Assessment of the 1994 Federal AWB: Impacts on Gun Markets and Gun Violence (Read 2053 times)

Bunker

This is an old report but addresses many of the issues/concerns regarding a renewed ban and is supported by thorough facts, research and analysis. It's 114 pages but filled with excellent information regarding what the ban specifically accomplished, public opinion, economic impact, statistical analysis, etc, etc. This is a research report submitted to the U.S. Department of Justice in July, 2004. The research was supported by National Institute of Justice (U.S. Department of Justice) grants 2003-IJ-CX-1029 to the University of Pennsylvania and 98-IJ-CX-0039 to the Urban Institute.  The Jerry Lee Center of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania provided additional support. I extracted a few interesting highlights, among many:

The Ban’s Success in Reducing Criminal Use of the Banned Guns and Magazines Has Been Mixed
•  Following implementation of the ban, the share of gun crimes involving AWs declined by 17% to 72% across the localities examined for this study (Baltimore, Miami, Milwaukee, Boston, St. Louis, and Anchorage), based on data covering all or portions of the 1995-2003 post-ban period.  This is consistent with patterns found in national data on guns recovered by police and reported to ATF.
•  The decline in the use of AWs has been due primarily to a reduction in the use of assault pistols (APs), which are used in crime more commonly than assault rifles (ARs).  There has not been a clear decline in the use of ARs, though assessments are complicated by the rarity of crimes with these weapons and by substitution of post-ban rifles that are very similar to the banned AR models.
•  However, the decline in AW use was offset throughout at least the late 1990s by steady or rising use of other guns equipped with LCMs in jurisdictions studied (Baltimore, Milwaukee, Louisville, and Anchorage).  The failure to reduce LCM use has likely been due to the immense stock of exempted pre-ban magazines, which has been enhanced by recent imports.

10.2.  Potential Consequences of Reauthorizing, Modifying, or Lifting the Assault Weapons Ban
10.2.1.  Potential Consequences of Reauthorizing the Ban As Is
Should it be renewed, the ban might reduce gunshot victimizations.  This effect is likely to be small at best and possibly too small for reliable measurement.  A 5% reduction in gunshot victimizations is perhaps a reasonable upper bound estimate of the ban’s potential impact (based on the only available estimate of gunshot victimizations resulting from attacks in which more than 10 shots were fired), but the actual impact is likely to be smaller and may not be fully realized for many years into the future, particularly if pre-ban LCMs continue to be imported into the U.S. from abroad.  Just as the restrictions imposed by the ban are modest – they are essentially limits on weapon accessories like LCMs, flash hiders, threaded barrels, and the like – so too are the potential benefits. In time, the ban may be seen as an effective prevention measure that stopped further spread of weaponry considered to be particularly dangerous (in a manner similar to federal restrictions on fully automatic weapons).  But that conclusion will be contingent on further research validating the dangers of AWs and LCMs.

10.2.2.  Potential Consequences of Modifying the Ban
We have not examined the specifics of legislative proposals to modify the AW ban.  However, we offer a few general comments about the possible consequences of such efforts, particularly as they relate to expanding the range of the ban as some have advocated. Gun markets react strongly merely to debates over gun legislation.  Indeed, debate over the AW ban’s original passage triggered spikes upwards of 50% in gun distributors’ advertised AW prices. In turn, this prompted a surge in AW production in 1994. Therefore, it seems likely that discussion of broadening the AW ban to additional firearms would raise prices and production of the weapons under discussion.  (Such market reactions may already be underway in response to existing proposals to expand the ban, but we have not investigated this issue.)  Heightened production levels could saturate the market for the weapons in question, depressing prices and delaying desired reductions in crimes with the weapons, as appears to have happened with banned ARs. Mandating further design changes in the outward features of semiautomatic weapons (e.g., banning weapons having any military-style features) may not produce benefits beyond those of the current ban.  As noted throughout this report, the most important feature of military-style weapons may be their ability to accept LCMs, and this feature has been addressed by the LCM ban and the LCMM rifle ban.  Whether changing other features of military-style firearms will produce measurable benefits is unknown. Finally, curbing importation of pre-ban LCMs should help reduce crimes with LCMs and possibly gunshot victimizations.  Crimes with LCMs may not decline substantially for quite some time if millions of LCMs continue to be imported into the U.S.

10.2.3.  Potential Consequences of Lifting the Ban    
If the ban is lifted, it is likely that gun and magazine manufacturers will reintroduce AW models and LCMs, perhaps in substantial numbers. In addition, AWs grandfathered under the 1994 law may lose value and novelty, prompting some of their lawful owners to sell them in secondary markets, where they may reach criminal users. Any resulting increase in crimes with AWs and LCMs might increase gunshot victimizations, though this effect could be difficult to discern statistically. It is also possible, and perhaps probable, that new AWs and LCMs will eventually be used to commit mass murder.  Mass murders garner much media attention, particularly when they involve AWs (Duwe, 2000).  The notoriety likely to accompany mass murders if committed with AWs and LCMs, especially after these guns and magazines have been deregulated, could have a considerable negative impact on public perceptions, an effect that would almost certainly be intensified if such crimes were committed by terrorists operating in the U.S.

https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/204431.pdf