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"the fundamentals of the economy are sound" (Read 21571 times)

hvybarrels

"the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« on: February 05, 2018, 06:23:09 PM »
Uh oh. When you hear people saying that it's usually followed by disaster. 
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The problem governments are trying to solve is the existence of your freedom.

Kuleana

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2018, 07:09:04 PM »
Quote from: hvybarrels on February 05, 2018, 06:23:09 PM
Uh oh. When you hear people saying that it's usually followed by disaster.

I agree with you totally.

The fundamentals of both the US and the local economy are not sound at all.  As you have already mentioned in numerous posts, one needs only see the true unemployment and underemployment numbers, the federal budget deficit and national debt to realize that the US and Hawaii for that matter is one major economic bubble burst away from major pain for everyone, except the ultra-wealthy, of course.
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ren

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2018, 07:43:53 PM »
so how are you guys preparing for this doom?
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Deeds Not Words

Inspector

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2018, 07:57:24 PM »
Isn't this a bit premature?
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Flapp_Jackson

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #4 on: February 05, 2018, 08:21:17 PM »
Quote from: Inspector on February 05, 2018, 07:57:24 PM
Isn't this a bit premature?

Forget it.  They're on a roll.   :rofl:

They've both been hoping for some bad news just to make themselves feel vindicated.   :popcorn:
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The reasonable man adapts himself to the world;
the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself.
Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
-- George Bernard Shaw

hvybarrels

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #5 on: February 05, 2018, 08:29:41 PM »
Everyone has their alarms. Hearing that phrase is mine.
A bit of foresight is one of the benefits of paying attention to historical context. Doesn't repeat itself but it definitely rhymes.
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The problem governments are trying to solve is the existence of your freedom.

macsak

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #6 on: February 05, 2018, 08:37:40 PM »
Quote from: Kuleana on February 05, 2018, 07:09:04 PM
I agree with you totally.

The fundamentals of both the US and the local economy are not sound at all.  As you have already mentioned in numerous posts, one needs only see the true unemployment and underemployment numbers, the federal budget deficit and national debt to realize that the US and Hawaii for that matter is one major economic bubble burst away from major pain for everyone, except the ultra-wealthy, of course.

we'll probably get nuked before then because of the military presence in hawaii
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Inspector

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #7 on: February 05, 2018, 08:41:40 PM »
Quote from: Flapp_Jackson on February 05, 2018, 08:21:17 PM
Forget it.  They're on a roll.   :rofl:

They've both been hoping for some bad news just to make themselves feel vindicated.   :popcorn:
Not to defend them, but we don't know truly what is going to happen in the future. This could just be normal market highs and lows. It could be a correction which is defined to occur at 10% or it could be a crash. We won't know until it actually happens. Which is why I asked that this is a little premature.

It is obvious that it does not matter that the fundamentals of the economy are truly sound. And they are sound. The stock market moves up and down on it's own volition. One does not necessarily have anything to do with the other. In this case the prevailing thought about the downward trend in the market is due to inflation and higher interest rates. Which is a normal occurance when the economy is heating up and the fundamentals of the economy are sound. As inflation increases due to higher wages, the Fed will increase the prime rate in order to keep inflation in check. Yes, it is possible for the market to have a correction or worse when the economy is doing well.

I would hope that everyone who is in the market has their stop loss orders in with their brokers in case the market drops past their comfort level. That way one can stop or minimize their losses and retain some profit.
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SCIENCE THAT CAN’T BE QUESTIONED IS PROPAGANDA!!!

s197

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2018, 08:55:23 PM »
Quote from: ren on February 05, 2018, 07:43:53 PM
so how are you guys preparing for this doom?
There's a lot of people who were short volatility as it was easy money for years with a stable market. I think the big drop was these guys getting squeezed. Once the shorts get margined or cover, we'll see if this is really a correction.

I've been underweight stocks but it's hard with no real good options unless you think you can time the market. I learned I can't long ago.

I'm not convinced inflation is coming.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

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Kuleana

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2018, 09:04:54 PM »
Quote from: Inspector on February 05, 2018, 08:41:40 PM
Not to defend them, but we don't know truly what is going to happen in the future.

Why the statement?  Are you afraid of the backlash of the group-thinkers.  Whether you agree or not, the fact is you do see the potential of something, which explains your caution.


It is obvious that it does not matter that the fundamentals of the economy are truly sound. And they are sound.

What economic fundamentals are you referring that leads you to believe they are sound?

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Inspector

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2018, 09:22:15 PM »
Quote from: Kuleana on February 05, 2018, 09:04:54 PM

Just because I state the truth you assume I am afraid of backlash from so called group thinkers? Is it possible that these so called group thinkers are not telling the whole truth? For instance, this dip in the market might just be a good buying opportunity if the market starts going back up again. That could be the absolute truth as well as it could be a correction or a crash. When are these so called group thinkers going to say the market is going to go up some time in the future? I only hear them say the market is going to crash. Both statements are true. Only I say the entire truth when the group thinkers are only telling the partial truth. I will suggest that you don't assume anything and don't put words into my mouth.

How can I agree with someone who doesn't know exactly what the market is going to do tomorrow when I don't know exactly what the market is going to do tomorrow?
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SCIENCE THAT CAN’T BE QUESTIONED IS PROPAGANDA!!!

ren

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2018, 09:24:13 PM »
there will be an earthquake sometime in the near future somewhere in the world...doomsday I tell ya...
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Deeds Not Words

Heavies

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #12 on: February 05, 2018, 09:41:53 PM »
Lol....    Still WAY better off than 8 years of stagnation.  The boom was bound to adjust.
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Kuleana

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #13 on: February 05, 2018, 09:43:25 PM »
Quote from: Inspector on February 05, 2018, 09:22:15 PM
Just because I state the truth you assume I am afraid of backlash from so called group thinkers? Is it possible that these so called group thinkers are not telling the whole truth? For instance, this dip in the market might just be a good buying opportunity if the market starts going back up again. That could be the absolute truth as well as it could be a correction or a crash. When are these so called group thinkers going to say the market is going to go up some time in the future? I only hear them say the market is going to crash. Both statements are true. Only I say the entire truth when the group thinkers are only telling the partial truth. I will suggest that you don't assume anything and don't put words into my mouth.

How can I agree with someone who doesn't know exactly what the market is going to do tomorrow when I don't know exactly what the market is going to do tomorrow?

I was not addressing the reasons for your stance on the market, as it makes total sense.  I was referring to the part where you consciously made the effort to state to the group-thinkers in this thread that your following post is not in any agreement with the similar points of view of Hvybarrels and myself.  Did you feel compelled to qualify your post to them before sharing your views?
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Heavies

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #14 on: February 05, 2018, 09:44:54 PM »
Did you or hyvbarrels lose your shirts? 
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hvybarrels

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #15 on: February 05, 2018, 09:59:52 PM »
Quote from: Inspector on February 05, 2018, 09:22:15 PM
Just because I state the truth you assume I am afraid of backlash from so called group thinkers?

You missed his point. We aren't the group thinkers, you guys are with a healthy dose of normalcy bias. The fact that you had to apologise before making a statement outside the realm of what passes for political correctness on this site is very telling.

The market is bonkers and only makes sense if you look at it as an inflationary bubble. It might bounce around and zip higher before crashing again, but when they tell you not to panic it's usually a ploy to get everyone else to hold on while the big players run for the fire exit.

I don't invest in the stock market for the same reason I don't bet on sports. It's all rigged.
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The problem governments are trying to solve is the existence of your freedom.

Flapp_Jackson

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #16 on: February 05, 2018, 10:21:33 PM »
Quote from: hvybarrels on February 05, 2018, 09:59:52 PM
You missed his point. We aren't the group thinkers, you guys are with a healthy dose of normalcy bias. The fact that you had to apologise before making a statement outside the realm of what passes for political correctness on this site is very telling.

The market is bonkers and only makes sense if you look at it as an inflationary bubble. It might bounce around and zip higher before crashing again, but when they tell you not to panic it's usually a ploy to get everyone else to hold on while the big players run for the fire exit.

I don't invest in the stock market for the same reason I don't bet on sports. It's all rigged.

Sounds more like sour grapes.  You're pissed other people have money working for them, and all you can do is bad mouth anyone and everyone who's doing better than you.

Your kind is too common.  Always has all the answers, but doesn't ever DO anything about it.  Pfft!!   :sleeping:
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The reasonable man adapts himself to the world;
the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself.
Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
-- George Bernard Shaw

hvybarrels

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #17 on: February 05, 2018, 10:32:57 PM »
Some people just like gambling more than others. If I enjoyed the emotional rush maybe I could overlook the gaping holes in the narrative and jump on the dog pile like everyone else. If it completely tanks there could be some good deals on the bottom end and that might be worth investigating. We'll see what kind of new regulations come out of this mess. Right now my focus is on other projects and I consider those my investments. They don't pay off in money very well but that's not the only reward worth pursuing.
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The problem governments are trying to solve is the existence of your freedom.

Flapp_Jackson

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #18 on: February 05, 2018, 10:54:36 PM »
Quote from: hvybarrels on February 05, 2018, 10:32:57 PM
Some people just like gambling more than others. If I enjoyed the emotional rush maybe I could overlook the gaping holes in the narrative and jump on the dog pile like everyone else. If it completely tanks there could be some good deals on the bottom end and that might be worth investigating. We'll see what kind of new regulations come out of this mess. Right now my focus is on other projects and I consider those my investments. They don't pay off in money very well but that's not the only reward worth pursuing.

Everyone you know must be an idiot.  The vast majority of people in the market are not day traders who sit in front of a computer making trades every time the Fed farts.

People with money in IRAs  and 401Ks let their money sit often for decades without the "gambling" bug driving them.  They are regular people putting a little something away until they retire.

My 401K hit over $500K after it was stagnant under Obama for 8 years.  I rode the drop in 2007 and then the ride up to even after 4 years.  I think I made enough to pay brokerage fees the next 4 years.  Once Trump was elected, my retirement account has been on an upward tear.

But, that's just me.  You probably know why I could have made $2 million by now.....
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The reasonable man adapts himself to the world;
the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself.
Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
-- George Bernard Shaw

hvybarrels

Re: "the fundamentals of the economy are sound"
« Reply #19 on: February 05, 2018, 11:42:27 PM »
Good for you. Hopefully you have a plan for when it starts evaporating. They don't print money for Joe six-packs. Only huge banks get bail outs.
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The problem governments are trying to solve is the existence of your freedom.
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