Could the U.S. Lose a War with China Over Taiwan?

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/could-us-lose-war-china-over-taiwan-195686

Interesting article. 

I personally think we couldn't lose a war but not really win either.  We would never land invade china.  We could only hope to destroy their air and naval abilities and settle with them.

I don't think we will. Hearts and minds will be a huge factor. Compare this to WW2 where every Japanese citizen would want to fight off the invading ally armies. 1 reason why we dropped the bomb.

The regular Chinese citizens don't think to fondly of the CCP.  So if they ask/force them to fight, maybe they won't.  And then CCP has taken firearms away, so unless they plan to hand out firearms and supporting supplies across their nation, don't count on it.  Which would also be impacted cause that's what the US does, is target supplies and supply chains.

Then add in China has never won a war.in recent military technology/history (ie smokelesss powder and on).

So psyops would also be very important.  Dropping fliers over cities once we have air superiority. 

And once at war with China, might as well invade N.Korea next.

China's greatest strength is indirect warfare. Like cyber,biological and supplies.  Like the chip shortage we have now and other items that are made in China. It's not like someone was calling for jobs to come back to America...Oh wait, Trump did say this and the DNC/liberals called him crazy.

I don't think we will. Hearts and minds will be a huge factor. Compare this to WW2 where every Japanese citizen would want to fight off the invading ally armies. 1 reason why we dropped the bomb.

The regular Chinese citizens don't think to fondly of the CCP.  So if they ask/force them to fight, maybe they won't.  And then CCP has taken firearms away, so unless they plan to hand out firearms and supporting supplies across their nation, don't count on it.  Which would also be impacted cause that's what the US does, is target supplies and supply chains.

Then add in China has never won a war.in recent military technology/history (ie smokelesss powder and on).

So psyops would also be very important.  Dropping fliers over cities once we have air superiority. 

And once at war with China, might as well invade N.Korea next.

China's greatest strength is indirect warfare. Like cyber,biological and supplies.  Like the chip shortage we have now and other items that are made in China. It's not like someone was calling for jobs to come back to America...Oh wait, Trump did say this and the DNC/liberals called him crazy.

All good points. But what about the premise of the article that basically states that China could win the war and the war could be over before we could move in significant assets to fight China with?

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t necessarily agree with the article but I thought the premise was a fair one and warranted some discussion.

All good points. But what about the premise of the article that basically states that China could win the war and the war could be over before we could move in significant assets to fight China with?

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t necessarily agree with the article but I thought the premise was a fair one and warranted some discussion.

I don't think the likely scenario would be China attacking Taiwan militarily so quickly that the US didn't have time to deploy assets to the region.

It would be like in the past.  Civil unrest in Taiwan, followed by a police response from China.  If things escalate, it would be in increments.  China isn't going to start bombing or killing people right away.  The US has contingency plans for everything and every place.  If we see a scenario shaping up into something we should deploy into, we'll be there before the fireworks start.

"It's just an exercise that the US had planned for months.  China invading Taiwan at this time was a coincidence."

I don't think the likely scenario would be China attacking Taiwan militarily so quickly that the US didn't have time to deploy assets to the region.

It would be like in the past.  Civil unrest in Taiwan, followed by a police response from China.  If things escalate, it would be in increments.  China isn't going to start bombing or killing people right away.  The US has contingency plans for everything and every place.  If we see a scenario shaping up into something we should deploy into, we'll be there before the fireworks start.

"It's just an exercise that the US had planned for months.  China invading Taiwan at this time was a coincidence."

^^This. Much is what we saw with HK. Civil unrest, followed by a police response from China. There were about 100K people in the streets and of all ages, grandma's and young kids too.  Then COVID hit and the protest all stopped cold turkey.  So what benefit does China have from unleashing a virus...we covered this previously. IDK if you were around or not, LMK if you want my tinfoil cliff notes.  They have slowly gotten back on track, but not like how it was before.  And the interesting part is many HK people were already wearing P100 rated mask due to the tear gas being used.  So stops Covid and tear gas.

There's a good documentary about Joshua Wong about the entire thing.  It was on Netflix precovid. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6333072/

My in-laws were able to get out of HK just before the airport was taken over to attend a funeral in Taiwan (wife's grandma 2019). I asked them what it's like, and their response was if it wasn't for the funeral, they would be in the streets too. They're in their late 60's.  I asked what about going back home, they didn't know. All they knew is they have a return ticket and so far the flight isn't cancelled.

Sorry off topic, but to answer your question in more detail, we have the most mobile military in the world. So 1st would be guided munitions either by plane, missiles, or unmanned.  Then while the rest of our army gets ready, this should have taken care much of the factories and highest risk targets.  If need be, the 75th can deploy anywhere in the world within 72 hours.  And they would have air support.  The question is where would they deploy?  In Taiwan, Japan, China, S. Korea?

To see an advanced war, would bring huge casualties on both sides.  When we went into Iraq, their air power was minimal. A-stan, pretty much zero.  Going off topic again, but in relation to guided missiles, no FOB would be safe.  Which would make them obsolete.

There's a good documentary about Joshua Wong about the entire thing.  It was on Netflix precovid. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt6333072/

Joshua Wong?  The CIA's paid puppet stooge?   

...we have the most mobile military in the world. So 1st would be guided munitions either by plane, missiles, or unmanned.  Then while the rest of our army gets ready, this should have taken care much of the factories and highest risk targets.  If need be, the 75th can deploy anywhere in the world within 72 hours.  And they would have air support.  The question is where would they deploy?  In Taiwan, Japan, China, S. Korea?

You really think China will just sit and absorb the conventional bombing by the US empire?  Such 20th century nonsense at its worst.

Should the US empire dare do something so foolish, as it might actually do so, given the trajectory of collapse its currently on, it will only backfire.  For starters, such a move is WWIII and good luck keeping nuclear weapons out of it.  Secondly, the economic and financial ramifications, of such a suicidal move, would crash the already dying US and global economy overnight and that is before China's dumping the US dollar in asymmetric retaliation.  Thirdly, China would release all of its hypersonic and conventional cruise missiles and destroy all US imperial assets located in Asia.  Fourthly, do you really think Russia will just sit back and watch all this happening?  Russia will assist China, as it did during the Korea War.  Finally, luckily for China, they do not need to invade the continental US, since the chaos and turmoil caused the economic and financial crash will unleash hell on the streets in the US that will result in the Balkanization, as I often stated earlier in numerous posts.

The regular Chinese citizens don't think to fondly of the CCP.  So if they ask/force them to fight, maybe they won't.  And then CCP has taken firearms away, so unless they plan to hand out firearms and supporting supplies across their nation, don't count on it.  Which would also be impacted cause that's what the US does, is target supplies and supply chains.

You apparently don't understand Chinese people in China.  You insult them as indirectly being cowards that will roll over and kneel before the US empire.  They will always have a supply of patriots to die for their Motherland.

You also forget the NUMBER #1 reason for China's success is their central government.  Yes, it was the Communist Party of China that has led them to both economically and militarily challenge and inevitably supersede US imperial domination of the planet.

Then add in China has never won a war.in recent military technology/history (ie smokelesss powder and on).

Study your history: Korean War

So psyops would also be very important.  Dropping fliers over cities once we have air superiority. 

I'm sorry, there will be none to distribute, since China did not fulfil printing that leaflet order.

And once at war with China, might as well invade N.Korea next.

Dreaming...

Oops, I forgot about any allies who would jump in.

You apparently don't understand Chinese people in China.  You insult them as indirectly being cowards that will roll over and kneel before the US empire.  They will always have a supply of patriots to die for their Motherland.

What I was leaning toward was between the CCP who takes away their freedoms and us, they should go with us.  If I indirectly called them cowards, then that is my mistake. They are not cowards.

There is a difference between the Chinese people and the CCP is what I'm getting at.

I'm sorry, there will be none to distribute, since China did not fulfil printing that leaflet order.

This is actually funny.

What I was leaning toward was between the CCP who takes away their freedoms and us, they should go with us.  If I indirectly called them cowards, then that is my mistake. They are not cowards.

There is a difference between the Chinese people and the CCP is what I'm getting at.

Your point is correct; but do not assume the people of China hate their government.  As I posted earlier, China's historical economic rise was achieved by the CCP and more importantly via peaceful means, not like most Western powers via overthrows and/or imperial wars of aggression.

This is actually funny.

It was meant to be ironically funny, as to show which nation is responsible for producing the majority of things on this planet.

Oops, I forgot about any allies who would jump in.

Excellent point.

However, remember, all of the nations that the US empire screwed over the years will all fight back against US domination at the same time, as what happened to Roman empire, which ultimately led to their final downfall.

Kuleana will personally fight for china and assure their victory  (sarcasm)

Communism sucks and will never win.  We have more allies,  technology etc.  When facing real issues China would collapse.  They have no oil,  with no exports their economy will fall to pieces.  They have so many people to feed.