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America’s Complex Relationship With Guns An in-depth look (Read 6005 times)

rklapp

America’s Complex Relationship With Guns An in-depth look
« on: July 05, 2017, 07:16:54 PM »
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2017/06/22/americas-complex-relationship-with-guns/

It's quite evident when guest enter my house that there are guns because I post my best target results on the wall next to my desk (and my diploma and certifications). Plus I have a bunch of reloading supplies laying around.




I believe the biggest impact on gun control laws is the way that gun violence is perceived by the public. IMHO, if we address these issues, then the public will be more accepting of gun ownership.

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Yahh! Freedom and justice shall always prevail over tyranny, Babysitter Girl!
https://ronsreloading.wordpress.com/

Flapp_Jackson

Re: America’s Complex Relationship With Guns An in-depth look
« Reply #1 on: July 05, 2017, 08:45:23 PM »
A poll on whether access to legal guns impacts "gun violence" is worthless.  That's totally unscientific.

Unless 97% of respondents agree, of course!   :rofl:

Stats can show correlation:  trends, comparisons, changes, etc.  They cannot identify causation.

The gun debate will never be won by either side using stats.  The numbers are sometimes interesting, but without including all the variables that make one use of forearms more or less desirable than another, stats are useless.

Example:
ACTION:  Place strict restrictions on LEGAL firearms purchases so buyers opt to not buy a gun.  High firearm taxes have been used in some places for this purpose.
CHANGE:  50% fewer people purchase firearms that year.
RESULT:  Number of LEGAL gun-related crimes drop 10%
CONCLUSION:  Reducing private ownership of guns also reduces gun violence.

REALITY:  Violent crime rate unrelated to LEGAL guns rises 20%.  People previously able to defend themselves with guns are now victims. 
Criminals who used to use caution when committing crimes can now be less  cautious, because criminals tend to prey on the weak.  Without guns, weaker people are now defenseless.
Suicide rates only dropped 1%.  Methods used shifted to more asphyxiations and overdoses, the #2 and #3 methods currently employed.

 If we could get criminals and the mentally ill to follow the current laws, we wouldn't have anywhere near the "gun violence" we see now.  Legal guns are not involved in the majority of gun crimes when you exclude suicides..

I'm at a loss on how you intend to "address these issues" when the issues have not been properly  defined.
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The reasonable man adapts himself to the world;
the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself.
Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
-- George Bernard Shaw

punaperson

Re: America’s Complex Relationship With Guns An in-depth look
« Reply #2 on: July 05, 2017, 08:45:35 PM »
I see Pew, at least in the portions I quickly looked through on the link provided and the .pdf file of the study and methodology linked there, 1. didn't report how many people answered the first question (about personal ownership and/or household presence) with "None of your (expletive deleted) business." or 2. How they "corrected" for the fact that it is well-known that a certain percentage of people when asked (especially by a stranger on the phone) if they own a gun or live in a house with a gun will lie and say "no" (for a variety of (some obvious) possible reasons).

I also find it hard to believe (among many other of the "results") that nearly half of "gun owners" favor "banning assault style weapons" (48%!!) and banning "high capacity magazines" (44%).  :wtf:

Of course I also notice that a whopping 82% of "self-reported" "gun owners" favor banning people on a "no fly" or "watch list" from being able to possess firearms. If that is true, which I find hard to believe, I guess it would show that even "gun owners" are uninformed morons (see: nonexistence of "due process", "error rate" over 40%, completely innocent unsuspected neighbors, co-workers, distant relatives, etc. being on the list due to an "association", etc. etc. etc.).

Hidden way down in the last pages of the .pdf under the methodology section is this tidbit: " Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home". In other words they were asking (possibly) high school and college students and/or millennials. They don't make any mention of WHY that would be part of a "randomized" selection process, but I'm virtually certain I can tell you the likely bias of that group of people, even the ones who claim to be "gun owners".

Leaves out every single case of "good" "gun violence", i.e. bad guy gets what he deserves, and a jury/prosecutor agrees.

My conclusion: basically worthless horse manure.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2017, 09:03:35 PM by punaperson »
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punaperson

Re: America’s Complex Relationship With Guns An in-depth look
« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2017, 06:45:55 AM »
Here's a part of the NRA-ILA response to one single issue with the Pew polling... how many members the NRA would have according to the Pew poll (14 million), compared to how many they actually have (5 million), if the polling reflected "reality" rather than some make-believe world of people who lie when answering the questions, and/or terribly poor sampling techniques and/or terrible statistical methodology.

Remarkable Finding from Pew Survey

https://www.nraila.org/articles/20170707/remarkable-finding-from-pew-survey

Pew’s recent survey on firearm-related attitudes and experiences of U.S. adults found – based on the percentage saying “yes” to the question about whether they are NRA members – that more than 14 million Americans consider themselves NRA members.  The real NRA membership of about 5 million falls well short of this measure, even accounting for any statistical error the survey produced.

What this means in terms of polling, and one thing that Pew and others simply do not make clear to the public when reporting on the survey results, is that Pew did not actually survey NRA members.  Any views, beliefs, or opinions they ascribe to “NRA members” is a simple guess on their part.  Pew does not know what percentage of NRA members support one law or another, how many guns they own, or anything else for that matter.  At best, they can claim to have the responses of Americans who SAY they are NRA members, but they certainly cannot say much beyond that.
…

Unfortunately, this simple truth hasn’t stopped Pew from attempting to present to the public, along with an eager media, multiple claims or measures about our members’ opinions. Nor has it stopped the similar and blatant attempts by ideologically-driven gun control advocates to claim they know, from polling data alone, how NRA members view particular topics.
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Heavies

Re: America’s Complex Relationship With Guns An in-depth look
« Reply #4 on: July 09, 2017, 01:22:29 PM »
"% of adults that say".....

Call comes in..
"Hello, we are doing a survey.  Do you have any guns in your household?"

Response...
"That's none of your f**king business.  *click"

I believe gun owners (Republican, Democrat, Libertarian, independent)  outnumber any liberal gun grabbing democrat hypocrites.   We just need to VOTE, instead of whining about it to each other. Get on it, before our freedoms and liberty are forever lost.
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Garuda

Re: America’s Complex Relationship With Guns An in-depth look
« Reply #5 on: July 09, 2017, 04:10:34 PM »
Forgive me if I'm wrong, I didn't read the article,

But I'm guessing it's full of $hit based on the title.

Complex?  What's complex about freedom?
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Heavies

Re: America’s Complex Relationship With Guns An in-depth look
« Reply #6 on: July 09, 2017, 06:50:33 PM »
Quote from: Garuda on July 09, 2017, 04:10:34 PM
Forgive me if I'm wrong, I didn't read the article,

But I'm guessing it's full of $hit based on the title.

Complex?  What's complex about freedom?
You are completely correct.  It becomes complex when idiot hypocrites cannot read and comprehend common English, and why, I believe, the push to de-legitimize English as the USA's official language.

"A well regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the People to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed. "
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rklapp

Re: America’s Complex Relationship With Guns An in-depth look
« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2017, 12:21:32 AM »
You'll always have the pro-2a and always have the anti-2a. That's nothing new. The question is how much. I agree that phone surveys are not entirely accurate, but it's better to start somewhere rather than nothing.

What's not surprising in the survey is that most gun owners are Republican and live in the rural areas. What is surprising is that there are more gun owners over the age of 50 than there are under 50. About 25 years from now, the pro-2a movement might be hurting.

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Yahh! Freedom and justice shall always prevail over tyranny, Babysitter Girl!
https://ronsreloading.wordpress.com/

London808

Re: America’s Complex Relationship With Guns An in-depth look
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2017, 06:52:55 AM »
Quote from: rklapp on July 10, 2017, 12:21:32 AM
I agree that phone surveys are not entirely accurate, but it's better to start somewhere rather than nothing.

No, its better have nothing the to have data that is scewed in one direction because of the surveyors beliefs.

They use loaded questions to get the awnsers that they want.

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"Mr. Roberts is a bit of a fanatic, he has previously sued HPD about gun registration issues." : Major Richard Robinson 2016

Heavies

Re: America’s Complex Relationship With Guns An in-depth look
« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2017, 07:22:48 AM »
Quote from: London808 on July 10, 2017, 06:52:55 AM
No, its better have nothing the to have data that is scewed in one direction because of the surveyors beliefs.

They use loaded questions to get the awnsers that they want.



Yep,  the data that they want...  lots of guns in households, enough to show that there is a 'problem', but yet not enough to have a majority of sway on the issue.... 

They are wrong about the percentage of climate change scientists,  they are wrong about Killary supporters, and they are wrong about this....  there is a silent majority in the US, the question is when are they going to stop preaching to the choir,  and get to action? 
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punaperson

Re: America’s Complex Relationship With Guns An in-depth look
« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2017, 07:49:52 AM »
Quote from: rklapp on July 10, 2017, 12:21:32 AM
You'll always have the pro-2a and always have the anti-2a. That's nothing new. The question is how much. I agree that phone surveys are not entirely accurate, but it's better to start somewhere rather than nothing.

GIGO. Garbage in, garbage out. No matter how you analyze bad data, you will have bad data and "answers" that are misleading at best, and quite possibly blatantly false. Of course it is possible that coincidentally the "bad data" could happen to coincide with whatever the real data might be, purely by "accident". In this case, for example, where 48% of the self-identified "gun owners" favor "banning assault style weapons", I call bullshit.

What's not surprising in the survey is that most gun owners are Republican and live in the rural areas. What is surprising is that there are more gun owners over the age of 50 than there are under 50. About 25 years from now, the pro-2a movement might be hurting.
 
You make several errors. One is assuming that the rates of ownership for the various age groups will continue to be the same as that group ages. There is some evidence that as people age they are slightly more inclined to become gun owners, so the younger age group rates of ownership could increase percentage-wise as that group ages. Two is that in terms of "raw numbers" (vs. "rate") the under-50 gun owners already outnumber the over-50 gun owners 58 million to 47 million, and the over-50 raw number is getting smaller every day at a much higher rate that then under-50 raw number (the older age group is dying at a much faster rate than the younger age group). Three, because the rates of ownership vary by minuscule differences (43/39 vs 43/45), and are well within the margin of error of the poll, even if the poll numbers weren't total garbage, there may be no difference in reality, or it is so small that it is irrelevant. One million more or less gun owners in a country of 315 million people, or more in the 25 years in the future you speculate, will not be anywhere near enough of a political force to alter things one way or the other, especially given that the vast majority of gun owners now don't vote single issue if they vote at all (See: California), and there is no reason to believe that will change in the future.

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changemyoil66

Re: America’s Complex Relationship With Guns An in-depth look
« Reply #11 on: July 10, 2017, 12:46:56 PM »
Quote from: Heavies on July 09, 2017, 01:22:29 PM
"% of adults that say".....

Call comes in..
"Hello, we are doing a survey.  Do you have any guns in your household?"

Response...
"That's none of your f**king business.  *click"

I believe gun owners (Republican, Democrat, Libertarian, independent)  outnumber any liberal gun grabbing democrat hypocrites.   We just need to VOTE, instead of whining about it to each other. Get on it, before our freedoms and liberty are forever lost.

Caller: Guy just said "That's none of your f**king business"...he must be a gun owner.  ;D
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Heavies

Re: America’s Complex Relationship With Guns An in-depth look
« Reply #12 on: July 10, 2017, 08:17:26 PM »
Quote from: changemyoil66 on July 10, 2017, 12:46:56 PM
Caller: Guy just said "That's none of your f**king business"...he must be a gun owner.  ;D

Maybe..  as long as the numbers don't go over 49-51% gun owner. :rofl: 
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