Harvey Gerwig made the point that perhaps it was someone at Queensgate (across the highway from Sandy's) firing off a round.  Or maybe Kalama Valley?

Not me, move Big Island three years ago.................

It wasn't a bullet. It was a falling pod from a monkey pod tree. Ever had a pod fall on the roof of your car? Friggin thing sounds like a bullet going through the roof.

Distance is a little over a mile straight line, so it is possible.  I wouldn't doubt it.  If you shoot from the left side of the rifle range at the 300yd targets on the right, that would put sandy beach in the line of fire.

According to the balistic tables, a 223 would have to be shot at a 6 degrees angle, and will end up at 425fps with as much energy as a magnum air rifle.

A 3006 would have to be shot at a 2 degree angle, and will end up at 850fps with as much energy as a .38 special.

Distance is a little over a mile straight line, so it is possible.  I wouldn't doubt it.  If you shoot from the left side of the rifle range at the 300yd targets on the right, that would put sandy beach in the line of fire.

According to the balistic tables, a 223 would have to be shot at a 6 degrees angle, and will end up at 425fps with as much energy as a magnum air rifle.

A 3006 would have to be shot at a 2 degree angle, and will end up at 850fps with as much energy as a .38 special.

A 2 degree angle?  That's gotta be a typo, right? 

A 2 degree angle?  That's gotta be a typo, right?

Nope, 131 MOA /60 = 2.18 degrees.  Calculated using 178gr bullets.

Distance is a little over a mile straight line, so it is possible.  I wouldn't doubt it. If you shoot from the left side of the rifle range at the 300yd targets on the right, that would put sandy beach in the line of fire.

According to the balistic tables, a 223 would have to be shot at a 6 degrees angle, and will end up at 425fps with as much energy as a magnum air rifle.

A 3006 would have to be shot at a 2 degree angle, and will end up at 850fps with as much energy as a .38 special.

I disagree.  Google map Kokohead and use a straight edge.  You have to aim alongside the mountain there in order to get a line to Sandy's.  You're going to be way off the 300 yd plates.  A more realistic setup is on the right side of the range in order to help clear the side of the mountain.  In either case you are aiming so off target that people will know when you discharge the rifle that something really bad has just happened.

Nope, 131 MOA /60 = 2.18 degrees.  Calculated using 178gr bullets.

I'm assuming 0 degrees is horizontal, yes?  In either case, that makes no sense in this situation.  It's not enough elevation to clear the mountain, not sure it's enough to clear the berm!

I disagree.  Google map Kokohead and use a straight edge.  You have to aim alongside the mountain there in order to get a line to Sandy's.  You're going to be way off the 300 yd plates.  A more realistic setup is on the right side of the range in order to help clear the side of the mountain.  In either case you are aiming so off target that people will know when you discharge the rifle that something really bad has just happened.

Depends on the caliber, if it's like a 30-30 you'd have to shoot it at a higher angle to arch it over.  A 30-06 might clear the mountain if shot higher angle and her car was located farther past sandy beach.  I could compute the angles when I go to koko head on saturday.  Shooting at the 300yd plates line up on my map with sandy's, missing most of koko head.  Of course it could just be someone accidentally shooting their rifle in the air at any angle anyplace on the range too.  To me launching a bullet over to sandy's probably happens often cause it's easy to do, just the odds of hitting something or someone is remote.

I do think the news did an admirable job of balancing their approach to this.  ANd, according to Google Earth, from the right side of the rifle range to the nearest point of Sandy's is indeed 5500 feet. 

Now, as I sit and stare at this, it strikes me that the action bays are even more likely points of origin.  If this happened on Memorial Day, those bays should have been closed, so a lone person or two could easily have been over there, unsupervised, and done something stupid.  Which would account for the lack of witnesses.

If it is a bullet (and I'm saying if), I don't understand why people are so quick to say "No way!" about it coming from the range.  There's a range within range, and people were there shooting.  It would be like a nuclear power plant saying "that's not OUR radioactive waste" in a well a mile away.  Come on, really?  Take a little responsibility!

I don't think it was a 30-06, it would've gone completely through the roof and the door.  Looking at the photos, it looks like damage a magnum powered air rifle could do along with the shooting angle, I'd say it was a 223, or high powered handgun like a 44 magnum.

Also possible someone just accidentally shot it at a high angle, just look at all the holes in the wood awning at the pistol range.

Good report. Didn't slam the range hard like it could have.

Still. Spooky.

Depends on the caliber, if it's like a 30-30 you'd have to shoot it at a higher angle to arch it over.  A 30-06 might clear the mountain if shot higher angle and her car was located farther past sandy beach.  I could compute the angles when I go to koko head on saturday.  Shooting at the 300yd plates line up on my map with sandy's, missing most of koko head.  Of course it could just be someone accidentally shooting their rifle in the air at any angle anyplace on the range too.  To me launching a bullet over to sandy's probably happens often cause it's easy to do, just the odds of hitting something or someone is remote.

Sorry guys, this is the best I can do for now.  I set the shoot point on the far left side of the rifle range.  I estimated where the 300 yd plates are, but if you look at the berm between the rifle and silhouette side you can see it's about there.........at least close enough it won't make that much of a difference.

So the line from the far left of the rifle range to the 300 yd plates means you need to shoot over the ridge of the crater.  You do that and you're going to get noticed immediately.  It is unreasonable to think anyone who does so would go un-noticed as it is well documented how busy the range is.

I have also drawn a separate line that I believe the shot would have had to have followed from the rifle range in order to travel to the Sandys parking areas.  This shot would be even more difficult for someone to hide as the angle is even more extreme.  While the angle of inclination does need to be as much as the one to the 300 yard targets you are still required to elevate quite severely to clear the side slope of the crater.

While I do agree it's possible to put a round down there, I just think it's highly improbable that it could be done at the date and time that it was alleged to have happened.  There are just way too many people at Kokohead for someone not to have noticed................anywhoooo, it would be great if you can take some measurements so we can throw that into your ballistics program.

After reading this decided to measure the distance on google map like everyone else.  Its over 7000 feet to kite flying area at sandys.  Seems like it would have to be a kinda extreme angle from horizontal to get it over the hill and all the way to sandys.  Now kinda want to see what the lady turns in after she fixes her roof.  Kinda feel for her too because if it was a bullet i would be worried too if my children were in the car when it hit.

We have yet to see the projectile. The woman was quick to blame the range though.

We have yet to see the projectile. The woman was quick to blame the range though.

sounded to me that the police were quick to blame the range.

sounded to me that the police were quick to blame the range.

I wonder how many LEOs were at the range training this particular day.

sounded to me that the police were quick to blame the range.

"Sheffield believes the bullet came from the Koko Head shooting range but experts we spoke to say that's nearly impossible."

"Sheffield believes the bullet came from the Koko Head shooting range but experts we spoke to say that's nearly impossible."

"The police said it's a bullet hole, most likely a bullet hole.  After I heard that I was so scared," said Sheffield.

That was the sentence before the one you cherry-picked.

A.D....?

I ran estimates of trajectory through a balistic table and google earth (amazing what it can do).  Here it is:

1.  The red mark shows the shooters view from the middle of the rifle range to Sandy Beach parking lot, about 7000ft.  The start of the sand beach is about 5500ft.


2.  This is the path from the picture before.  The bullet path doesn't need to go over the crater, it just goes along the side.  Point A at about 1500 feet it hits the front of the crater at 185ft high (from shooter level).  Point B at about 3400 ft it hits the highest point of 245ft.  If shooting more on the left side, the crater will be higher.  Shooting from the right side, crater will be lower.  These are the two distances and heights the bullets have to clear, and third point is the bullet has to reach sandy beach with enough energy to penetrate the top of the car roof, but not penetrate completely.


3.  Performing the calculations, from shooter level, the bullet needs 6.78 degrees of elevation, or 406 MOA to clear the first point A


4.  My ballistic program maxed out at 2000 yards, good enough.  9mm can't make it to 2000 yards so I'll rule medium powered handgun cartridges out.  I started out with 44 magnum.  It clears point A with 232 feet of elevation.  At Point B it clears with 372 feet of elevation.  At point C it has 81Ft/lbs of energy, about the same as 22lr out of a pistol.  I think this could completely penetrate the car roof, but there is a chance it may not if it hits a support beam or something inside the roof.


5.  Next is a 223 caliber M193 55gr ammo.  It doesn't clear point A with 145ft of elevation (40 ft too low).  However if fired from the right side of the rifle range, it might clear a lower part.  Or they might shoot the high angle which might clear (my program doesn't calculate those).  It clears point B with no problem and has 21ft/lbs of energy at point C, about the same as a magnum powered air rifle.  Probably enough to go through one side of the roof and get stuck inside.  M193 max range is a little over 2000 yards.  Maybe M855 62gr is more likely as it travels a bit farther.


6.  Next is 30-06 178gr Amax.  At point A it doesn't clear with only 52 ft of elevation.  However it could be shot at the high angle (my program doesn't calculate those) to clear point A and B.  Firing at the low angle, point C the bullet has 289ft/lbs of energy which is like a 38 special and would most likely penetrate the car roof and door, so it would have too much power.  If shot at the high angle (maybe 30 degrees up?), bullet would be falling a little faster than terminal velocity which I feel could penetrate one side of the roof, and stopped by hitting something like a support beam. 


Therefore I think it could be a high powered handgun round fire up in the air from the pistol or silhouette side (look at all the bullet holes in the pistol range awning), a 223 type rifle fire from the right side of the rifle range, or high powered rifle like a 30-06 shot at a high angle up into the sky.  All of these scenarios probably mean a negligent discharge by a shooter since they would have to be way off target.  Also probably a left handed since they tend to face the gun to the right side.  Moral of the story?  Make sure the guys around you have good habits, muzzle awareness,  and trigger discipline or else someones going to get shot accidentally one day.