Odds are the en banc panel will decide against the 2a. I give it a 65 to 35% chance against, with the 35% being a minimal win with a lesser effect on other lawsuits in the pipeline.
I base those odds on this is the 2nd time it is going en banc. The 1st time Benitez in district court decided for the 2A based on history and tradition so the 9th en banc should have decided in favor of the 2a after the SCOTUS Bruen ruling. Instead it was remanded back to district court.
The 9th Cir judge makeup hasn't changed since then.
I agree that the membership of the 9th Circus hasn't changed. But, what has changed are:
- the increased number of pro-2A parties willing to appeal to SCOTUS now versus previously when the justices were mostly anti-2A,
- the willingness of the SCOTUS to take on 2A cases that would have been declined in the past, and
- the likelihood that the 2A side of cases will prevail on the merits now versus the convoluted and subjective "interests of the state" arguments.
Bruen reshaped the playing field, so I have a gut feeling -- nothing more -- that states are going to see their increased number of anti-gun laws as only creating a massive wall of precedence they will have to live with long after the makeup of the SCOTUS changes.
Jusitces pass away, but sound Constitutional precedents live on for decades -- if not centuries.