Trump rallies as super spreader events
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3722299
Every one of the people putting their name on that paper are in the Stanford University's Department of Economics.
How do economics staff members of a California university have the qualifications to write about Trump's rallies as they relate to anything scientific or biological? Other than this being purely a statistical exercise, it doesn't.
There was no contact tracing, mask usage or other direct evidence provided for the sample. Since the entire nation has seen an increase ("spike") in reported cases, most of whom did not visit a Trump rally nor hang out with those attendees unless they social distanced and wore masks (like they all tell us to do), the exclusion of the current rise in cases as a factor in Trump rally attendance related cases is totally unscientific.
This sentence in their abstract says all we need to know:
"There is reason to
fear that such gatherings can serve as “superspreader events,”
severely undermining efforts to
control the pandemic "
Fear and control. We must be afraid, even though realistically there is NO WAY to control a pandemic. To assume anyone can control a virus for which there is no vaccine nor herd immunity is arrogant and/or just plain stupid. The only thing they can control is human behavior. That's the underlying purpose of this paper.
"We conclude that the rallies LIKELY LED TO more than 700 deaths," and they EXTRAPOLATED approximately 30,000 infections occurred as a result of these rallies. If we have faith (believe) in these calculated cases of COVID-19, that's 700/30,000 death rate, or .02333. So, using a virus that has a reported death rate of less than one percent, they somehow calculated a death rate of 2.33%? Is there something about a Trump rally that increases the likelihood of dying if you get infected? I'm curious, because the death rate of their sample size is almost 3 times that of the national rate.
Other studies of individual rallies showed no increase in infection nor death rates. They state that in the paper, but blow it off as too simplistic. Then the authors stated they used 10 weeks of follow-up stats (10 wks ~= 2.5 months), to define whether the effects of the rally were negative. A lot can happen in 2.5 months that has NOTHING WHATSOEVER to do with rally attendance.
All of that is just from a quick glance. I don't trust this paper enough to fully analyze their extrapolated results.
Looks like someone needed to burn some grant money on an anti-Trump project before he's no longer President.
