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Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. (Read 2562 times)

rhayder

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« on: November 02, 2024, 08:19:47 PM »
White women independents are breaking for Harris in Iowa of all places. The blowout begins. MAGA losing to democracy and freedom!


https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/



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macsak

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2024, 09:03:10 PM »
yup
it's over...

Quote from: rhayder on November 02, 2024, 08:19:47 PM
White women independents are breaking for Harris in Iowa of all places. The blowout begins. MAGA losing to democracy and freedom!


https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

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rpoL98

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2024, 09:47:57 PM »
we're done for, it's over.  the country is toast.  we're headed for a 1930's depression.  buy gold.

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QUIETShooter

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2024, 10:04:06 AM »
If MAGA loses it will definitely not be to democracy and freedom.
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Sometimes you gotta know when to save your bullets.

changemyoil66

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2024, 10:10:47 AM »
Right on que.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

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hvybarrels

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2024, 12:21:56 PM »
Oh look another super scientific poll run by rabid leftists

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The F in Communism stands for Food

hvybarrels

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2024, 01:57:22 PM »
Sure enough

Just sad that people keep falling for this stuff


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The F in Communism stands for Food

rpoL98

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2024, 02:01:08 PM »
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Flapp_Jackson

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2024, 02:02:59 PM »
it's amazing!

All the polls must have been wrong!

Now, ONE poll is right, and ALL THE OTHER POLLS are still wrong1

Give a dog a bone, and she'll latch onto it for dear life.
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The reasonable man adapts himself to the world;
the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself.
Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
-- George Bernard Shaw

Flapp_Jackson

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2024, 05:31:18 PM »
IOWA POLL

Quote
A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense survey of Iowa likely
voters finds 53% support former President Donald Trump and 43% support
Vice President Kamala Harris for president in 2024.

Three percent are undecided and 1% plan to vote for a third party. With
undecided voters’ support accounted for, Trump’s overall support increases
to 54% and Harris to 45%.



https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-iowa-poll-trump-53-harris-43/
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The reasonable man adapts himself to the world;
the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself.
Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
-- George Bernard Shaw

Flapp_Jackson

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2024, 05:42:48 PM »
BTW, Emerson College Polling is rated #10 among all presidential election polling services in the US.

The Des Moines Register doesn't even make the list.

This is from the ABC News 538 site, which tracks these stats for elections.

It pays to do research, so you know you aren't falling for another MSM misinformation trap.  The MSM is parroting the phrase "gold standard for Iowa polling," when their methods and track record don't even compare to any other polling sources.  I repeat -- these guys didn't even make the list.

As Trump even recognizes, last minute polls that supposedly show Harris leading in opposition to almost every other poll is an attempt to suppress voter turnout.  People who believe their candidate is too far behind to win are often discouraged from suffering the time and inconvenience of casting a ballot at the polls.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
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The reasonable man adapts himself to the world;
the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself.
Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
-- George Bernard Shaw

rpoL98

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2024, 05:49:09 PM »
well, I sure as hell hope the polls are right, for once.  but you know how that goes.






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rhayder

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2024, 07:34:07 PM »
J. Ann Selzer is the #1 pollster in the country and consults for several polling organizations across the country other than the Des Moines Register. She's also more transparent than others and does not weight based on past history of the electorate. All the details are included in the PDF attached to the Des Moines Register article if you choose to do your own resources. Call people for yourself and ask the questions and let's see the results you get.

Earlier Selzer and Co. had Trump 18 points above Biden. It appears the problem in Iowa is that women are pissed off over a 6 week abortion ban recently passed and are now swinging strongly for Harris as a result.

« Last Edit: November 03, 2024, 07:39:45 PM by rhayder »
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rhayder

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2024, 07:46:04 PM »
Selzer responded to Trump's post in an email to Newsweek, saying, "These are the kinds of comments seen for virtually any poll, including mine. The Des Moines Register includes a methodology statement with each story they publish. It's the same methodology used to show Trump winning Iowa in the final polls in 2016 and 2020. It would not be in my best interest, or that of my clients—The Des Moines Register and Mediacom—to conjure fake numbers."

https://www.newsweek.com/ann-selzer-poll-iowa-trump-response-1979252
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Flapp_Jackson

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2024, 08:29:52 PM »
Quote from: rhayder on November 03, 2024, 07:34:07 PM
J. Ann Selzer is the #1 pollster in the country and consults for several polling organizations across the country other than the Des Moines Register. She's also more transparent than others and does not weight based on past history of the electorate. All the details are included in the PDF attached to the Des Moines Register article if you choose to do your own resources. Call people for yourself and ask the questions and let's see the results you get.

Earlier Selzer and Co. had Trump 18 points above Biden. It appears the problem in Iowa is that women are pissed off over a 6 week abortion ban recently passed and are now swinging strongly for Harris as a result.

Those women aren't very bright if they blame Trump for a "6 week abortion ban" that their state government enacted.

in fact, it's not a ban.  It just means abortions after 6 weeks are stricter now.

Seems to be a pattern with you TDS types.
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The reasonable man adapts himself to the world;
the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself.
Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
-- George Bernard Shaw

Flapp_Jackson

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2024, 08:35:54 PM »
Quote from: rhayder on November 03, 2024, 07:46:04 PM
Selzer responded to Trump's post in an email to Newsweek, saying, "These are the kinds of comments seen for virtually any poll, including mine. The Des Moines Register includes a methodology statement with each story they publish. It's the same methodology used to show Trump winning Iowa in the final polls in 2016 and 2020. It would not be in my best interest, or that of my clients—The Des Moines Register and Mediacom—to conjure fake numbers."

https://www.newsweek.com/ann-selzer-poll-iowa-trump-response-1979252

A methodology statement doesn't make any poll better than others.  It might make the process less arbitrary, but the results can't account for every variable.  Polling relies on truthful responses from a well-selected population.  You'll never have a methodology that creates an infallible poll.

The reason there's a 3.4% margin of error is because they have to calculate that based on the methods they chose.  Harris having a 3% lead is insignificant.

Put that word in your vocabulary.  "Insignificant."  That means unless the results show Harris is at least 3.4% higher than Trump, the candidates are statistically dead even.  In fact, if both candidates' numbers are 3.4% higher than polled, then Harris needs a 6.8% lead to be ahead, based on the calculated margin of error.

But, when Harris is set to lose, you'll grasp at any straws to make yourself feel better.

Denial is understandable,  Try talking a long walk.  You need to chill out.
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The reasonable man adapts himself to the world;
the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself.
Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
-- George Bernard Shaw

eyeeatingfish

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2024, 12:31:35 AM »
Quote from: rhayder on November 02, 2024, 08:19:47 PM
White women independents are breaking for Harris in Iowa of all places. The blowout begins. MAGA losing to democracy and freedom!


https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/


What is the point of posts like this? None of this matters, only Nov 5 numbers matter. Why celebrate what is basically a mathematical prediction?
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Flapp_Jackson

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2024, 02:11:07 AM »
Quote from: eyeeatingfish on November 04, 2024, 12:31:35 AM
What is the point of posts like this? None of this matters, only Nov 5 numbers matter. Why celebrate what is basically a mathematical prediction?

He's losing, and he wants to spread hate and discontent now before the other shoe drops.

 :geekdanc: :popcorn:
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The reasonable man adapts himself to the world;
the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself.
Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
-- George Bernard Shaw

changemyoil66

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2024, 10:29:57 AM »
Quote from: eyeeatingfish on November 04, 2024, 12:31:35 AM
What is the point of posts like this? None of this matters, only Nov 5 numbers matter. Why celebrate what is basically a mathematical prediction?

Xhe wants people to think voting Harris is the way to go cause she's potentially leading in 1 area.
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astroboy

Re: Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day.
« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2024, 11:06:15 AM »
Quote from: rhayder on November 02, 2024, 08:19:47 PM
White women independents are breaking for Harris in Iowa of all places. The blowout begins. MAGA losing to democracy and freedom!


https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/


It was pointed out to Selzer that more Democrats were polled than Republicans.
She stated that she had no idea what the D or the R next to the focus group meant. HUHH?
She is either lying or is exhibiting signs of mental decline given the business experience she is supposed
to have.. Does she also like ice cream or have no.2 issues or sniff youngsters hair? 
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