Hurricane Season 2018 (Read 18531 times)

macsak

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #60 on: August 21, 2018, 08:50:22 PM »
According to the forecasts Lane should be a Cat 1 when it reaches Oahu.  Wind is still a serious threat, but massive flooding will probably cause the most damage.

Be prepared for the water too.
as of 8 pm, lane was upgraded to cat 5, and there's a chance it may still be cat 3 when it reaches oahu
the cat 1 was the 5 pm report

RSN172

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #61 on: August 21, 2018, 09:41:01 PM »
I was at KTA this evening.  Usual crowd, no one buying much.  Not many people buying water because most BI people have catchment tanks.  Stopped at a gas station to fill up my car since I had just half tank and when I pulled in, I was the only one there.  Seems like people here not much concerned about Lane.

drck1000

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #62 on: August 21, 2018, 09:55:24 PM »
Ran by Texaco after work and it was packed. Will prob stop off the station next to my office tmrw morning. Things tend to be less busy at 6 am.

And Cat 1 hurricane seems like not and, but 74 mph winds are no joke. That is sustained winds. The gusts can get much higher and that’s what can cause a lot of damage. Looks like Oahu is currently in the most direct path. Just hoping the storm loses energy.

2ahavvaii

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #63 on: August 22, 2018, 12:22:22 AM »
Ran by Texaco after work and it was packed. Will prob stop off the station next to my office tmrw morning. Things tend to be less busy at 6 am.

And Cat 1 hurricane seems like not and, but 74 mph winds are no joke. That is sustained winds. The gusts can get much higher and that’s what can cause a lot of damage. Looks like Oahu is currently in the most direct path. Just hoping the storm loses energy.



Cat 1 is an old forecast.  The hurricane was never predicted to go to cat 5.  Even strong cat 4 caught forecasters by surprise.  So I wouldn't put that much stock in the forecasts...

and one thing that's not being reported by the media or widely known for that matter is that they found out that this hurricane in particular is spawning many tornadoes (or waterspouts over water).  Even at lower intensity hurricane categories, the tornados its generating can create massive amounts of localized destruction.  Do you remember iniki, and how some houses were left relatively unscathed, while other streets were absolutely decimated?  Likely due to tornadoes.  Hurricanes can spawn tornadoes rating as "severe", 150-200mph
« Last Edit: August 22, 2018, 12:36:18 AM by 2ahavvaii »

drck1000

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #64 on: August 22, 2018, 08:34:29 AM »


Cat 1 is an old forecast.  The hurricane was never predicted to go to cat 5.  Even strong cat 4 caught forecasters by surprise.  So I wouldn't put that much stock in the forecasts...

and one thing that's not being reported by the media or widely known for that matter is that they found out that this hurricane in particular is spawning many tornadoes (or waterspouts over water).  Even at lower intensity hurricane categories, the tornados its generating can create massive amounts of localized destruction.  Do you remember iniki, and how some houses were left relatively unscathed, while other streets were absolutely decimated?  Likely due to tornadoes.  Hurricanes can spawn tornadoes rating as "severe", 150-200mph
The part about Cat 1 storm was in response to an earlier comment mentioning that according to the forecasts Lane should be a Cat 1 when it reaches Oahu.  I was pointing out the fact that even as a Cat 1 storm, it's nothing to be taken lightly.  That part also should have read "Cat 1 hurricane seems like not a lot, but. . ."  That folks seem to have gotten lulled into a sense of safety as past storms have lost strength at they approach the island, as this one generally has.  But like you said, this one is different.  It has the markings of the "northern hook" path which usually worry the hurricane center folks. 

The studies after Iniki and other major storms tell a lot, but it's tough to tell without having witnessed it.  The studies after many major storms noticed that same thing about one house with a roof torn off next to another one that maybe just lost roofing.  In most of those cases, the conclusion was that the connection of the roof to the walls failed at a corner (corners encounter higher pressures concentrated on the roof eve) and then a zipper effect followed.  The failure causes a "partially enclosed" condition where the wind pressures at the location of the opening are much higher following the failure.  That's why roof tie downs are stressed in modern construction in hurricane prone regions.  I literally tossed those studies out a few weeks ago since in an office cleanup.  That's not to say that the localized tornadoes aren't the reason though, just no one is usually around to witness and report. 

2ahavvaii

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #65 on: August 22, 2018, 09:31:41 AM »
It is likely that state offices and schools across the state will be closed both thursday/friday in anticipation of the hurricane potentially hitting the entire island chain .  final approval for that is with governor, of course.
« Last Edit: August 22, 2018, 09:37:49 AM by 2ahavvaii »

Flapp_Jackson

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #66 on: August 22, 2018, 09:34:02 AM »
It is likely that state offices and schools across the state will be closed both thursday/friday in anticipation of the hurricane potentially hitting the entire island chain.  final approval for that is with governor, of course.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38933580/list-closures-cancellations-due-to-threat-of-hurricane-lane
Liberal:  Someone who is passionately concerned with issues about which they know absolutely nothing.

2ahavvaii

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #67 on: August 22, 2018, 09:38:32 AM »

Flapp_Jackson

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #68 on: August 22, 2018, 09:38:40 AM »
Quote
At 8 a.m. Wednesday, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said Hurricane Lane was still a Category 4 storm,
packing maximum sustained winds near 155 mph with higher gusts after weakening slightly overnight.

Lane was centered about 305 miles south of Kailua-Kona — or 445 miles south-southeast of Honolulu — and
moving near 8 mph.

On Tuesday night, Lane became one of only two recorded Category 5 hurricanes to pass within 350 miles of
the Big Island's South Point. The last: Hurricane John in 1994.

Meanwhile, Lane started to turn to the west-northwest on Tuesday night and is expected to turn northwest
Wednesday, bringing it "dangerously close" to the island chain. The center of the storm is expected to move
very close or over parts of the state Thursday through Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend 40 miles from the center of the storm, while tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 140 miles.

http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38890702/hurricane-watch-issued-for-hawaii-maui-counties-as-lane-nears-state
Liberal:  Someone who is passionately concerned with issues about which they know absolutely nothing.

Flapp_Jackson

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #69 on: August 22, 2018, 09:40:02 AM »
current state office/school closures are for big island and maui counties only.

Quote
This story will be updated with new closures as they happen.

Liberal:  Someone who is passionately concerned with issues about which they know absolutely nothing.

2ahavvaii

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #70 on: August 22, 2018, 09:45:08 AM »


And emergency leaders are planning for the closures as I mentioned on Thursday and Friday.  That's all I'm saying. I am aware of what the current closures are...

There was talk of the closure being friday only, but now it seems like it will be for thursday as well. They want to give people time to make final preparations, and for shelters to start opening on thursday in advance of the storm's arrival.  the state is taking a "better safe than sorry approach" on this one.

2ahavvaii

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #71 on: August 22, 2018, 11:53:01 AM »
Hurricane Lane still cat 4.

Gov to announce the closures I mentioned later this afternoon, it's all but certain.  Thursday/Friday, oahu will see the same level of closures already in effect on the big island.

RSN172

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #72 on: August 22, 2018, 11:56:05 AM »
At this time, 1154 hours, no wind or rain at my house in Fern Forest.  Only had a brief rain this morning.

Flapp_Jackson

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #73 on: August 22, 2018, 12:04:54 PM »
Governor expands closure of state offices to Oahu, Kauai

Quote
All state offices on Oahu and Kauai will be closed starting Thursday as Lane approaches the islands,
and non-essential state employees are being told not to report to work.

The governor already closed all state offices on the Big Island and Maui County starting Wednesday.

The closures are expected to run through Friday.

Non-essential state workers are being granted administrative leave and should not come to work, the
governor's office said.

Essential state employees are required to report to work. They include emergency coordinators, disaster
response workers and employees who work in crucial operations or services, such as hospital workers
or corrections officers.

This story will be updated.


http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/38934005/all-state-offices-on-big-island-maui-closed-as-lane-tracks-toward-hawaii
Liberal:  Someone who is passionately concerned with issues about which they know absolutely nothing.

2ahavvaii

drck1000

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #75 on: August 22, 2018, 12:39:28 PM »
Things getting more real.  I'm part of our organizations contingency and damage response team.  We had a briefing this morning on status of the storm (was already aware of most of it) and ironing out procedures if we need to report.  Other teams had gone to provide support after Katrina and other large storms, but nothing really in Hawaii since I volunteered. 

Latest update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center was that the storm has taken it's northern turn further west than previously anticipated and wind shears appear to be slowly dissipating the storm.  However, always caution as storms can strengthen, as has this one a few times. 

Anyways, be safe all and hopefully the storm continues to dissipate and takes a more westerly path. 

Flapp_Jackson

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #76 on: August 22, 2018, 12:49:29 PM »
Liberal:  Someone who is passionately concerned with issues about which they know absolutely nothing.

2ahavvaii

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #77 on: August 22, 2018, 12:51:22 PM »
non emergency honolulu county workers are off tomorrow.  I dont believe an announcement was made for friday yet.

Flapp_Jackson

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #78 on: August 22, 2018, 12:55:53 PM »
While waters should be sufficiently warm, wind shear is expected to increase by Thursday, triggering
a weakening of Lane.

Despite that, Lane could still be a formidably strong hurricane near or off the Kona Coast of the Big Island
Thursday and may still be at hurricane strength near or off the coast of Maui County or Oahu Friday, areas
that are not accustomed to hurricane conditions.

Perhaps the most dangerous impact from Lane won't depend as much on its intensity or exact track, but rather
may result from its slowing forward speed in the form of heavy rainfall, as we'll detail in our impacts section below.

Residents in Hawaii, particularly in watch and warning areas, should complete storm preparations, including
putting together an emergency kit and a family emergency plan. Those with vacation plans to Hawaii through
Saturday should consider changing their plans.
Liberal:  Someone who is passionately concerned with issues about which they know absolutely nothing.

macsak

Re: Hurricane Season 2018
« Reply #79 on: August 22, 2018, 01:24:44 PM »
non emergency honolulu county workers are off tomorrow.  I dont believe an announcement was made for friday yet.

mayor announced Thursday and friday