According to the NRA and NSSF gun sales are still going well.   Huh

https://www.nraila.org/articles/20170407/firearms-purchases-still-trending-up

IMHO:

1.  Prices didn't jump after Hillary was defeated, so deals are attracting buyers who waited.

2.  Democrats have been programmed to fear a Republican governed country.  Loss of civil rights, racism, etc.  Many have reported buying guns to prepare for a possible civil war.  And they call right-wing voters paranoid!

I'm going to take a wild guess and say local sales are down.
But how would we know for sure?

Prices in the classifieds are down and looks like some stuff that would normally sell pretty quick aren't selling.
appears right now is a buyers market locally.
Some mean deals to be had.   

Locally, I'm guessing some Rapback apprehension may still linger.

Not a fan of the fake news hysterical WashPo but here is the story:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/gun-sales-have-dropped-since-trumps-election-except-among-people-scared-of-his-administration/2017/03/05/03f5b522-ff6a-11e6-8f41-ea6ed597e4ca_story.html?utm_term=.6360581ccde1

I'm going to take a wild guess and say local sales are down.
But how would we know for sure?

Not a one to one correlation (private re-sales, multiple sales, checks for annual permits, etc.), but all things being roughly equal here are the monthly year to year comparisons for Hawaii NICS checks. (We DO know that none of these checks (in 2016) were for issuing CCW licenses!  )

              Jan           Feb          March          Total

2016      1,383        1,424       1,469            4,276

2017         866        1,037       1,040            2,943

2017 NICS checks are at 69% for the same time period of 2016... whatever that means for sales.... I'd guess it's roughly accurate.

With the increase in Constitutional, permit-less and permitted CCW in several states, I'm sure demand in CCW pistols has increased.

Not a one to one correlation (private re-sales, multiple sales, checks for annual permits, etc.), but all things being roughly equal here are the monthly year to year comparisons for Hawaii NICS checks. (We DO know that none of these checks (in 2016) were for issuing CCW licenses!  )

              Jan           Feb          March          Total

2016      1,383        1,424       1,469            4,276

2017         866        1,037       1,040            2,943

2017 NICS checks are at 69% for the same time period of 2016... whatever that means for sales.... I'd guess it's roughly accurate.

Some states allow handgun sales without an NICS check if you have a CCW/CCH permit.  So, NICS checks might not capture those new gun sales.

Some states allow handgun sales without an NICS check if you have a CCW/CCH permit.  So, NICS checks might not capture those new gun sales.

Those stats are for HAWAII ONLY (my response was to someone asking about "local sales"). So that'd be all legal sales, since there are no "exceptions" to full government involvement and "permission" in any and all firearms transactions.

The national numbers for the first three months of 2016/2017 come in for 87% of the 2016 total for 2017. If we can assume that there are no major shifts in policies regarding which states run background checks for what purposes (i.e. whatever the "exceptions" and anomalies are, they are likely in approximately the same percentages this year as last year), then it's probably a good proxy to conclude that firearm sales are off a bit nationally, and substantially in Hawaii.

Those stats are for HAWAII ONLY (my response was to someone asking about "local sales"). So that'd be all legal sales, since there are no "exceptions" to full government involvement and "permission" in any and all firearms transactions.

The national numbers for the first three months of 2016/2017 come in for 87% of the 2016 total for 2017. If we can assume that there are no major shifts in policies regarding which states run background checks for what purposes (i.e. whatever the "exceptions" and anomalies are, they are likely in approximately the same percentages this year as last year), then it's probably a good proxy to conclude that firearm sales are off a bit nationally, and substantially in Hawaii.

oops

These kinds of questions are exactly the type of justifications given for national gun registrations.  Without a database of gun owners, it's difficult to run stats to identify trends and compare datasets.

Looking at NICS checks, ATF forms filed, registrations in states that require it, and other data doesn't capture all of the sales, transfers and losses of firearms.

Too bad no one has come up with a way of anonymously reporting aggregate figures for comparisons.  I can see a use for that, if for no other reason, to support market research.

The theory goes that with a conservative president in office, crime will go down so we won't need guns to protect ourselves. According to capitalism rules, there will be a thinning of the herd and only the strong will survive. That doesn't exactly mean the more established firearm manufacturers.

The theory goes that with a conservative president in office, crime will go down so we won't need guns to protect ourselves. According to capitalism rules, there will be a thinning of the herd and only the strong will survive. That doesn't exactly mean the more established firearm manufacturers.

How do terrorism, a failed mental health system and massive over-prescribing of psychotropic drugs figure into the political landscape as they impact gun sales?

 

Trump (or should I say Kushner) will fix all that.

How do terrorism, a failed mental health system and massive over-prescribing of psychotropic drugs figure into the political landscape as they impact gun sales?

 

Trump (or should I say Kushner) will fix all that.

I'm asking, because in my view, there are more people deciding to carry and have a home defense weapon due to the highly publicized murders often involving these elements.  Not a political factor, but a perceived threat.

No data to support my opinion and pretty much pure speculation.

I believe that guns sales are still strong, at least relatively speaking.  Are they as good as 2016?  No.  But I do see the firearms market as still being quite good.  Were there many anticipating a HRC win and got burned?  I am sure.  That's me as a consumer to a certain extent.  I bought things ahead Nov 2016 that I would have bought later and I think many did too.  Many of those things, like mags, can now be had at even better prices.  For the guns that I bought, the pricing is about the same since I did wait for good deals. 

The conservative president thinking probably hurts, but I also think that many did "get theirs" before the 2016 election, so they really just aren't in the market right now.  That's how it is for me and at least a handful of gun guys that I know. 

Is rapback affecting things locally?  I have to believe so.  However, it never ceases to amaze me how many people still have never heard of rapback.  And that includes current gun owners. 

Is rapback affecting things locally?  I have to believe so.  However, it never ceases to amaze me how many people still have never heard of rapback.  And that includes current gun owners.

I have no concrete data to support my opinion, but it seems to me that, as a whole, "gun owners" are almost as apathetic and maybe as ignorant as the general population as a whole about the politics (including legal issues and cases) that effect their Second Amendment rights. For example, in California if 20% of gun owners turned out and voted for the pro-gun-civil-rights candidates, they would take over the state legislature and do away with all that crap they have there (and constantly working on more)... but... the opposite exists as the gun owners don't vote.

I have no concrete data to support my opinion, but it seems to me that, as a whole, "gun owners" are almost as apathetic and maybe as ignorant as the general population as a whole about the politics (including legal issues and cases) that effect their Second Amendment rights. For example, in California if 20% of gun owners turned out and voted for the pro-gun-civil-rights candidates, they would take over the state legislature and do away with all that crap they have there (and constantly working on more)... but... the opposite exists as the gun owners don't vote.

No concrete data here either, but I agree. 

You have the people on here and my gun nut friends.  They are all aware.  Then I have friends who have casual interest in guns and own maybe 1-2 guns.  Some are aware, but I would say over half are ignorant.  Even if I mention it, there's the "I have a gun, don't need any more" thinking as well as just simply never looked into the issue or really care about the 2A itself anyways.  Even if they thought of the 2A as an afterthought, it would be a step up for 2A rights.  That's all people that I know personally and sadly the first group that are "all aware" are maybe like 10% of the people that I know well, tops.

Purely my opinion, but also based on what I've observed.  There are the "fudds".  They probably have a bunch of guns, but they really don't care about anything other than what they do.  They are very much ignorant and I would even say blissfully ignorant.  They don't view rapback as something that directly affects their hobby. 

I mentioned to the guy at Kaneohe Gun Shop that gun sales will go up if Hillary wins the election, and he started ranting about how the mess she will cause is not worth the increase in gun sales. I agree with what he said. He then took his belt knife out and started stabbing his wooden post, so there are a lot of strong feelings about this.

Even with an active agenda against gun sales, the financial stability of the firearm industry is susceptible to market forces just like any other industry like oil and OPEC. It's all a matter of supply and demand. If the firearm/ammo manufacturer can match demand and keep their inventory low when necessary, the company can be financially stable despite the lower stock price. On the bright side, there's more coal jobs.

 you are killing me rklapp


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