classes, .... anything to increase prices so the people who need self protection the most will be the least able to afford it.

KGS web page showed 223 FMJ at $28 for box of 20, limit 3 boxes, and guess what.  He is sold out!  If you bought ammo a couple years ago, sit on it and sell later this year.  Better than the stock market. 
BTW, KGS was selling 22LR 36 GR HP for $80 a brick.  Also sold out.

Sure makes classified prices look better.

Sure makes classified prices look better.

shhhhh. Don't say that.

I hope they're looking at expanding. With BIden as pres, ammo shortage aint gonna end anytime soon and it's already been 10 months so far since it began.

I hope they're looking at expanding. With BIden as pres, ammo shortage aint gonna end anytime soon and it's already been 10 months so far since it began.

I’m no expert. But I read that during the last ammo shortage, the ammo manufacturers bought new equipment, expanded their footprint and hired new employees. By the time they got everything up and running the ammo shortage was slowing and within a few months demand diminished and they caught up and prices went lower. They made this huge investment in equipment, footprint and employees and the shortage didn’t last long enough for them to recover their added expenses. And being gun shy this time, they are not making investments this time like they did the last time. So for that reason alone (if true) the ammo shortage will last longer because they are not increasing manufacturing capabilities this time.

Again, I am regurgitating this from memory from an article I read back when this shortage was already a few months in. I could be wrong or the article could be wrong. This is just what I remember. Hopefully I remember correctly.

I’m no expert. But I read that during the last ammo shortage, the ammo manufacturers bought new equipment, expanded their footprint and hired new employees. By the time they got everything up and running the ammo shortage was slowing and within a few months demand diminished and they caught up and prices went lower. They made this huge investment in equipment, footprint and employees and the shortage didn’t last long enough for them to recover their added expenses. And being gun shy this time, they are not making investments this time like they did the last time. So for that reason alone (if true) the ammo shortage will last longer because they are not increasing manufacturing capabilities this time.

Again, I am regurgitating this from memory from an article I read back when this shortage was already a few months in. I could be wrong or the article could be wrong. This is just what I remember. Hopefully I remember correctly.

So they should already have the equipkent, just gotta dust it off and add lube.

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I’m no expert. But I read that during the last ammo shortage, the ammo manufacturers bought new equipment, expanded their footprint and hired new employees. By the time they got everything up and running the ammo shortage was slowing and within a few months demand diminished and they caught up and prices went lower. They made this huge investment in equipment, footprint and employees and the shortage didn’t last long enough for them to recover their added expenses. And being gun shy this time, they are not making investments this time like they did the last time. So for that reason alone (if true) the ammo shortage will last longer because they are not increasing manufacturing capabilities this time.

Again, I am regurgitating this from memory from an article I read back when this shortage was already a few months in. I could be wrong or the article could be wrong. This is just what I remember. Hopefully I remember correctly.

I took a graduate degree class for an MBA that had us do computer-guided games.

One was to budget for R&D, expansion of capital resources in a rising market, dealing with additional labor costs, etc.

One mindset is to expand permanently, planning for an ongoing increase in demand and higher prices in each revenue period.

What seemed to make the most sense (and may apply now) was the temporary mindset.

Instead of buying or building more production, storage and support services space, it's probably better to rent another factory if available,

Instead of hiring more full-time employees to work the new rented factory, try working shifts in the existing space.

Instead of hiring more full-time employees to work shifts, offer overtime to existing employees, or hire part time workers for those jobs that don't take a full shift, like working in the shipping/receiving warehouse for incoming raw materials and outgoing shipment preparation (palletizing orders, verifying order accuracy, printing shipping labels, etc.).  Just need enough additional labor to handle the increase in shipping customers.  Most of the product will be going to distributors, so the number of customers won't be massive.

Instead of renting and equipping a new factory space, see if another ammo factory has surplus equipment and space to lease. 

When McDonald's opens a franchise in a new region, they hire bakers to make their breads, beef and poultry companies to provide meat, etc.  They don't own 100% of their production chain.  Ammo makers could farm out portions of their production, too.  As with McD's, the quality control would be an additional cost working with 3rd parties, but cheaper than capital investment to do it all yourself.

In summary, there are always options to ramp up production without sinking a chunk of revenue/profits into capital investment.  Labor is often the most expensive variable cost in any business.  Shift work for 24 hour production, part time and temp workers, and overtime are all ways to avoid the cost of bringing on new workers who may be laid off in the near future.

So they should already have the equipkent, just gotta dust it off and add lube.

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That’s what the wife keeps telling me! 

But seriously they have been hiring to man the machines they have. But I think they are gun shy to invest in more machines and space. At least that is the idea I got from the article.

I took a graduate degree class for an MBA that had us do computer-guided games.

One was to budget for R&D, expansion of capital resources in a rising market, dealing with additional labor costs, etc.

One mindset is to expand permanently, planning for an ongoing increase in demand and higher prices in each revenue period.

What seemed to make the most sense (and may apply now) was the temporary mindset.

Instead of buying or building more production, storage and support services space, it's probably better to rent another factory if available,

Instead of hiring more full-time employees to work the new rented factory, try working shifts in the existing space.

Instead of hiring more full-time employees to work shifts, offer overtime to existing employees, or hire part time workers for those jobs that don't take a full shift, like working in the shipping/receiving warehouse for incoming raw materials and outgoing shipment preparation (palletizing orders, verifying order accuracy, printing shipping labels, etc.).  Just need enough additional labor to handle the increase in shipping customers.  Most of the product will be going to distributors, so the number of customers won't be massive.

Instead of renting and equipping a new factory space, see if another ammo factory has surplus equipment and space to lease. 

When McDonald's opens a franchise in a new region, they hire bakers to make their breads, beef and poultry companies to provide meat, etc.  They don't own 100% of their production chain.  Ammo makers could farm out portions of their production, too.  As with McD's, the quality control would be an additional cost working with 3rd parties, but cheaper than capital investment to do it all yourself.

In summary, there are always options to ramp up production without sinking a chunk of revenue/profits into capital investment.  Labor is often the most expensive variable cost in any business.  Shift work for 24 hour production, part time and temp workers, and overtime are all ways to avoid the cost of bringing on new workers who may be laid off in the near future.

My original degree goal was in accounting. I had a dream of being a certified accountant with the possibility of becoming a CFO of a company. I found out after 2 years I hated accounting!   

I agree with your assessment. I’m not sure it can be applied 100% to the ammunition manufacture due to the specialization of equipment that needs to be purchased. Another thing the article went into is that the ammo manufacturers generally did not invest in the equipment that makes 22 ammo. The equipment that makes 22 ammo cannot make any other type of ammo due to specialization. Where the equipment that can make center fire ammo can make any type of center fire ammo. So the investment went into center fire ammo. Which makes sense as it took another year or so for 22 manufacture to catch up where center fire manufacture caught up pretty quickly. Based on this info (assuming I remember correctly) I think it will take at least a year or more for 22 to catch up after center fire ammo does.

I’m no expert. But I read that during the last ammo shortage, the ammo manufacturers bought new equipment, expanded their footprint and hired new employees. By the time they got everything up and running the ammo shortage was slowing and within a few months demand diminished and they caught up and prices went lower. They made this huge investment in equipment, footprint and employees and the shortage didn’t last long enough for them to recover their added expenses. And being gun shy this time, they are not making investments this time like they did the last time. So for that reason alone (if true) the ammo shortage will last longer because they are not increasing manufacturing capabilities this time.

Again, I am regurgitating this from memory from an article I read back when this shortage was already a few months in. I could be wrong or the article could be wrong. This is just what I remember. Hopefully I remember correctly.

I spent years in aerospace.  I too thought about business as a University major.
I stopped at Business Calculus and switched to STEM Calculus. Business stuff was
boring.

This is purely my opinion. If you want to be the very best at something,  you concentrate
on the product.  Not employees, not share values, not politics, not your own personal
wealth.  If you produce the best product, on time,  when people want it, and can ratchet things down
when things quiet down, you will beat everybody else.
The word I was taught is "Nimble".
In the real world things aren't linear.  Many businesses try to make it so.
Humans by nature want stability.  The best thing a business can do
is prepare for instability and train their workers and set up their systems
to adapt to Minima and Maxima.
But always focus on a product, that the customer wants.



 

My original degree goal was in accounting. I had a dream of being a certified accountant with the possibility of becoming a CFO of a company. I found out after 2 years I hated accounting!   

I agree with your assessment. I’m not sure it can be applied 100% to the ammunition manufacture due to the specialization of equipment that needs to be purchased. Another thing the article went into is that the ammo manufacturers generally did not invest in the equipment that makes 22 ammo. The equipment that makes 22 ammo cannot make any other type of ammo due to specialization. Where the equipment that can make center fire ammo can make any type of center fire ammo. So the investment went into center fire ammo. Which makes sense as it took another year or so for 22 manufacture to catch up where center fire manufacture caught up pretty quickly. Based on this info (assuming I remember correctly) I think it will take at least a year or more for 22 to catch up after center fire ammo does.

That's getting into the technical weeds.  All I have to say is, *IF* companies bought the machines to increase supplies during the last shortage, there may be those machines still sitting idle in storage somewhere, or at least not being 100% utilized due to being "gun shy" at ramping up to 150% production again.

While .22 ammo is a biggie, the other common calibers don't have the same technical limitations you listed for .22.

One thing in the video that I didn't consider before was the primer demand.  They can't sell primers that they need for ammunition production.  So reloaders take a backseat.  That should apply to all cartridge components, but I guess primers are the hardest part to batch out as quickly?

I spent years in aerospace.  I too thought about business as a University major.
I stopped at Business Calculus and switched to STEM Calculus. Business stuff was
boring.

This is purely my opinion. If you want to be the very best at something,  you concentrate
on the product.  Not employees, not share values, not politics, not your own personal
wealth.  If you produce the best product, on time,  when people want it, and can ratchet things down
when things quiet down, you will beat everybody else.
The word I was taught is "Nimble".
In the real world things aren't linear.  Many businesses try to make it so.
Humans by nature want stability.  The best thing a business can do
is prepare for instability and train their workers and set up their systems
to adapt to Minima and Maxima.
But always focus on a product, that the customer wants.

For me, in the beginning, the math aspect was the fun part. But after a while it became mundane as I was pretty much doing the same thing over and over.

When I changed careers and went into high tech I learned about being “Nimble”. I had a great boss at Cisco. He was/is VERY successful. He went on to become a Vice President. I left the company because he got promoted and had to move to San Jose. Everybody who came in after him was wholly inadequate for the position. While they were all nice people their business acumen was just awful. I also learned about how big business is done. The right way and the wrong way.

I found I preferred to work for small businesses as they are much more exciting and “Nimble”. Plus they usually are much more focussed on the customer needs. I had a good time in my 12 years in high tech. But as usual, I got bored with it rather easily.