Not if I don’t have a paycheck.
(And FlappDarmokMauidogMoosed you can take that Flapp dance and shove it up your ass. Acting like this is a light laughable situation for a lot of people is f’d up. Crossed the line in my opinion. And I couldn’t care less about your opinion on my opinion.)
To all the prior posts:
Two sides to the story? What’s the positive side.
I need to know to take some of the worry out of it.
20% unemployment in Hawaii. Over 200,000 unemployed. No definitive end in sight. Just got extended 2 weeks.
I’m assuming not many of the unemployed claiming benefits are getting retirement Social Security checks.
PPP funds exhausted in the first 3 weeks.
Don’t tell me not to knee jerk and spread propaganda because I haven’t done any of that.
What’s the positive side of the economy and how will it recover in a reasonable time?
I guess we could just keep printing money that’s worth nothing.
End of rant.
Hound,
You have read my posts, honest comments and accusations made against them, and my subsequent responses. I did not start a thread of panic or try to create drama; I started a thread to talk and discuss whatever facts available, analysis, and commentary from our forum community, with the hopes the resulting discussions will bring insights, not only in one's physical preparations, but also mindset going forward in the near future. The main reason I have and chosen not to spend too much time on positive aspects in the news is because those who are really suffering (i.e., people who have lost employment) have most likely already heard it and are intuitive enough to know that such information is more towards to calm people's fears, rather than offer specific answers on how it improves the living situation of the average joe on the street.
Having said that, as a practicing economist, I began posting economic publicly reported data, along with insight and analysis from my discussions with people who work in the government and colleagues from other countries. I stand-by everything I said and further share my view that things will not get back to normal anytime soon. In the short-term, the only semblance of recovery my colleagues and I are HOPING to see is during the upcoming Summer months, where it is HOPED that the rate of transmission between people will dramatically fall due to the high volume of UV rays that will bombard the planet at that time. IF the expectations are accurate, those unemployed should milk it for all its worth, reduce their debt, and financially prepare for even harder times. Once the Summer is gone, flu season returns and with no vaccines available at that time, you can bet Covid-19 will come back with a global vengeance. Coupled with the fact it will be highly doubtful that everyone in Hawaii who lost their job now will get it back in the third quarter of this year at the same rate of pay, the average joe should begin rethinking their living arrangements and living budgets now.
Now, the rebuttal of the scenario I shared above, will focus on the government stimulus actions to date that I will not go over, as it was accurately shared by Inspector and I AGREE with the theoretical outcome IF everything goes according to plan. However, the flaw I see in that view that is shared by many who have been unemployed are multifold. First, we know already that unemployment insurance will not have the funds to cover people for the next six months. Second, the money earmarked for small business in the latest stimulus package with the hopes of retaining workers has capped off. Third, with the prospects of a SAFE and RELIABLE vaccine realistically not being available in near term, there is no reason to believe the economic effects of Covid-19 will go away for the rest of this year. Fourth, we need to remember that the US economy is tied to the global economy and even if the US is open for business, the REST of the World may be not; hence customers and suppliers to the US might not be ready to conduct business yet. What this means is that there IS reason to have cautious hope, but the average joe will be better served still preparing for the worst.
It is at the beginning of the third quarter where will we truly see whether a global depression will be a reality. The third quarter of this year will signal the beginning of flu season and Covid-19. It is here my eyes and I suggest everyone else's eyes should be on the macroeconomic indicators. IF everything goes as planned, as recounted by Inspector, we should start seeing local, national, and global GDP rising. IF so, we can all laugh, eat chicken at Popeyes, and look forward to getting employment back on track to pre Covid-19 levels. IF there is any significant indication of GDP decline, this will be the sign that deflation will soon be upon us because there will be things to buy, but no one around with enough discretionary income to buy them. Moreover, with the trillions of US dollars printed up to that point, hyperinflation will rear its head to everyone's detriment sometime, thereafter.
As it stands, the truth of the matter for all those unemployed is that everyone affected will get their $1,200 plus $500 per child bailout that does not need to be reported in income taxes. Despite most of the money going to prop up Wall Street, the government has also made available, through already depleted, crumbs for small business to retain its workers. In the short-term, be ready to cash-in for some reopening of the economy during the Summer. However, save that money to prepare for any future contingencies in daily living expenditures. Finally, keep your eyes on the macroeconomic indicators come third quarter, as that will be the make or break economic moment for the year.
I look forward to getting all kinds of information and discourse to what I just shared because I hope I am totally wrong. However, I still feel we need to be constantly reminded of what could go wrong, as that is what has happened and what everyone has been responding to till this point.
Be safe, healthy, and prepare as best you can Hound.
