This video is a good analysis of why the elections went so wrong. Should've come out a year ago.
It's about how Trump didn't keep his promises of no new wars, ability to buy a home, better economy, etc and that groups that swung Trump in 2024, young voters and hispanics, drastically swung Democrat. Trump didn't listen to the people's needs like he successfully did in his first term. Growing the economy and lowering the cost of living should've been the main focus for Trump, but instead it was the Iran war, reflecting pool, ballroom, Gulf of America, etc that showed Trump wasn't listening to what people needed. Most people side with him on a lot of the social issues and immigration crackdown, but the state of the economy eclipses those greatly.
The war and resulting economic dive were the biggest factors. Economy is always by far the biggest decider of elections. I do business research and talk to hundreds of business owners every month. They all put inflation problems above everything else. The tax cuts don't offset the inflation. Both in the cost of products and equipment that squeezes their margins and expenses, and also affecting their customers ability to buy their products and services. Even hard core Trump supporters have big gripes about that.
Then there is the chaos. Too many things happening too quickly. Most people agree there should be a lot of government cuts, but instantly firing workers is not a good look. The immigration crackdown is widely supported, however the way it was done was unpopular. I think bombing the Iran nuclear sites was justified, however the war didn't have to happen before the midterms and it was bungled. Trump would get the credit if it was successful, however he also gets the blame if it fails.