Details from Grok:
Cannibal CME Arrival Time in HST
The cannibal CME—formed by the merger of leading CMEs from November 9–10, 2025, with a trailing one from November 11's X5.1 flare—is expected to interact with Earth's magnetosphere as follows:
Initial Glancing Impact (Leading Edge): Evening of November 11, 2025, around 6:00 PM HST (1:00 AM UTC on November 12).
This may cause minor effects as the slower CME begins influencing the magnetic field.
Full Merger and Peak Arrival: Midday on November 12, 2025, around 10:00 AM HST (3:00 PM UTC).
The faster trailing CME catches up, amplifying the event into a single, intensified shock wave.
Lingering Effects: Continuing through November 13, 2025, with potential secondary disturbances fading by late afternoon HST on November 13.
These timings are based on NOAA models, which predict a travel time of ~2–3 days from the Sun at speeds of 800–1,200 km/s. Real-time adjustments may occur as the CME nears SOHO/STEREO observatories ~1 million miles from Earth.
Timeline of Possible Negative Effects
The event is forecast to produce G3 (strong) to G4 (severe) geomagnetic storms, with a low chance of escalating to G5 (extreme) if the merger is fully coherent. Negative effects stem from induced currents, particle radiation, and magnetic field fluctuations. Below is a chronological timeline, focusing on global impacts (Hawaii/Honolulu may see minimal direct effects due to its equatorial latitude, but indirect ones like satellite disruptions are possible).
Nov 11, Afternoon–Evening (2:00 PM–6:00 PM)
G1–G2 (Minor–Moderate)
- Minor high-frequency (HF) radio blackouts, especially over Pacific/Atlantic regions.
- Slight GPS signal scintillation (fading) for aviation/marine navigation.
- Early satellite surface charging in low-Earth orbit (LEO).Low risk to public; airlines may adjust polar routes. Monitor FAA NOTAMs.
Nov 11, Evening–Overnight (6:00 PM–6:00 AM Nov 12)
G2–G3 (Moderate–Strong)
- Intermittent HF radio/GPS degradation at mid-to-high latitudes.
- Increased drag on LEO satellites (e.g., Starlink), risking orbital decay.
- Voltage fluctuations in power grids, potentially tripping transformers in vulnerable areas (e.g., northern U.S./Canada).
- Radiation spikes for high-altitude flights; crew/passenger exposure up ~10x normal.Moderate; power operators on alert. Use apps like Space Weather Live for real-time Kp index.
Nov 12, Morning–Afternoon (6:00 AM–6:00 PM)
G3–G4 (Strong–Severe) Peak
- Widespread HF radio blackouts (hours-long) and GPS errors (up to 10–20m inaccuracy).
- Severe satellite disruptions: orientation issues, solar panel degradation, and up to 50% signal loss for comms/GNSS.
- Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) causing power outages or blackouts in northern grids (e.g., Quebec-style events).
- Enhanced auroral activity, but also pipeline corrosion risks from GICs.High; critical infrastructure (e.g., grids, pipelines) to implement protections like grounding switches. NOAA advises staying indoors during flights if possible.
Nov 12, Evening–Nov 13, Morning (6:00 PM Nov 12–6:00 AM Nov 13)
G3 (Strong)
- Lingering satellite drag and radio/GPS issues.
- Potential secondary power grid instability if G4 persists.
- Minor mobile network hiccups from satellite relays.Decreasing; recovery begins as Bt (magnetic field strength) drops below 10 nT.Nov 13, Daytime (After 6:00 AM)G1–G2 (Minor–Moderate)- Residual GPS scintillation and satellite adjustments.
- Full recovery for most systems unless new flares occur.Low; post-event assessments for any damage.
Key Risks for Honolulu/Hawaii:
Primarily indirect: Possible HF radio blackouts affecting maritime/aviation, and brief GPS interruptions for rideshares/navigation apps.
No significant power grid threats (equatorial location shields from strongest GICs).
Satellite-dependent services (e.g., internet via Starlink) could see brief outages.
For live updates, check NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center or the Aurora Forecast app. If conditions intensify, effects could mirror the April 2025 G4 event, which caused temporary satellite anomalies but no widespread blackouts.