countdown to- (Read 7139 times)

hvybarrels

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #80 on: March 10, 2026, 12:33:08 PM »
How is the original NYT headline (before they changed it) different from material support for terrorism?

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/cnn-does-propaganda-isis-inspired-gracie-mansion-attackers-then-deletes-tweet



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changemyoil66

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #81 on: March 10, 2026, 02:26:38 PM »
Somethign else interesting. When Trump took office and relaxed the regulations on oil, gas prices in HI didn't drop quickly.  In fact, it took about a year or more.  Some say it's because gas stations buy in advance and the prices agreed upon cannot change with the market.  So the stations paid for higher priced gas.

But yet, it took less than a week for the gas prices to increase due to the Iran attacks. 

Maybe there's a clause that prices can go up at any time for X reason, but cannot drop for X reason.

Can anyone provide input?

Flapp_Jackson

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #82 on: March 10, 2026, 04:43:29 PM »
Somethign else interesting. When Trump took office and relaxed the regulations on oil, gas prices in HI didn't drop quickly.  In fact, it took about a year or more.  Some say it's because gas stations buy in advance and the prices agreed upon cannot change with the market.  So the stations paid for higher priced gas.

But yet, it took less than a week for the gas prices to increase due to the Iran attacks. 

Maybe there's a clause that prices can go up at any time for X reason, but cannot drop for X reason.

Can anyone provide input?
Do some reading on the commodities markets and how prices are set for contracts based on a lot of variables, making them very risky investments -- lot of unknowns. 

trading oil futures usually follow a 30-day cycle.  Without even owning the oil. you can sell contracts to buyers such as refineries or oil/gas companies.  The price you negotiate in the future hedges the price against unexpected changes.  So, for example, if you offer to buy 1 billion barrels of crude sweet oil from me on April 15th at $90/bbl, you're protecting against the oil being more than $90 on the expiration date, and i'm speculating the price will be less than $90.  If it's less, I buy at whatever the market price is -- let's say $85.  That means i just made $5 per bbl profit x 1 billion bbls = $5B.  But, if the war in Iran causes a spike in prices, say $100/bbl, then the seller has to buy it at a $10/bbl loss, creating a $10B loss on 4/15. 

So, it's not that there is a massive amount of oil being purchased 3 months ahead of selling it at the pump.  The contracts allow trading of oil that has yet to be pumped out of the ground and shipped tp market.

Then there's the capitalistic concept of competition.  If the Middle East oil prices rise, oil from S. America or Japan will rise due to an increase in demand for their comparatively cheaper oil.  HI is more tied to Japan suppliers than the ME.

None of this would matter now if Biden hadn't canceled the pipeline projects Trump started in his first term.
« Last Edit: March 10, 2026, 11:25:04 PM by Flapp_Jackson »
The reasonable man adapts himself to the world;
the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself.
Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
-- George Bernard Shaw

hvybarrels

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #83 on: March 10, 2026, 05:35:35 PM »
None of this would matter now if Biden hadn't canceled the pipeline projects Trump started in his first term.

…and then burned through the strategic oil reserve in order to keep gas prices artificially low for an election
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Kalihi Uka

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Re: countdown to-
« Reply #84 on: March 10, 2026, 07:09:35 PM »
…and then burned through the strategic oil reserve in order to keep gas prices artificially low for an election
Everyday

a new day to fuck the country

in a new way

yet there they all are

walking free

Just always remember, you are not the insane one
My ankle monitor? It’s right there at home where it belongs

changemyoil66

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #85 on: March 21, 2026, 04:55:59 PM »
Interesting few days.

Iran nuke enrichment destroyed, iran claims the facility make 60% uranium grade. For power, 2-3% is all thats needed. For weapons, over 20%. Some claimed this didnt exist (Kent).

Irans missile striked far away at a US/UK base (diego garcia).  They showed they have the capability to strike as far as russia, the UK, etc....of which they claimed they couldnt do.

Trump was right again.



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changemyoil66

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #86 on: March 24, 2026, 12:44:48 PM »
I've had multiple fake news headlines pop up saying "Trump blames Hegseth for the Iran war".  They even post a vid of Trump speaking about this.  I'm going to assume most did't watch the vid, but just read the headline because no where in the vid does he "blame" Hegseth. What he does say is that Hegseth was the 1st to recommand the attacks.

hvybarrels

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #87 on: March 24, 2026, 02:20:20 PM »
We are going to have some severe supply shortages soon.

Also I don’t think people will want to vacation here when plane tickets cost $5k

This was going to happen one way or another of course, but at least there is some hope with the Trump version of default vs total surrender to the CCP
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changemyoil66

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #88 on: March 25, 2026, 07:18:46 AM »
We are going to have some severe supply shortages soon.

Also I don’t think people will want to vacation here when plane tickets cost $5k

This was going to happen one way or another of course, but at least there is some hope with the Trump version of default vs total surrender to the CCP

Maybe this would loosen regulations so we can drill more.  The US has tons of oil on and off shore.  But regulations/laws prevent the drillig.  We have enough oil that we don't need to buy any from anyone else.

hvybarrels

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #89 on: March 25, 2026, 11:04:37 AM »
We have enough oil that we don't need to buy any from anyone else.

It's a popular refrain but it's not true. All the easily recoverable oil is gone, leaving the low quality stuff which is really difficult to get out of the ground. 
Invading Venezuela was necessary to secure a reliable supply for the US before destroying the market for everyone else.
I have to admire Trump for his audacity, but we still have a lot of pain to go through before the plan starts bearing fruit.
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changemyoil66

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #90 on: March 25, 2026, 03:14:32 PM »
It's a popular refrain but it's not true. All the easily recoverable oil is gone, leaving the low quality stuff which is really difficult to get out of the ground. 
Invading Venezuela was necessary to secure a reliable supply for the US before destroying the market for everyone else.
I have to admire Trump for his audacity, but we still have a lot of pain to go through before the plan starts bearing fruit.

My source is I was playing craps at Mirage some years ago with some offshore oil drillers.  They each bought in about $8K or so and the reason is when they're on the rig, they make good money and can't spend it on anything.  So they come to Vegas when back.  I mean, they could be wrong. 

eyeeatingfish

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #91 on: April 03, 2026, 08:42:16 PM »
getting rid of dictator is bad..

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2026/03/01/war-choice-hawaii-delegation-condemns-military-action-iran-without-congressional-authorization/

It isn't the removal of the dictator that is the problem, it is the extrajudicial nature of it. If the drug dealer on the corner were to die it would be great for society, doesn't mean we should embrace cops summarily executing them.

Plus there are all the follow up issues of what is and may follow all of this. The dictator definitely had it coming but will we actually see something better replace him or will we have a breakdown into civil war and the next ISIS?

macsak

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #92 on: April 03, 2026, 08:59:40 PM »
over one month...

Iran's retaliation does not lie in their now devastated military.

Remember, a stupid idiot opened the borders wide open for 4 years..........(while giving Iran money).

QUIETShooter

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #93 on: April 03, 2026, 10:02:52 PM »
Iran's retaliation does not lie in their now devastated military.

Remember, a stupid idiot opened the borders wide open for 4 years..........(while giving Iran money).

over one month...



And I honestly hope it stays that way.  I'm concerned that if it gets to the point where we start destroying civilian infrastructure that impacts residents that have little or no military value, Iran will do the same, and not only to their Gulf Neighbors....... :shake:

Sometimes you gotta know when to save your bullets.

ren

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #94 on: April 03, 2026, 10:05:42 PM »
$8 per gallon...
Deeds Not Words

changemyoil66

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #95 on: April 06, 2026, 08:22:33 AM »
It's been weeks now and what I've noticed.  Iranian information being released by their military is like CNN and like as they're mostly fake news, aka wrong.

Examples:
AI generated pics of: Recently they claimed to captured the missing F15 "pilot", which was AI generated as his chute was next to the downed F15. A downed B2 that had some Iranian solders standing next to it and the size is way off.  Pics of special forces being captured.
Claims of more aircraft being shot down
Claim of US carrier being destroyed/hit
Many more, but can't remember.

What is interesting is that for the recently resuced pilot, there were Iranian citizens trying to block the roads to prevent their military to search for the guy.

For those who are interested in who resuces downed pilots, the Discover Channel had a good series on PJ's (Para Rescue who do this).  But keep in mind this was during OIF (in A-stan) so it's more about medical than downed pilots.  But the military channel had a docu some years ago about O'Grady who was resuced decades ago.

rpoL98

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #96 on: April 06, 2026, 02:58:51 PM »

changemyoil66

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #97 on: April 07, 2026, 08:09:20 AM »


Iran media and our fake news are very similar. Always finding something to bash Trump on.  IMO, equipment destroyed to save an american pilot is worth it.

QUIETShooter

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #98 on: April 07, 2026, 01:13:32 PM »
Trumps "final"? ultimatum to Iran is about 45 minutes from now.......
Sometimes you gotta know when to save your bullets.

macsak

Re: countdown to-
« Reply #99 on: April 07, 2026, 01:26:15 PM »
trump just announced on truth social that iran agreed to open strait
2 week ceasefire...

Trumps "final"? ultimatum to Iran is about 45 minutes from now.......