Housing wealth is setting new records for both owners and sellers

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/03/housing-wealth-is-setting-new-records-for-both-owners-and-sellers.html

2006 all over again

2006 all over again

Not saying you are wrong at all. I think it will be a little more localized than last time. Or some areas will crash a lot sooner than others. Or maybe some areas will crash and crash hard while other areas just go into a market slowdown. For instance Idaho and Salt Lake City seem to be on the verge of a crash already. Buyers are becoming less prominent while inventory levels are increasing. But some suburbs of Salt Lake like Smithville are still in the position of not having enough inventory and having an over abundance of buyers. The home builders there are selling just the lots before they start building the homes in a lottery type system. Phoenix is the same way. Right now Phoenix still does not have enough inventory for the amount of Californians that are buying there. Most of the people moving there are moving there with jobs. And while Phoenix is still on fire, now areas outside of Phoenix and to the east such as Mesa and now the San Tan Valley are starting to see a huge influx of buyers. And there is not enough inventory. San Tan Valley is where a lot of the new homes are being built. Also, San Tan is too far to drive to Phoenix for work. So the big job hub for San Tan is Mesa. Mesa is growing at a tremendous rate right now. Everything is still exploding out in Phoenix and surrounding areas. Hell, it is exploding where I live up here in Northern AZ. Houses are selling faster than they can be built up here right now. But I predict this area where I live will be one of the areas that crashes hard when it does because we don’t have the jobs to support all the new homes being built.

So, yes I agree it will turn into a 2006 all over again, but with some exceptions. And expect to see some areas crash soon while others continue to sizzle. At least for a while. As long as Californians continue to escape the state we are going to see housing continue to be unrealistic. Maybe every area will eventually crash and crash hard and who knows it could end up worse than 2006. All I can say is you are right we are heading for another real estate crash. It may be a little different this time tho.

The Great Reset. You will own nothing and Iike it.

https://strangesounds.org/2021/07/blackrock-is-buying-up-us-homes-like-no-tomorrow-real-estate-market-housing.html

Prices are crazy right now,  & even with a down turn, well I hope it turns down way more then it probably will in Hawaii

Prices are crazy right now,  & even with a down turn, well I hope it turns down way more then it probably will in Hawaii

I don’t want to get your hopes up because I don’t know the Hawaii market well enough any more to speak to it. But for your sake I hope it does come down enough for you to be able to afford a home.

I see the house I sold not quite 2 years ago has gone up over $200k. That’s is crazy.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/92.dash.7049-Elele-St-.num.22-Kapolei,-HI-96707_rb/63025771_zpid/

“Things are different this time”

Reality:

Too crazy.
The median price of a house on the Big Island is roughly the same as the median price of a house on the mainland.
340K range.
But how can anyone on the BI afford a house when the wages here suck?
No wonder all the kids are leaving.
Bubble popping, yes, that will happen, but even "underwater" homes are a better
place to live and far better than renting
for stable, settled populations.
if you take the "long view" on your investment in your home.
 

Hawaii’s market will continue to go up. Short of a depression there is no mechanism that will cause Hawaiis market to plummet. Hawaiis inventory is simply to low for the amount of buyers coming in. My wife and I have been looking to upgrade for over a year now, it is impossible to compete with rich out of state buyers. You’d basically need to convince local sellers to lose out on tens of thousands of dollars just so they can sell to a local, that ain’t happening.

Short of a depression…

We’re in a depression. They just haven’t officially announced it yet.

I don’t want to get your hopes up because I don’t know the Hawaii market well enough any more to speak to it. But for your sake I hope it does come down enough for you to be able to afford a home.

I see the house I sold not quite 2 years ago has gone up over $200k. That’s is crazy.

https://www.zillow.com/homes/92.dash.7049-Elele-St-.num.22-Kapolei,-HI-96707_rb/63025771_zpid/

Dang that's crazy. 
Yes property here will always hold its value

Yes property here will always hold its value

That's a slogan people repeat to themselves in order to ignore the shaky position they are in. It's not based on anything but blind faith. I pity the young families who bought in recently at what appears to be the top of the market and will soon find themselves underwater. We are looking at multiple cascading crises, and this is the time to get out of debt as quickly and efficiently as possible. Brandon is in the drivers seat and this economic bus has already gone over the guard rails. Once the panic starts it's going to be worse than 1938.

That's a slogan people repeat to themselves in order to ignore the shaky position they are in. It's not based on anything but blind faith. I pity the young families who bought in recently at what appears to be the top of the market and will soon find themselves underwater. We are looking at multiple cascading crises, and this is the time to get out of debt as quickly and efficiently as possible. Brandon is in the drivers seat and this economic bus has already gone over the guard rails. Once the panic starts it's going to be worse than 1938.

Especially after the bank sends you tax forms regarding your "income" on your upside down mortgage.