Venice cancels Carnival celebrations.

And in Germany Carnival, a car drives through the crowd...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/millions-of-chinese-firms-face-collapse-if-banks-dont-act/ar-BB10hAyF?ocid=spartandhp




US Markets headed down....

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/millions-of-chinese-firms-face-collapse-if-banks-dont-act/ar-BB10hAyF?ocid=spartandhp




US Markets headed down....

Yes the markets dropped a lot today. However, it remains to be seen how much exposure a lot of our companies actually have in China. Also, a lot of our companies are quite nimble and have either moved a lot of their manufacturing out of china, or are in the process, or could easily do so. I suspect retailers like Walmart might be hurt the worst but their stock didn’t take quite the hit that the rest of the market took today. Chip manufacturers and electronics manufacturers could take a huge hit since their manufacturing is harder to move to another country. Even Apple had already started building manufacturing plants in other countries. Travel and cruise stocks are dropping like rocks right now.

It still remains to be seen how big a hit we will take. But at the same time there are a lot of other countries in much worse shape than we are due to this. I heard this morning that an email from Amazon was leaked and they are scrambling to bring as much product from Asia (particularly China) over to the mainland and stockpile it for Prime Day which is coming up. So they should be able to supply customers without fear of running out. Other news I heard is that some companies that get parts from China are sending over employees with big suitcases to transport the parts they need directly from China in order to keep their supplies continuous. While Indonesia and Vietnam are increasing their manufacturing output.

I will say this, if China doesn’t contain the virus, and if it starts spreading throughout Europe the global economy will suffer greatly. And it will effect us to some extent. However, it could also work in our favor for selling what we already supply like oil. China is Iran’s biggest customer for oil. And Iran went from like 3 to 50 (or 150?) infections overnight. All their neighbors have closed their borders with Iran. And China has backed off on oil purchases causing oil prices to drop. Iran is in big trouble financially and could be even worse if they cannot contain the virus. But I think that works to our favor.

Financial news this morning also said the clothing industry here in the US will take a huge hit because most of the sportier type clothes like sweats and hoodies a t-shirts and such are made in China mostly. So if continued look for price gauging and eventually lack of stock. Once again, this is big news and it is bad news but our exposure generally speaking is not as bad off due to the Trump sanctions causing some companies to move away from China. Our exposure seems to not be so bad. And our economy is still strong despite the rest of the world. The big thing is how well the virus is contained in other countries. And eventually our country. So far no Pandemic but it could reach that level quickly. I think we have to just wait and see at this point.

Yes the markets dropped a lot today. However, it remains to be seen how much exposure a lot of our companies actually have in China. Also, a lot of our companies are quite nimble and have either moved a lot of their manufacturing out of china, or are in the process, or could easily do so. I suspect retailers like Walmart might be hurt the worst but their stock didn’t take quite the hit that the rest of the market took today. Chip manufacturers and electronics manufacturers could take a huge hit since their manufacturing is harder to move to another country. Even Apple had already started building manufacturing plants in other countries. Travel and cruise stocks are dropping like rocks right now.

It still remains to be seen how big a hit we will take. But at the same time there are a lot of other countries in much worse shape than we are due to this. I heard this morning that an email from Amazon was leaked and they are scrambling to bring as much product from Asia (particularly China) over to the mainland and stockpile it for Prime Day which is coming up. So they should be able to supply customers without fear of running out. Other news I heard is that some companies that get parts from China are sending over employees with big suitcases to transport the parts they need directly from China in order to keep their supplies continuous. While Indonesia and Vietnam are increasing their manufacturing output.

I will say this, if China doesn’t contain the virus, and if it starts spreading throughout Europe the global economy will suffer greatly. And it will effect us to some extent. However, it could also work in our favor for selling what we already supply like oil. China is Iran’s biggest customer for oil. And Iran went from like 3 to 50 (or 150?) infections overnight. All their neighbors have closed their borders with Iran. And China has backed off on oil purchases causing oil prices to drop. Iran is in big trouble financially and could be even worse if they cannot contain the virus. But I think that works to our favor.

Financial news this morning also said the clothing industry here in the US will take a huge hit because most of the sportier type clothes like sweats and hoodies a t-shirts and such are made in China mostly. So if continued look for price gauging and eventually lack of stock. Once again, this is big news and it is bad news but our exposure generally speaking is not as bad off due to the Trump sanctions causing some companies to move away from China. Our exposure seems to not be so bad. And our economy is still strong despite the rest of the world. The big thing is how well the virus is contained in other countries. And eventually our country. So far no Pandemic but it could reach that level quickly. I think we have to just wait and see at this point.

I agree, I see the US not being impacted as bad if it can be contained.  Auto industries are being hit.  A lot of the plastic pieces and parts all made in china.  Can't build cars without vent deflectors and headlight lenses... 

I agree, I see the US not being impacted as bad if it can be contained.  Auto industries are being hit.  A lot of the plastic pieces and parts all made in china.  Can't build cars without vent deflectors and headlight lenses...

Yeah, and even more infections in other countries effecting the markets again today. Then the CDC announces to us that we should be prepared for the virus to hit the US. That is going to effect the markets tomorrow as well I am sure.

Since we don't have a pandemic yet on our hands it still remains to be seen. I don't want things to get worse. We just have to wait and see what is in store for us...

Due to this the market futures dropped almost 1,000 points. So, the market opened down 997 points! About 3.5%. It has since come back up about 150 points as I write this. So it is not in free fall but a big sell off and not a crash.
Apple dropped 5% or 6% this morning. It seems like Mac is looking pretty smart this morning for his temporary flight to cash. Be ready to jump back in and make some more money.

Invest in 3M (face mask's) 3M United States 

Invest in 3M (face mask's) 3M United States 

Good call! 

Mayor London Breed declared a local emergency in San Francisco Tuesday amid the coronavirus outbreak,
despite there being no confirmed cases among the city's residents.

"Although there are still zero confirmed cases in San Francisco residents, the global picture is changing rapidly,
and we need to step-up preparedness," Breed said in a statement. "We see the virus spreading in new parts of
the world every day, and we are taking the necessary steps to protect San Franciscans from harm."

Meanwhile, the SF poop patrols continue to fight the ever-growing fecal matter "epidemic" that has created real cases of hepatitis, typhus and plague/

 

https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/san-francisco/sf-mayor-london-breed-declared-local-emergency-amid-coronavirus-outbreak/2241796/

SF is no longer a place I will visit. Actually, there is not many places in CA I will go ever again. Poop, plague, Corona Virus etc. is not very appealing.

This morning the market is up at the time of my writing this. The market closed down another 900 points or so yesterday. We are currently up 1.25% or over $300. The level is solidly over 27,000 at 27,414. Of course that could change quickly.

China is reporting a slowing of infections and deaths. But Europe is reporting an increase in infections. Our own fed gov announced that we will get the virus here. Not a matter of if, but when. SF over reacted and declared a state of emergency. Most of the expansion of the virus is in Asia and especially the oil patch countries. The price of oil dropped to below $50 today. That is VERY low considering the norms that have been set in the Trump era. Gold, silver are down as well as the 10 year bonds are up. Meaning that people are back buying stocks again and leaving safe havens. But not in a big way. So it looks like a lot of caution out there. Most of big stock guys are saying this is a buying opportunity. Apple is up almost 3% this morning. So if you didn’t jump in when the market opened you missed the surge.

    Wish I could post a pic to show you the naked aisle's and shelves (water, TP and other necessities) at Costco !

    Rockette said  "WonTon Chip's or Maui Chip's ?"

    I said "BOTH ! " 
"We're in obviously in crisis mode !  "
LOL

    Wish I could post a pic to show you the naked aisle's and shelves (water, TP and other necessities) at Costco !

    Rockette said  "WonTon Chip's or Maui Chip's ?"

    I said "BOTH ! " 
"We're in obviously in crisis mode !  "
LOL

I’d take both as well. 

I had no idea there is a run on stuff? I have not been out much lately due to the problems I am dealing with my wife. Fortunately, I don’t think we are going to need much before we leave the island. We have sufficient amounts of most everything except fresh foods. If you see me on your corner begging, please give generously! 

It looks like our markets are going into a correction. The market is selling off big time. But it is not in a free fall and not a panic, yet. It is a severe decline for sure. For this to happen right before my retirement could have meant disaster for me if I still had major holdings in the market. Man, I am glad I pulled out prematurely. Wait, what? But seriously, this was my exact fear when I started to plan my retirement.

Our economy is still strong. But these interruptions in the supply chain from China could throw us into a recession of some sort. Stay tuned...

we should sue China for economic damages....

A few takes from this mornings news.

The market is in a correction. It is apparent that there is panic in the markets and the selloff is huge. Only those who are trying to garner market share are calling this a crash. It could eventually be called a crash but at this time the experts are calling this a panic selloff. Our economy is still strong the the supply chain from China and Asia is going to effect it soon. Buying opportunities are upcoming. Because eventually the market will recover. All American companies that make virus masks are up to the tune of 40%-50% already. A lot of that are on the hopes that the Administration is considering enforcing a law from one of the wars forcing the virus mask companies to start manufacturing more masks. It seems the world is not really panicking yet. But the worldwide investors certainly are. The flight to safety such as the 10 year bond rate is significantly lower. One unintended consequence of all of this is that China’s demand for oil is way down so the price of crude is also way down. Look for lower gas prices. One last thing, the FED has said they won’t lower interest rates due to the virus. But the experts are saying to look for the FED to lower rates as much as a half percent in March. So lower mortgage rates as well are coming. Time to refi?

The bad news is that the virus seems to be spreading in Europe. Some countries/areas are restricting movement due to this. This is causing a lot of the market panic and the current selloff. China is claiming the spread is slowing in China. Can’t trust them but that is their official word. The American drug companies are developing a vaccination. Look for it in about a year. But Israel announced they may have a vaccine much sooner than that. They apparently were developing a method of using the body’s own immune system to fight viruses and they were already using a similar strain of Corona as their base. So it is possible a vaccine may be coming sooner than later. We’ll see.

A few takes from this mornings news.

The market is in a correction. It is apparent that there is panic in the markets and the selloff is huge. Only those who are trying to garner market share are calling this a crash. It could eventually be called a crash but at this time the experts are calling this a panic selloff. Our economy is still strong the the supply chain from China and Asia is going to effect it soon. Buying opportunities are upcoming. Because eventually the market will recover. All American companies that make virus masks are up to the tune of 40%-50% already. A lot of that are on the hopes that the Administration is considering enforcing a law from one of the wars forcing the virus mask companies to start manufacturing more masks. It seems the world is not really panicking yet. But the worldwide investors certainly are. The flight to safety such as the 10 year bond rate is significantly lower. One unintended consequence of all of this is that China’s demand for oil is way down so the price of crude is also way down. Look for lower gas prices. One last thing, the FED has said they won’t lower interest rates due to the virus. But the experts are saying to look for the FED to lower rates as much as a half percent in March. So lower mortgage rates as well are coming. Time to refi?

The bad news is that the virus seems to be spreading in Europe. Some countries/areas are restricting movement due to this. This is causing a lot of the market panic and the current selloff. China is claiming the spread is slowing in China. Can’t trust them but that is their official word. The American drug companies are developing a vaccination. Look for it in about a year. But Israel announced they may have a vaccine much sooner than that. They apparently were developing a method of using the body’s own immune system to fight viruses and they were already using a similar strain of Corona as their base. So it is possible a vaccine may be coming sooner than later. We’ll see.

DARPA is supposed to be doing the same (or similar) method for developing a vaccine as Israel. They guessed having something in 90 days (was over a week ago I read the report), BUT testing, trials, and first to “high priority” groups (not us).

DARPA is supposed to be doing the same (or similar) method for developing a vaccine as Israel. They guessed having something in 90 days (was over a week ago I read the report), BUT testing, trials, and first to “high priority” groups (not us).

Due to our restrictions we may not get the early vaccines. But we may not have the need for them that some countries do. I have been reading about how woefully lacking countries with socialized medicine actually are. Most countries with socialized medicine do not have trauma centers. If you are that bad off, they just can't save you. I read this morning that a famous doctor is going around now speaking about the lacking of facilities in countries with socialized medicine. He uses the example of Princess Diana. She was in that bad crash in France. They apparently left her in the tunnel for over an hour before they could figure out where to take her because France apparently does not have a trauma center or one nearby. She apparently died because they couldn't stop the internal bleeding. For over 3 hours after she got to the hospital. Why? Because of a lack of qualified people who know what they are doing and the equipment necessary to facilitate that. In other words, if she had been in that same accident in the U.S. she probably would have been saved. Of course this is all theoretical. But it is realistic. My point in all of this being that the countries that are able to treat the virus have the abilities to treat the symptoms. I heard a lot of people who got Corona died from malnutrition and dehydration. That would be almost unheard of in this country. I would venture to guess when this thing is all over with the rate of death from Corona in this country will be much lower than most other countries. Assuming the info I heard and my assumptions are correct.

Due to our restrictions we may not get the early vaccines. But we may not have the need for them that some countries do. I have been reading about how woefully lacking countries with socialized medicine actually are. Most countries with socialized medicine do not have trauma centers. If you are that bad off, they just can't save you. I read this morning that a famous doctor is going around now speaking about the lacking of facilities in countries with socialized medicine. He uses the example of Princess Diana. She was in that bad crash in France. They apparently left her in the tunnel for over an hour before they could figure out where to take her because France apparently does not have a trauma center or one nearby. She apparently died because they couldn't stop the internal bleeding. For over 3 hours after she got to the hospital. Why? Because of a lack of qualified people who know what they are doing and the equipment necessary to facilitate that. In other words, if she had been in that same accident in the U.S. she probably would have been saved. Of course this is all theoretical. But it is realistic. My point in all of this being that the countries that are able to treat the virus have the abilities to treat the symptoms. I heard a lot of people who got Corona died from malnutrition and dehydration. That would be almost unheard of in this country. I would venture to guess when this thing is all over with the rate of death from Corona in this country will be much lower than most other countries. Assuming the info I heard and my assumptions are correct.

Regarding restrictions and prioritization, yup.  I hear ya.  I was just surprised to hear that DARPA was working on it.  You can probably read between the lines on the whys. . .

Regarding socialized medicine, yup.  I hear that too.  I've been to countries where it's like that and f-me if I were to have needed medical attention when I was there.  I probably would have gotten better treatment going to a local Long's.

On the numbers, I can totally see the malnutrition and dehydration part.  That and the mortality rates will likely do down as the "mild to no symptoms" cases start getting documented via better diagnosing methods.  Time will tell, but I agree with ya.  Will have to watch as things start "heating up" in S Korea, Japan, and Europe. 

https://nypost.com/2020/02/27/americans-are-avoiding-corona-beer-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-survey-finds/

Nice!  Sales on Corona soon! 

Change virus name to  "Antigun Virus" .