Its been around 25 years since the .40 S&W Cartridge was introduced. Back then it was supposed to be a good compromise between the 9mm and .45 ACP. The 9mm was considered somewhat ineffective and the .45 was a large cartridge that created large frame guns which small hands had a problem with. Combine this with the .45's low capacity, the .40 seemed like the perfect cartridge. The FBI changed to the .40 as did numerous law enforcement agencies across the country. The reason the .40 became popular is because 25 years ago the bullet technology was not great and the 9mm did not perform well. It had a hard time passing the FBI tests. With the advent of bullet technology getting better and the 9mm now performs as well as the .40 and .45 bullets. The 9mm cartridges manufactured today readily and handily passes the FBI suite of tests. Also, it seems that having a higher capacity is very important to the numerous law enforcement agencies. This includes the FBI which is going to (or is in the process of or already has) go back to the 9mm cartridge. With a good number of those same law enforcement agencies returning to the 9mm, does this mean the .40 S&W cartridge is dead?

I personally never jumped on the .40 bandwagon as I am more of a revolver fan. None of my close friends have a .40 handgun and don't load for it. So is the .40 dying? Is it dead? How long do you think it will hang on? Do you think it will ever become extinct?

I have the 41ae, 10mm, and 40sw , all of which I shoot. However, I tend to shoot 9mm more because the cost of 40 ammo is too cost prohibitive. It is the only reason i shoot more 9 than .40 cal.


41ae is dead and finding brass is difficult or expensive since only a few manufacture jump on the band wagon.  10mm will soon be DOA as well. 40 on the other hand should still be around since many manumufacture produced then, with  of thousands of surplus LEO turn ins firearms and ammo.

A lot of guys really like the .40.

And with conversion barrels, a bunch of .40's can be be converted back and forth with 9mm. (glock, Springfield xd, xdm etc..)  Can't convert a 9mm to .40.

I think the .40's gonna stick around.

When the .40 S&W was introduced, I gave it 5 years.  I just didn't see the need for an intermediate round like the .40, and didn't think it would find favor anywhere except with people who just have to buy the new thing. 

Not my best prediction.

Hard to say what the future holds, but I still think the .40 is a flash in the pan.  A long-lasting flash in the pan, but a passing fad nonetheless.  10ga, 16ga, and 28ga were all stunningly popular rounds in their time.  The advances that were applied to 12ga and 20ga could easily have been applied to these others, but the marketplace spoke. 

Things different from island to island imo. You talk about capacity but in hawaii if its a 9mm or a 40s&w your still pretty much stuck with 10rds. Personally on maui the price difference on 9mm and 40 s&w is not much of a price difference. So id rather shoot a bigger cartridge for a lil more cost. Been shopping around on oahu for 9mm ammo due to my gf purchasing a 9mm pistol and im finding boxes of 9mm fmj for 12.99 to 14.99 a box. On maui 9mm im seeing it at 22-24 a box of fmj. So cutting cost is not much on maui. All of mpd carry glock 22 so 40 s&w is abundant here.

IIRC, the .40 S&W came about because the 10mm was deemed too hot for the FBI.  So some reduced charge loads were brewed up amounting to what is now the .40.

I never got excited about it, and after reading about unpleasant recoil impulses etc. decided to just keep on keeping on with the good old .45 ACP.  Had a 9mm for decades, but after I sold it, just could not come up with a good reason to get another.

The .40 just seemed like a more unpleasant version of the 9mm, but as I said, never had one, so it might not be so bad.  Still, with my .45s, there is no point in it.  Just might try a 10mm barrel one of these days just to see what it is like.  Lots of guys seem to love the cartridge for hunting.

.40 will stay popular for a while since many police departments use it.  However long term, 15+ years, it'll drop in popularity, maybe to 38spl levels, but will still be around.  Unless a major agency takes it up, like if military were to adopt it.

In my biased opinion,  38sp is one of the iconic calibers for revolvers/handguns.
Although not many guns are made in 38sp these days, the caliber is still used in 357 magnum firearms
38 ammo availability is greater than 40cal, although I don't have a 40 and am not looking for it so I could be wrong
Comparing the 40 to the 38 is a great complement in my book.

A few friends have 40's and love them.
I think they are a great caliber,  hard hitting, with plenty enough weight to generate ample energy and impact
I don't think the 40 will be going anywhere

I think another reason 40SW became more popular is the magazine ban from 1994.  Since magazines were limited to 10 rounds, people chose to have 10 stronger rounds in 40SW.