I've seen a crackhead guy stealing my neighbors empty can bin. He said he got permission, which was a lie of course. With the law of getting money back from cans, this created another venue for crackheads to make money to support their habbit.
My neighbor 2 doors down posted a video on the Ring Neighbors app of 2 guys in a Tacoma stopping at the curb by his house. He had 3 very large clear plastic bags full of cans next to his garage. The 2 jumped out, grabbed the cans, and were gone in about 10 seconds. Not worried about any surveillance cameras or anyone catching them. It was about 7:30 am IIRC.
If the redemption payment increases, that kind of theft is just going to get worse.
Personally, when looking at the prices of canned and bottled beverages, I don't think about the recycling fee as a redemption "discount". It's money out of my pocket at the point of purchase no mater what it's for.
It takes time to collect enough containers to justify the time needed for cleaning, counting bottles and cans, inspecting them to ensure they have the Hi-5 logo, and driving to the recycling center, waiting in line, etc. it also costs a little money for water to rinse out the containers and reserve enough space in your home to store them before recycling. At present, you get $10 for recycling 200 containers if you have them counted. Is the time, effort, gas, water and storage space worth that $10? Would $20 make it more worthwhile? For those who religiously recycle, there's no difference other than the state holds onto more of your money until you make the time to redeem containers. For those tossing containers in the trash, I think it depends on the number of containers they go through.
The state anticipates (or hope for) a certain percentage of deposits to go unclaimed. That's money for the state. Raising the fee means the estimated $58M collected each year will go up to $106M. If the percentage of redemptions remain close to the same, that's a nice little bump of about 45% to the state.
According to the Hi-5 website, the program collects 6 cents per container. 5 cents is a returnable deposit, and 1 cent goes to the recycling centers.
However, the state pays 2-4 cents per container for recycling and shipping, 1-3 cents of which comes out of everyone's taxes whether or not they purchase beverages in recyclable containers.