Just saw an “analysis” from CNN forecasting Dems winning the house. There’s a large margin for error reported and not a whole lot of information to back up that forecast. The “analysis” indicated a 72% chance of Dems taking control of the House, same as they forecasted 72% chance of HRC winning in 2016.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/20/politics/the-forecast-republicans-keep-house/index.html

I don’t take polls that seriously. That said, get out and vote. At least show a changing of the tide.

Today in 1980, Reagan beat incumbent Carter. Hawaii was one of a handful of states that went with Carter don’t expect that to change any time soon, but a drive toward at “less blue” shown in the polls would be great to see.

I think Dems are about to get creamed. CNN is unreliable at best

I think Dems are about to get creamed. CNN is unreliable at best

The CNN part and forecast similarity to 2016 was the reason why I shared. I find it interesting how MSM approaches these things. As I said, I don’t take polls seriously, but still interesting that sores loke CNN continue to paint a positive trend for Dems. I just hope more people are seeing their hypocrisy.

As much as I dont want to admit it, they are probably correct.  Anyone want to bet? lol

As much as I dont want to admit it, they are probably correct.  Anyone want to bet? lol

bet?
"i bet i can bench more than mac"
"i bet i can shoot better than mac and mark"
"i like spicy things, i bet i can shoot pepper spray in my mouth"
https://2ahawaii.com/index.php?topic=28082.msg255467#msg255467
there's at least one more, but i forget already since you talk so much "stuff" it's difficult to remember them all

bet?
"i bet i can bench more than mac"
"i bet i can shoot better than mac and mark"
"i like spicy things, i bet i can shoot pepper spray in my mouth"
https://2ahawaii.com/index.php?topic=28082.msg255467#msg255467
there's at least one more, but i forget already since you talk so much "stuff" it's difficult to remember them all

I wanna see those bets settled, especially the spicy food one. 

Current poll numbers don't look promising for (R) in the House.  However (R) is not known for being upfront when it comes to pollsters and numbers tend to be a good bit higher.  Will be interesting to see where the fence sitters fall.

If (R) sit at home and don't show up to vote like the (D) did with Hilliary, since they thought she was a sure win, then the (R) needs to be concerned.  Ultimately the (D) are energized and don't expect them to stay at home.  While the (R) has been boosted by some recent turn of events, they absolutely cannot sit back or both the House and Senate are gone.

Remeber the fake news said hillary would win and had a 98.7% chance.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk

Current poll numbers don't look promising for (R) in the House.  However (R) is not known for being upfront when it comes to pollsters and numbers tend to be a good bit higher.  Will be interesting to see where the fence sitters fall.

If (R) sit at home and don't show up to vote like the (D) did with Hilliary, since they thought she was a sure win, then the (R) needs to be concerned.  Ultimately the (D) are energized and don't expect them to stay at home.  While the (R) has been boosted by some recent turn of events, they absolutely cannot sit back or both the House and Senate are gone.

I was wondering if the polls in 2016 served to energize Rs enough as well as got Ds complacent. That and like you said, the fence sitters as well as those scorned Bernie supporters.

I do hope more people vote, especially in HI. Yes, I get that the tide is very much BLUE here, but I do see the tide changing, even ever so slightly. That hopefully those who used to think their sears were solid start to wonder. Like in my district, longtime incumbent Galuteria lost in the primary. So hopefully that’s a sign of people waking up.

bet?
"i bet i can bench more than mac"
"i bet i can shoot better than mac and mark"
"i like spicy things, i bet i can shoot pepper spray in my mouth"
https://2ahawaii.com/index.php?topic=28082.msg255467#msg255467
there's at least one more, but i forget already since you talk so much "stuff" it's difficult to remember them all

You forgot about the fight bet. I forgot who it was between and who won? 

I thought this guy swore he would never post here again? Maybe he misses you, Mac? 

You forgot about the fight bet. I forgot whohttps://2ahawaii.com/index.php?board=50.0 it was between and who won? 

I thought this guy swore he would never post here again? Maybe he misses you, Mac? 

Oh, that instant de-arm clown?

Darmok and something?

He sure disappeared fast.

Obviously, no one can predict the future. And with CNN being the most unreliable cable news network. Also, they are the reining champs of fake news. I would guess they are probably lying again.

After hearing all the polls and news going around, I would guess the Reps lose the house and the Reps make a small gain in the senate. Obviously, not what I want. It’s just the general consensus that even the conservative news sources are conceding. They do also state a new poll that says only 37% of Reps admit to voting Republican to the pollsters. So believe what you want. Blue wave, Red wave. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.

The Hill is a very Left-leaning news outlet, which lends even more weight to this analysis.

The battle for control of the Senate is looking worse and worse for Democrats, who just a month ago saw a
path to the majority but now increasingly look like they could lose more seats and have a smaller minority next year.

Republicans have seen a bump in the polls in several key races since Labor Day. They believe momentum has
flipped to their party since the fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh polarized the electorate, hurting
Democrats running for reelection in states where President Trump is popular.

Two states where Democrats had hopes of pulling major upsets — Texas and Tennessee — have moved in favor of
Republicans. Races in Nevada and Arizona, two other states where Democrats had hoped to make gains, remain
tight, but Republicans feel more confident about their candidates.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/412243-democrats-slide-in-battle-for-senate


As long as the Senate is still in GOP hands and can confirm judges, including any more Supreme Court vacancies that arise, we'll be okay.

The House can't pass bills for Trump to sign without the approval of the Senate first.  Remember when Harry Reid refused to let any Republican-controlled House bills even come to the Senate floor for a reading, let alone a vote?

How many more of Dingy Harry's partisan games are going to come back and bite his party (e.g. the 51 vote cloture rule)?   

All I know is normal people usually get offended when self serving pols do stuff like Lazy Mazie going full-on HRC self destruct mode and telling half the people in the country that they need to shut up so that she can turn a supreme court nomination into a circus of hatred, petty revenge, and tantrum throwing.

Have you seen anything positive or constructive come out of the rank and file Democrats lately? Because I haven't and I'm pretty sure most of America hasn't either. They are trying to out-Trump Trump by being loud and obnoxious but his stuff works because he speaks directly to the working class while Democrats take normal jackoffs for granted when they aren't actively and publicly despising us.

Obviously, no one can predict the future. And with CNN being the most unreliable cable news network. Also, they are the reining champs of fake news. I would guess they are probably lying again.

After hearing all the polls and news going around, I would guess the Reps lose the house and the Reps make a small gain in the senate. Obviously, not what I want. It’s just the general consensus that even the conservative news sources are conceding. They do also state a new poll that says only 37% of Reps admit to voting Republican to the pollsters. So believe what you want. Blue wave, Red wave. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.

I browse CNN from time to time, mostly to see how things are being presented.  I have alerts on my phone for both Fox and CNN and I noticed that CNN wasn't sending notifications for a while.  It seemed to have stopped right around Kav's nomination and then picked up over the weekend.  Who knows why, maybe my phone, but I thought that was interesting that first notifications I received in a while was on opinion/forecasts of polls.  Still thinking back to propaganda style of Hitler, but in this case, I hope the public uses other avenues to get their news.  Albeit not very high hopes. 

All I know is normal people usually get offended when self serving pols do stuff like Lazy Mazie going full-on HRC self destruct mode and telling half the people in the country that they need to shut up so that she can turn a supreme court nomination into a circus of hatred, petty revenge, and tantrum throwing.

Have you seen anything positive or constructive come out of the rank and file Democrats lately? Because I haven't and I'm pretty sure most of America hasn't either. They are trying to out-Trump Trump by being loud and obnoxious but his stuff works because he speaks directly to the working class while Democrats take normal jackoffs for granted when they aren't actively and publicly despising us.

No, and I hope that more Americans are seeing that and getting fed up.  I don't know how far it will go, but I was happy to see more and more outrage being voiced expressing being fed up with Hirono.  Used to only see liberal and supportive comments, which it seemed to have turned.  At least what I noticed on comments for postings of HNN, KHON, etc.  I just hope more and more are waking up to that. 

I browse CNN from time to time, mostly to see how things are being presented.  I have alerts on my phone for both Fox and CNN and I noticed that CNN wasn't sending notifications for a while.  It seemed to have stopped right around Kav's nomination and then picked up over the weekend.  Who knows why, maybe my phone, but I thought that was interesting that first notifications I received in a while was on opinion/forecasts of polls.  Still thinking back to propaganda style of Hitler, but in this case, I hope the public uses other avenues to get their news.  Albeit not very high hopes. 
No, and I hope that more Americans are seeing that and getting fed up.  I don't know how far it will go, but I was happy to see more and more outrage being voiced expressing being fed up with Hirono.  Used to only see liberal and supportive comments, which it seemed to have turned.  At least what I noticed on comments for postings of HNN, KHON, etc.  I just hope more and more are waking up to that.

I think this caravan of people moving north is going to backfirethe MSM is covering it trying to blame trump
but i hope that the people in the middle see it for the threat that it is
i know my mom is pretty scared by it
but that makes her a RACIST

I think this caravan of people moving north is going to backfirethe MSM is covering it trying to blame trump
but i hope that the people in the middle see it for the threat that it is
i know my mom is pretty scared by it
but that makes her a RACIST

I read more about that the other day.  Something like 5k strong and growing.  Not sure of the truth (just what I read on the interwebz) about most of the "migrants" having pretty nice gear, including hiking boots, backpacks, etc.  Speculation (or even stronger depending who you talk to) is evidence that they are being supported.  But yeah, I think it is a very real threat and setting up for something pretty ugly. 

I can loan you a rifle so that you can protect your mom and her residence.  You know, since you do NOT own any of your own.  Just have to exchange them every 15 days.   

Fox's spin on the issue. . .

Top Democrats are working to manage expectations about a "blue wave" sweeping the party into power on Capitol Hill, urging caution about those predictions amid fresh signs that the midterms could be much closer than anticipated.

With just over two weeks to go before the critical elections, Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez said Monday that he doesn’t use the term “blue wave” to talk about a possible victory for his party. Even though House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi -- who has her eyes on the speaker's gavel -- said just days earlier they could be looking at a Democratic "tsunami," Perez predicted a tight race for control of Congress.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/sanders-and-perez-express-uncertainty-over-blue-wave-ahead-of-midterms

Another. . .

GOP candidates now 'dead even' with Democrats in most competitive House races, poll finds

Democrats' once-cushy advantage in key House races has all but disappeared with just over two weeks to go before November’s crucial midterm elections, a new NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll found.

While the poll found that Democrats still hold a large advantage overall, in districts rated as the most competitive by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, the parties are now in a dead heat on the question of which one should control Congress.

"It's a barnburner," Bill McInturff, a GOP pollster who conducted the survey with Democrat Fred Yang, told the Wall Street Journal. "There's a switch that's been flipped . . . They are engaging in the campaign and the process."

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-candidates-now-dead-even-with-democrats-in-most-competitive-house-races-poll-finds

Links and more info in original article:

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/10/22/key-state-tracking-republicans-leading-democrats-in-early-voting/

Key State Tracking: Republicans Leading Democrats in Early Voting…

Posted on October 22, 2018   by sundance

NBC News Data presents an analysis completed by TargetSmart showing key states and the registered affiliations of early voters.  Within the analysis Republican voters are leading Democrats in all states except Nevada.  [Note the Nevada result should not be a surprise because as we saw in the 2016 presidential campaign, there are several organized groups who coordinate bus loads of Californians into Nevada to vote in both states.]




Additionally, the underlying data must be troubling for democrats for two reasons.  First, NBC is admitting the ‘blue wave’ is in trouble; that’s not typical.  Secondly, within the NBC report they attempt to water down the result by saying that Democrats usually don’t turn out as well in votes before election day, and usually do better ‘on’ election day.  This is historically false.  Republicans usually vote much heavier on election day than democrats; and democrats have always relied upon pre-election day voting to carry them.