So there's this "report" floating around from the Violence Policy Center.  Maybe you've seen it?  There are three pages of "discussion" on it over in Legal & Activism.  And my anti-gun friends have been posting it on Facebook.  So, I did what I do, and set out to look at it for myself. 

I went to the FBI, and pulled data on murders by firearms per state.  But that was just raw numbers, not rates.  So, I went to the US Census and pulled population per state.  Both for 2013. 

Then I did a little dividing.

The numbers I came up with were radically different from the VPC report.  RADICALLY different.  But they were also radically different from reports I found on pro gun sites.  And radically different from a report I found on Wikipedia.  And, allow me to reiterate, RADICALLY different. 

But it's late, and my brain is fuzzy, and I'm questioning my basic math skills.  Because I think I have two findings.
#1 - Gun laws are irrelevant.  The safest and most dangerous states to live in all have F ratings from the Brady Campaign.  The states with A ratings are in the middle of the pack.
#2 - the murder rates for firearms are hella higher than anyone is claiming.

I believe #1, but I don't believe #2.  If the rates are what my math says, Brady should be trumpeting them in the streets.  I simply HAVE to be doing something wrong.  42 murders committed by firearms per 100,000?  That's over twice what VPC is claiming! 

So, please, someone help my addled brain.  For a state where total population = P, and total number of murders committed by firearms = M, what's the formula to get deaths per 100,000?  I'm using M/P*100,000. 

mudapHokahz

M/(P/100,000) maybe.

I think you have the right formula, Tom.

Can you post the figures you used and the link where you found them? 

Maybe you aren't reading the stats right (values shown in thousands of people?  ten thousand?)??

Let's use P=5,000,000 and M=200. 

M/P*100,000
M/P = 200/5,000,000 = .00004, which would be the rate per person.  Multiply by 100,000, and we get 4.  So 4 per 100,000.  But is that right? 

M/(P/100,000)
In 5,000,000 people, there are 50 units of 100,000 (P/100,000 = 5,000,000/100,000 = 50).  So, if we get 200 deaths per 50 units, then M/(P/100,000) = 200/50 = 4 deaths per 100,000.  Again.

How the fuck can I get the same answer if I multiply by 100,000 one time, and divide by 100,000 the other? 

I think you have the right formula, Tom.

Can you post the figures you used and the link where you found them? 

Maybe you aren't reading the stats right (values shown in thousands of people?  ten thousand?)??

The VPC chart is labeled "deaths per 100,000."  And I remember seeing that rate used when I've researched other aspects of this in the past, I think from the CDC.  I want to compare apples with apples.

The numbers from the FBI and Census are pretty straightforward, just aggregate counts.  No rates or percentages.  But maybe I'm just too tired to see it.  But some of the states, by my numbers, match some of the states in analyses from other websites, which makes it more frustrating.  I believe that both sides lie, but I can't believe that neither side is using numbers that are more to their advantage (assuming my system is accurate)

The VPC chart is labeled "deaths per 100,000."  And I remember seeing that rate used when I've researched other aspects of this in the past, I think from the CDC.  I want to compare apples with apples.

The numbers from the FBI and Census are pretty straightforward, just aggregate counts.  No rates or percentages.  But maybe I'm just too tired to see it.  But some of the states, by my numbers, match some of the states in analyses from other websites, which makes it more frustrating.  I believe that both sides lie, but I can't believe that neither side is using numbers that are more to their advantage (assuming my system is accurate)

FBI UCR also has the data per capita.

John Lott commented on the VPC's numbers.

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/02/16/lets-not-be-quick-to-believe-gun-control-rhetoric/

Not Lott, but another analysis...

http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2015/02/17/nyt-claims-concealed-carry-holders-are-bad-guys-with-guns/

pretty sure VPC is adding in suicides and accidents.